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SE Asia CO2 Emissions Set To Double By 2040, As Fossil Fuel Use Continues To Rise.

September 28, 2016

By Paul Homewood 





I made the point recently that it is not just China and India who will be expanding their use of fossil fuels in the next two decades. The same applies to many other Asian nations.

Last year the IEA published its Southeast Asia Energy Outlook. This is the Overview:








Note just how little renewables contribute to rising energy demand. Excluding hydro and bio, it amounts to a mere 42 Mtoe extra a year by 2040 (compared to 2013). Yet fossil fuels are expected to jump by 401 Mtoe. (Note that bioenergy is mainly solid biomass used for household cooking, ie wood!)

What is also striking is that fossil fuel consumption continues to rise well after 2030, as Figure 2.3 illustrates: 




There is a babyish belief that developing Asian countries will suddenly switch away from fossil fuels after 2030. As I have repeatedly pointed out, none of them are going to suddenly shut down power stations that are only a few years old, or, for that matter, return their people to a low energy future from which they have just escaped.


All of this will have the expected effect on CO2 emissions, which will more than double by 2040:





Figure 2.9 shows how expensive wind and solar power are, despite regular claims to the contrary.





To put all these figures into perspective, we can compare them with the UK.

Last year, fossil fuel consumption in the UK amounted to 156 Mtoe. The projections for SE Asia are for an increase of 401 Mtoe by 2040.

In fact, the UK, France and Italy could all stop using fossil fuels completely and their saving would be totally cancelled out by the extra SE Asia would use.




The IEA projections are based on what they call the “New Policies Scenario”. This is regarded as the central scenario, which they describe thus:


Our central scenario, the New Policies Scenario, assumes the continuation of existing policies and measures as well as the cautious implementation of policy proposals, even if they are yet to be formally adopted. The projections do not assume the deployment of breakthrough technologies, but do allow for efficiency improvements and further cost reductions of energy technologies that are in use or are approaching commercialisation.


In other words, it most definitely is not a “Business as Usual” case, but a realistic assessment which takes account of existing climate policies.

  1. The Old Man permalink
    September 28, 2016 7:14 pm

    (Climate warming in the air) + (Arctic Wadham Units panic) +(Western Political sellout of the people) = (China on a roll) + (India on the Move)

  2. Graeme No.3 permalink
    September 28, 2016 9:14 pm

    South Australia entire State blacked out (except for those with diesel generators).
    Both coal fired and CCGT had been shut down because of the dumping of wind electricity made them uneconomic. A storm hit and all the wind turbines shut down due to higher wind speeds and solar doesn’t work in heavily overcast dusk skies nor at night.
    A interruption to supply resulted in a blackout. SA gets nearly 40% of its electricity from wind, but they can’t work unless there is power on the grid [voltage, phase angle etc.] the cause of the interruption not known at the present and the Premier is frantically spinning (interconnector to Vic. damaged, not damaged, not at fault, waffle, waffle). Conjecture that It was necessary to fire up one of the ‘closed’ CCGT plants to give a black start. Electricity slowly being restored.
    The storm has been described as ‘the worst since 1953 or 1948 or as due to climate change by the usual suspects.

    • September 28, 2016 10:00 pm

      Chickens always come home to roost. Hope you are not in SA or have a personal backup genset like my condo building here in South Florida because of hurricanes.
      A likely foretaste of UK this approaching winter. Nat Grid has effectively zero real inertial reserve. Minus zero if north south high voltage transmission deficiencies are also considered. Shutting industrial consumption and bringing on thousands of small diesel gen sets (the ‘official’ plan, which any EE knows won’t work) is too slow if there is a fault anywhere. Tripoffs happen in one half wave form at the zero point , that is 1/2 of 1/50 of a second in UK. Won’t be a storm like SA, will be a high pressure cold clear evening with no wind and demand peaking at dinner tIme.
      In the great 2003 August blackout that took down Ontario (Toronto went dark), and everything in US from Ohio to New Jersey and points north (Pittsburg, New York, Boston all went dark), a single generating unit in Cleveland tripped off because of mechanical problems about 1 pm on a hot afternoon at peak air conditioning load. 30 minutes later it started when a tranmission line sagged from overload heating and shut off. Grid demand immediately exceeded supply and generators overloaded and started tripping off. By 4:30pm ~280 generating units had tripped off to protect themselves. And the region was dark. Black start for the whole region took 4 days. People died. But not from lack of AC.
      In the UK, people will die from lack of heat and lack of electricity to power fuel pumps. Here in SF after Katrina and Wilma, it is the law that all gas stations and grocery stores must have backup generation to remain operational after a hurricane.

      • John F. Hultquist permalink
        September 29, 2016 3:55 am

        I’ve been watching the Easterly Wave move across the Atlantic and thinking you might need that generator.
        They have named the storm Matthew and think it will turn north Saturday PM, and head toward the Bahamas.
        Too soon, really. But it is time to test the unit.

      • September 29, 2016 7:59 am

        .. and how would having a generator help if we were cashless and you needed to buy gas or groceries on a card? It is no good having power in isolation, in the modern world, you are either connected, or you are not.
        Loss of power will produce a perfect storm somewhere soon. People will realise that having everything electronic is not going to cut it. Look at Puerto Rico last week.
        Funny, but there has been nothing obvious about Australia in the UK MSM,


  3. September 29, 2016 6:33 am

    We are too poor to play the rich people’s game. Let us get rich first. Then we can afford to play the climate game.

  4. September 29, 2016 9:27 am

    Meanwhile, in nearby Australia, greenies are in raptures whenever a coal-fired power station closes, making no difference whatsoever to the regional CO2 flux, but of course they don’t really care about that, its all about gaining greenie points, and gaining control of the economy.

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