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Wadhams Wrong Again

September 22, 2018
tags:

By Paul Homewood

 

 image

 https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/arctic-could-become-ice-free-for-first-time-in-more-than-100000-years-claims-leading-scientist-a7065781.html

 

Provisional data from NSIDC shows that Arctic sea ice extent this year is the sixth highest since 2007.

By any interpretation, the much predicted death spiral has simply not occurred.

 

image

 https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives

 

 

Meanwhile, much of the sea ice is two and three meter thick, very different to ten years ago:

 

CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20180921

CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20080908

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

 

And Arctic temperatures are close to average and dropping sharply:

 

meanT_2018

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

But none of this will stop the Independent, Guardian or BBC from continuing to publicise Peter Wadhams’ crank theories.

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37 Comments
  1. Joe Public permalink
    September 22, 2018 12:18 pm

    C’mon Paul, be reasonable – there’s still a few days left for 3.5 million sq km of Arctic sea ice to melt. 😂

    • Robin Guenier permalink
      September 22, 2018 1:31 pm

      True – but Wadhams was talking about September 2016.

      • Joe Public permalink
        September 22, 2018 7:31 pm

        Ah, my bad.

        I’d assumed the post related to this Wadhams’ prediction:

      • Harry Passfield permalink
        September 22, 2018 8:26 pm

        Robin: That may be so, but a prediction, even in 2016 has a future. even if it is probably wrong.

        But still, I am left with the feeling: ‘So what. Man cannot control the climate – but ‘men’ have convinced the gullible that they can.’

      • Robin Guenier permalink
        September 22, 2018 10:13 pm

        Harry: his prediction was wrong re 2016. Nor did it happen in 2017. And, as Joe P knows, it won’t happen in 2018. Maybe in 2019?

  2. Ian Cunningham permalink
    September 22, 2018 12:23 pm

    The ‘Prof’ attended the Orkney Science festival recently and used a slide which showed the death spiral….conveniently ending in 2013. I quizzed him about more recent data and he didnt respond directly but instead talked about sea ice thickness which he claimed was thinner in all months. His talk was another ramble this time on the dangers of melting permafrost which was heavy on scaremongering and short on science.

    • September 22, 2018 4:29 pm

      Wadhams does seem to have adopted another stray tipping-point scare, sudden release of methane, which will wipe out civilization within 5 years … thereby ensuring Brexit:

      https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/08/10/peter-wadhams-professor-emeritus-ocean-physics/

    • david permalink
      September 23, 2018 4:54 am

      Look, he is a “share guru.” They infest the newspaper financial columns like bed bugs. They are nigh impossible to eliminate. Just because Wadhams has “lost money for everybody” in the past with his tips doesn’t mean he is going to stop giving them.

      Such people always have a kind of preening self regard. Basically, they a complete waste of space.

  3. September 22, 2018 12:38 pm

    Send over flocks of drones with flame throwers.

  4. September 22, 2018 12:59 pm

    Who decides that Wadhams is a “leading scientist”? In academia, quality of output doesn’t matter, so he is employable. He would never be employable as a scientist in the real world.

    • Ben Vorlich permalink
      September 22, 2018 1:57 pm

      Experts whose predictions fail time after time and football managers who fail time after time seem to have no problems getting jobs, always puzzled me why.

      • Gerry, England permalink
        September 22, 2018 5:09 pm

        Government employees who fail time and again also seem to find employment – in the same sector.

      • Harry Passfield permalink
        September 22, 2018 8:29 pm

        But football managers who fail get sacked – very publicly. If only….

    • September 23, 2018 11:29 am

      But he’s on message, therefore he’s always correct, no matter what garbage he utters.

  5. Broadlands permalink
    September 22, 2018 2:21 pm

    “But none of this will stop the Independent, Guardian or BBC from continuing to publicise Peter Wadhams’ crank theories.”

    And such almost daily hand-wringing concern has encouraged the leaders at SCIENCE, AAAS to come up with a brand new award… the Golden Goose Award. It will be given to those who deal best with “naysayers and skeptics”…even politicians. It is an idea conceived by a politician and what used to be a scientific organization is giving it birth. Dr. Rush D. Holt.

