That Was The Summer That Was!
September 4, 2021
By Paul Homewood
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean.txt
Well, that was your summer!
In central England, it ranked an unimpressive 49th on the list. There were sixteen years as warm or warmer in the 18thC, and another ten in the 19thC.
I’m still waiting for those Mediterranean summers we were promised all those years ago!
27 Comments
Comments are closed.
NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
“I’m still waiting for those Mediterranean summers we were promised all those years ago!”
But all those years ago we weren’t. I read a few of the early papers. Their prediction was for warming to be concentrated at high latitudes, in winter, at night. Good-oh, I thought, longer growing seasons.
The early paper served to persuade me that, at the time, the problem with the field was that the investigators were duds – feeble, rather ill-educated scientists with little clue how to go about their self-imposed tasks. The flood of out-and-out crooks mainly appeared later once the opportunities had become apparent.
Up here in Yorkshire we were clapping our hands and jumping for joy because global warming and the coming Mediteranean climate. Our mouths were watering at the prospect of Yorkshire wine with our Yorkshire pud. We’re still waiting, still the same old “6months of winter and 6 months of bad weather”. We’ve already got the central heating on in the Pennines.
Ranked 46-43 according to this.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean_sort.txt
Completely normal/not a record breaker, but top 12.5%, undeniably on the warm side.
#Awkward for the Global Warming Accolytes?
As with most facts that do not suit their agenda , the Global Warming loonies will just ignore them and still be claiming ” The Hottest Ever ”
http://temperature.global/
This site gives an unadjusted temperature for the world , but only for the last 30 years .
As you can see , the last 5 years have all been below average . But none of that stopped them from ” Hottest Year Ever ” claims .
Worth noting: average summer temperature of 17.0 or more? 19thC, 2; 20thC, 6; 21C, 3 so far after 21 years. Warmer? Yes. Scary, enough to change our whole way of living? No!!!
In 1963, I remember, snow was piled up on the sides of the roads for weeks in south London where I lived. A new ice age was forecast and I dreaded the prospect. Later, in the 70’s, weather started getting a bit warmer and we were told that we should look forward to a Mediterranean climate within about 20 years. I couldn’t wait. Imagine living among the orange groves without having to learn a foreign language. Well, that didn’t happen either. Who can i sue?
Who can i sue?
Nobody if the courts are going to side with IPCC theories of climate.
My observations over my lifetime have been that winters have become milder rather than summers becoming hotter. One thing is that, looking back to my youth, snowy winters seemed to be quite common. I think that this is partly because my memory plays tricks, the snowy winters were more memorable so I remember them better.
It seems to me that this can be attributed to natural variation and in no way proves the contention that CO2 is to blame.
Stonyground, it could be argued that the whole of 2021 has been a cool year. We had snow – and it was very cold snow – so it stuck around for about a week in the south-east of England in February. Since I have moved from London, the cold winters with snow appear to have doubled from 1 in 10 to 2 in 10. That could of course be due to the Urban Heat Island effect of London.
Richard Betts has responded, with a non-response, and claims you have blocked him from comments on this site:
That’s rich coming from Richard Betts.
Comments on the Met Office blog disappear into a black hole.
He’s free to post whenever he likes. As for cherry picking, I am not sure how using the CET can be classed as uch. Maybe Mr Betts would like to explain on the Met Office blog why their predictions of Mediterranean summers have been so wrong.
Better still, maybe he could let me post an article on their blog!
Cherry-picking and exclusions. That’s rich as that is what the IPCC reports are all about.
Warmists have no self awareness Mike. The IPCC reports always state that you can’t forecaster the climate with a model. But then produce a political summary that says we can and it worse than we thought.
That’s not un-typical of Richard Betts. “ Anthropogenic forcing of global warming through rising GHG concentrations is real. Warming is seen away from cities, including over oceans.” Don’t just assert it, Richard. Prove it.
Since mankind’s contribution to atmospheric CO2 is roughly 3% of 0.04% — or according to my favourite analogy, 1.25 cu mm in 100 cu m — and I have yet to see any evidence that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 is capable of anything more than a 1° temperature increase (if that) we need a lot more than assertion and hand-waving about forcings and feedbacks which apparently only apply to this warm period and not to any of history’s previous warmer periods!
We also need to be convinced that brief peaks in the middle of Heathrow Airport or sun-traps in Cambridge are an honest way of recording temperature rather than yet another “trick” to convince the gullible that the world is going to hell in a handcart if we don’t retreat to life before the Industrial Revolution. Which is what your “eco-colleagues” have in mind.
