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June NOT The Driest On Record

July 5, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

It has been wrongly reported that June was the driest on record in the UK. For instance, the Sun:

 

image

JUNE has been the driest ever on record thanks to the scorching heatwave blasting Brits – and it may last until AUGUST.

The mercury nudged 33C in North Wales last week as the UK basked in glorious sunshine – with 35C temperatures predicted for the next few weeks.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6678429/uk-weather-heatwave-drought-august-temperature-record-rainfall/

 

 

In reality, there have been eight years with drier Junes since 1910 alone:

 

UK Rainfall - June

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly

 

It is true that it was the driest June in the South-east and Central Southern England region, although the 3.0mm is not significantly different to the previous record of 3.3mm in 1925.

Amidst all of the talk of drought and empty reservoirs, it is worth looking at the YTD totals for this region, which show 365mm to date, compared with the mean of 346mm.

 

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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Rainfall/date/England_SE_and_Central_S.txt

 

 

Looking ahead, we seem set for dry weather for another week or so, but looking at the jetstream forecast, there is an indication of low pressure taking a foothold from mid month.

Jetstream Forecast

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/jetstream

 

 CET

Re the discrepancies in the CET numbers for June, which I highlighted the other day, Tim Legg has now confirmed that the revised figure of 16.1C and a rank of 18th warmest is correct.

He explains in an email to me:

 If you took the average of the 30 days from the “Daily data estimated values” then that would be why you got a different figure than the final/official monthly value.  The estimated values do tend to differ from the official values, typically by fractions of a degree on any individual day but occasionally by up to maybe two degrees.  Thus there usually is a difference between estimated and official monthly values, of up to a few tenths of a degree.  I have noticed that this difference tends to be largest for minimum temperatures, but even having said that, the difference between the two for June 2018 (0.78 degree) was larger than usual

I still fathom to understand why there should be such large changes. The Met Office get daily readings from the three sites used, Stonyhurst, Pershore and Rothamstead, and the weighting is presumably fixed in stone.

As Tim notes, such a large discrepancy is “larger than usual”.

Methinks cockup!

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8 Comments
  1. MrGrimNasty permalink
    July 5, 2018 12:49 pm

    Oh well, so the heat really was even less remarkable than not really that remarkable at all.

    Where I am on the South Coast, in sight of the Rampion industrialized windmill zone, we really didn’t have a drop of rain for the whole of June, not even a fraction of a mm. So my house certainly matched the least June rain record for my house!

  2. saparonia permalink
    July 5, 2018 12:56 pm

    I remember drier summers but am no spring chicken. If you take a look at the rest of the world, half of Europe, in fact the World, is being washed away. The Met Office has just introduced it’s first ever Thunderstorm Extreme Weather Warning. All Solar System planets are visible in the night sky through July, including Pluto and other minors on 18th-19th, there’s an imbalance that nobody is talking about. We have it to come, I will water my garden until there is a hose pipe ban, which there isn’t.

  3. quaesoveritas permalink
    July 5, 2018 1:18 pm

    “I still fathom to understand why there should be such large changes. The Met Office get daily readings from the three sites used, Stonyhurst, Pershore and Rothamstead, and the weighting is presumably fixed in stone.”

    The MO gets daily readings, but only uses ONE of the possible two minimums each day in the provisional figures.
    The confirmed figures use both minimums and obviously some of those will result in a lower average figure for the day. Clearly the daily average can never be increased under such a scenario and so the daily averages will usually be reduced. I am surprised that Legg didn’t explain this.

  4. ticklepin permalink
    July 5, 2018 1:35 pm

    ‘Clearly the daily average . . .’? It all seems very foggy to me!

  5. July 5, 2018 1:36 pm

    I wonder if perhaps the Met Office could install a system that automatically filters out calls from the media or routes them to somone (a robot, maybe) programmed to say firmly by tactfully “**** off”.

    If it could then resist the temptation to fling out “daily estimated values” — to what purpose, ffs?! — and stick to one monthly set of figures, maybe we could cool this whole business down.

    I know that human beings living in temperate climates love talking about the weather (my neighbours in France are as glued to their Météo apps as any Brit) but that is no excuse for the Met Office to send out daily dodgy data! More science and less PR, please!

  6. July 5, 2018 3:11 pm

    Surely the higher temperatures are a consequence of the lack of rainfall rather than a cause. Less evaporation means more energy to heat the ground and hence the air.

  7. Athelstan permalink
    July 5, 2018 5:40 pm

    “Looking ahead, we seem set for dry weather for another week or so, but looking at the jetstream forecast, there is an indication of low pressure taking a foothold from mid month.”

    I don’t want to put the kibosh on the enjoyment, during this period of sunny weather.

    BUT

    The nation…………..its water supply is under real pressure now. Truly, we are in deep doings insofar as water supply is concerned, with pictures in the local paper of the upper reaches of the Wharfe – and a bone dry riverbed. Note, it has to be said, although in the recent 12-18 months we’ve had some short but significant rain events, the prolonged down pours and wet winter months simply never happened this winter and last year spring, summer, Autumn did make it, a relatively dry end to the year……………..

    Even Yorkshire Water are telling people to be careful with their water usage, the facts are clear – since the great drought of 76, across the UK: water capacity storage has remained utterly static ie no new holding reservoirs have been built in the last FORTY TWO YEARS.

    The other half of the equation, since 1976 the UK population has increased (on ONS figures) some 11 million and some (and indeed myself) estimate the UK pop’ to be much higher than that……………think on that for a moment.
    Next, leakage of treated water in the distribution system – figures are hard to come by, times past, it used to be circa 33% lost due to leakage and bursts – the cynic would suggest and I don’t suppose that figure has improved much.

    Finally, foreign shareholders, Canadian pension funds whatever demand a dividend, thus overseas owned water UK water utilities and profiteering? Shurely it has – nothing to do with that – either??

  8. Simon permalink
    July 6, 2018 9:34 am

    Anecdotally, I went for a cycle ride to the Tamar Lake reservoir, situated on the Devon Cornwall boundary, last Wednesday (3/7/18). The notice board stated water levels were 92%.

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