  6. September 22, 2018 2:22 pm

    The BBC deploys omission to maintain its fake news, most recently claiming the first commercial voyage through the Northeast passage … thanks to CC, and problems at the Svalbard seed bank, which apparently was created to save the world from … CC.

    Both stories contain barefaced lies.

  7. Mack permalink
    September 22, 2018 2:29 pm

    If in doubt, get Wadhams out! His musings are always good for a laugh. Interestingly, just had the first flight of Icelandic Whooper swans touch down where I am on their annual migration to sunnier climes further south for the winter, about a month early. Do believe Iceland have had a crap summer and it looks like another very cold winter ahead. Possibly for all of us in the NH. I dare say that the average Whooper has a better understanding of Arctic climate than the misguided professor.

    • Graeme No.3 permalink
      September 23, 2018 5:04 am

      Of course the average Whooper is more intelligent…they are bird brains.

  8. frederik wisse permalink
    September 22, 2018 2:45 pm

    At least there is one person that still believes in Wadhams lies : Mr Wadham himself for a change .

  9. RAH permalink
    September 22, 2018 3:07 pm

    Cambridge should have been challenged long ago as to why anyone should believe anything this paranoid crackpot says and why he still has a teaching position at Cambridge? Why would anyone interested in the science of physics as applied to the atmosphere and oceans want to go to Cambridge for that education? People like Wadhams negatively effect the prestige of Newtons Chair.

  10. lapogus permalink
    September 22, 2018 4:14 pm

    I came across this interview with Wadhams a few weeks ago – https://youtu.be/djHhTuw0uSo – sadly, from the comments, it seems that many people still believe everything he says.

  11. Bitter@twisted permalink
    September 22, 2018 4:31 pm

    I feel sorry for Professor Wadhams.
    He clearly is in the early stages of dementia.
    We should not mock.

  12. saparonia permalink
    September 22, 2018 4:47 pm

    We could also see pigs flying

  13. Gerry, England permalink
    September 22, 2018 5:16 pm

    Whenever you hear some professor spouting off on a subject as an expert, remember that ‘professor’ is just a job title.

    • save energy permalink
      September 22, 2018 8:40 pm

      Definition of ‘professor’ :noun
      one that professes.

      Definition of ‘ professes’
      verb
      3rd person present:

      1.
      * claim, often falsely,* that one has (a quality or feeling).

      have or claim knowledge or skill in (a subject or accomplishment).
      “though knowing little of the arts I professed, he proved a natural adept”

      synonyms: declare, announce, proclaim, assert, state, affirm, avow, maintain, protest, aver, vow, claim, pretend, purport, allege, make a pretence of, lay claim, make out that;

      2.
      * affirming one’s faith in or allegiance to (a religion or set of beliefs).*

      synonyms: state/affirm one’s faith in, affirm one’s allegiance to, make a public declaration of, declare publicly, avow, confess, acknowledge publicly

      Professor Wadhams is sticking with his job discription !!

  14. John F. Hultquist permalink
    September 22, 2018 6:10 pm

    Many folks seem to forget this “Arctic” is an Ocean.
    Let that sink in for a moment.
    Ocean surfaces are susceptible to currents, winds, waves, and strong storms.
    Ice forms each year. Over time some breaks up and gets pushed into thicker ridges (older ice). Some ice melts. New ice forms – 1st year ice.
    Thick, multi-year, ice blocks passages (straits) and prevents ice-bergs moving to lower latitude (south) and warmer water, where it melts.
    [ Remember the Titanic! ]
    A strong storm can bust the blockages (ice arches) and ice will flow out via the straits.
    Older (multi-year) ice decreases and the next year most of the ice will be young ice.
    This happened big-time in 2007.
    It will happen again – sometime.

    When it does, enjoy the show. But it is not a tragedy.

  15. J Martin permalink
    September 22, 2018 7:19 pm

    I’m surprised that Wadhams hasn’t chartered a ship to sail through the north west passage yet. He seems to have all the necessary qualifications.

    • September 23, 2018 8:16 am

      That would require a large chunk of other people’s money.

    • lapogus permalink
      September 23, 2018 1:07 pm

      I don’t think Wadhams would consider sailing in the Arctic; he probably thinks all boats are at great risk of being instantly flipped over by the enormous methane bubbles which are apparently escaping from the sea-floor below.