It’s a game anyone can play. The shade temperature in my garden in the middle of France is at this moment a very pleasant 25.3°. The temperature in the corner by the garage is 51.1°! Which to use? Hard decision that!
And of course we still have to remember that “the climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible”. Perhaps the Meteorological Office should stick to meteorology!?
Hi Paul
For us here in Troon, Ayrshire we have experienced a better than average summer for sunshine and a lot less rain to the extent that we are being threatened with a water shortage. The British climate is a fickle one and not amenable to averages it would appear but to be sure it has nothing to do with the imagined global warming.
Keep up the good work.
Dougal McIntyre
Here in Oxfordshire its been the most miserable Summer that I can remember – apart from about two nice weeks in May its been more like November since April.
“3. Homewood cherry-picks & blocks Met Office scientists on his blog”
Having been coming here for a long time I find this a little hard to believe. There has always been open discussion here. I suspect that the CC alarmists have stopped coming because their arguments keep running headlong into reality. Paul can you confirm that you do not block such people, or if you do it is with good reason?
Paul has done so above Stony – I knew it was BS.
For all Richard Betts faults, he is a gentleman and a decade or more ago back in the BIshop Hill Days, before Mr Montford became busier elsewhere (GWPF) Richard would interact with commenters there in a civilised way. I thought him wrong often but he did it with some class. Many commenters there had substantial scientific backgrounds.
I have seen RIchard call out people on his own side if he felt they were wrong, but you can’t have an open mind in the Climate community, you would get cancelled quite quickly as some have found. Science it is not.
I am disappointed to see him make an assertion about this blog that I believe is not true. Paul is a seeker after truth and isn’t in the game of shutting down debate – that is the AGW side. Keep it civil without person attacks and make your pitch.
We all have to guard against our own biases but they are built-in with the modelling crowd who always seem to ignore any conflicting evidence. As Richard Feynman said – first don’t fool yourself, you are the easier person to fool.
I agree. For all I may disagree with some of his conclusions I always saw Richard as one of the good(ish) guys prepared to stick his head through the bars at Bishop Hill and defend his employer.
The problem usually was that his defence often had more holes in it than a colander.
Rightly or wrongly virtually every claim put forward by the climate establishment can be debunked if only because they refuse to defend themselves with evidence. They claim that increased CO2 causes global warming; we respond that there is evidence that CO2 changes lag temperature changes; they either shut up or rant at us. There can be no meeting of minds or acknowledgment of the truth, wherever it may lie, as long as climatologists (and others) behave like high priests of the new Religion of Climate and are not interested in any other point of view.
Which is not science, by any definition. And access to super-super-computers doesn’t make it so. All that results in is that the garbage output arrives quicker.
Those of us who have lived through a series of biological/medical/ epidemiological fxxx-ups in the UK in the last 20 years from BSE to Covid-19 know this to be the case.
Full MO assessment.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/one-of-the-hottest-summers-on-record-for-scotland-and-northern-ireland
The very average August and lack of sunshine in places has clouded (hoho) some local perceptions of what was a warm to very warm summer everywhere.
They’re clearly getting absolutely desperate now!!
I don’t disagree with the MO on this assessment really.
It’s obvious that the countrywide assessment is exaggerated/influenced by UHI/poor quality stations (more so than the CET), but as an avid weather watcher since childhood, it pretty much agrees with what I saw.
Here in Torquay I would say the summer has been quite pleasant. We had a three or four day heat wave, some bouts of rain but missed out on the thunderstorms elsewhere.
This is the first year in five that I have not needed to get the hose out on the garden, watering cans being sufficient.
Our tomatoes were very poor due to a poor spring.
So nothing out of the ordinary but overall quite pleasant and reasonably sunny.
For Ianspry
I am having problem getting the reply to your comment on energy prices to load on the direct link, so hope you find it here.
My tariff has also changed but it is about 75% of yours.
You should go to moneysavingexpert and uswitch and upload your current useage This can be in KWh or GBP and either monthly or annual.
I am now with Avro on a one year arrangement. They don’t insist on a Smart meter. And there are some cheaper options but many insist on your making an appointment for one. It’s about 28% higher than last year but we are all paying our bit towards the various green subsidies and the suicidal plot to reach net zero.
Good luck
For the whole of England it’s the 77th warmest.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/ranked/England.txt