Sea Level Rise Slowing Down Around The UK’s Coast
By Paul Homewood
NOAA have an interesting new toy, for analysing tidal gauge data. They use the same data as the PSMSL, the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, which is based in Liverpool, but have some good graphing options.
Let’s take a look at the three long running stations in the UK, that NOAA list.
We see that the rate of sea level rise ranges between 0.72mm and 1.91mm a year. It is worth noting the the land is rising by about 0.5mm a year in Aberdeen, and sinking by a similar amount at Newlyn. There is little change at North Shields.
http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/22994
When taking the land movements into account, the sea level rises seem to be broadly in line with global trends in the past century, of about 6-7 inches.
But NOAA also have graphs, which show how the trends are changing. They define it thus:
Linear mean sea level trends were calculated in overlapping 50-year increments for stations with sufficient historical data. The variability of each 50-year trend, with 95% confidence interval, is plotted against the mid-year of each 50-year period. The solid horizontal line represents the linear mean sea level trend using the entire period of record.
We find, therefore, that sea level rise has actually slowed down during the 20thC at North Shields and Newlyn, and is below the mean. Although at Aberdeen the rate has been increasing recently, it is still below that of the early 20thC.
There clearly is no evidence at all that sea level rise is accelerating around the UK’s coast.
Meanwhile, Julia and her chums at the Met Office tell us :
Sea level along the English Channel has already risen by about 12cm in the last 100 years. With the warming we are already committed to over the next few decades, a further 11-16cm of sea level rise is likely by 2030. [Or 4 to 6 inches].
At Newlyn, which is in the western entrance to the English Channel, sea level is rising at less than 2mm a year, which, according to my calculator, makes an inch by 2030.
Either there is something wrong with my calculator, or there is something wrong with our “top climate scientists”.
Sources
All NOAA data is here.
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_global.shtml
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Paul, Don’t forget that Great Britain is still in a geological “bounce” after the last ice age. In other words, as the ice from the last ice age retreated, the thickest ice leaving Scotland last, there has been a rise in the land in the northwest Highlands (as the weight of the ice reduced) and a commensurate dip in the southeast of England. That is: there is a rise in the northwest and a dip in the southeast. This explains why there are many “raised beaches” in the Northwest and the Channel coast is dipping. It also explains the calculations for the design life of the Thames Barrier of approx 60 years in the full knowledge that that end of the UK was dropping.
So, sea level rise due to “Global Warming” must deduct the above alterations in land height due to this effect. (Sorry, can’t remember what they are but it must be somewhere out there on the web).
David Eyles
That’s right.
The map shows this well.
If anything the rise seems to have stalled for the past few years. I thought the missing heat giving rise to the “pause” was going into the deep oceans. Perhaps not?
Let’s face it Paul the Met Office just LIE when it suits them or the Government, they have no integrity whatsoever.
Oceans reside in basins floored by tectonic plates, which are sliding around. As such, discussions of sea level in millimeters and centimeters is silly. Until we can precisely monitor the pacific plate, we have no idea what we are talking about.
“something wrong with our top scientists ” Would that be integrity ?
They may be obeying The Schneiderian Directive “[We] have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts we may have. “
Reblogged this on CraigM350.