  16. September 23, 2018 9:13 am

    So much for the ‘rapidly melting’ Arctic. The only death spiral is that of credible predictions of ice loss by alarmists. Still, there’s always next year, or the one after, or….zzzzz.

  17. dennisambler permalink
    September 23, 2018 1:22 pm

    He has been predicting it for the last 18 years
    https://web.archive.org/web/20130111044639/http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/view.php?id=22250

    2001
    Peter Wadhams of the Scott Polar Research Institute in Cambridge agrees that the Arctic could soon open up. “Within a decade we can expect regular summer trade there, he predicts.”

    His claim was rubbished then, but he is still the expert,

    The Arctic Climate System Study: Climate and Cryosphere Project Newsletter, Number 1, September 2001 Ice and Climate News

    “In the case of submarine-inferred rapid loss of Arctic sea ice, combined modelling and data argue that a more physically plausible inference is that the ice was not “lost” but only shifted within the Arctic. The pattern of submarine sampling happened to miss the shift. Observations to date, together with model physics, imply only that the loss of sea ice volume is not inconsistent with the 3% per decade loss of ice area, a modest rate, itself not inconsistent with multi-decadal natural variability.”

    The BBC even reported the challenge:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1311007.stm

    He never gives up, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8307272.stm
    2009
    “The Arctic Ocean could be largely ice-free and open to shipping during the summer in as little as ten years’ time, a top polar specialist has said. “It’s like man is taking the lid off the northern part of the planet,” said Professor Peter Wadhams, from the University of Cambridge. Professor Wadhams has been studying the Arctic ice since the 1960s. He was speaking in central London at the launch of the findings of the Catlin Arctic Survey.”

    2011
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/9483790.stm
    Since the 1970s, Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University has made repeated trips under the North Pole in Royal Navy nuclear submarines to measure the thickness of the ice. He told Newsnight the graph “has gone off a cliff” because the ice sheet has thinned as well as shrunk. Prof Wadhams says in summer “it could easily happen that we’ll have an ice-free North Pole within a year or two”.

    2015
    Vatican Adviser – “Our Time is Running Out – The Arctic Sea Ice is Going,” May 15th, 2015
    http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/must-see-new-video-of-prof-peter.html

    …one of the invited guest speakers was Professor Peter Wadhams. “I’ve been measuring the ice thickness go down by 50% over the last 30 years. Today, it’s more like a blue planet. It’s almost an ice-free Arctic.

    Seems not: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL065704

    “Results indicate that even in today’s climate, ice conditions must still be considered severe. These results have important implications for the prediction of ice breakup and summer ice conditions, and the assessment of sea ice hazards during the summer shipping season.
    …in the waters of the northern NWP, in 2014 more ice survived the summer as MYI than in the nine most recent years but slightly less than during 1968–2015 on average. Between November 2014 and April 2015, winter air temperatures were between −0.5°C and −1.5°C colder than during 1980–2010 which could have led to slightly thicker level ice than average, notwithstanding snow effect…However, by all means the observed thicknesses and amount of deformed ice still indicate serious ice conditions which can persist throughout the summers”

    Never saw that on telly…

    • david permalink
      September 23, 2018 8:29 pm

      His shtick about the thinness of the ice – where only he can look, ’cause he is invited on subs – is ancient rubbish now. The satellites gauge it from above – and ALL OVER the 10 million square kilometer ocean, not just where a boat happens to go.

      I had never seen that 2008 picture. Verry interesting.

      The Wad is a cracked, stuck, record; or simply cracked.

  18. September 23, 2018 3:27 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  19. September 23, 2018 7:38 pm

    WUWT says this year’s minimum has been reached.
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/09/23/arctic-sea-ice-melt-has-turn-the-corner-for-2018/

    • September 23, 2018 7:42 pm

      The minimum was more than 5 Wadhams. This good news hasn’t reached the BBC yet.

  20. Francisco permalink
    September 23, 2018 11:32 pm

    Article is 2016. It is jus another failed prophecy

  21. CheshireRed permalink
    September 24, 2018 11:24 am

    Have you approached Prof Wadhams for his explanation of events?

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