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“Arctic Warming Causes Cold Winters”- Yes, It’s That Old Canard Again!

September 4, 2021

By Paul Homewood


The absurd Matt McGrath is at it again!



A new study shows that increases in extreme winter weather in parts of the US are linked to accelerated warming of the Arctic.

The scientists found that heating in the region ultimately disturbed the circular pattern of winds known as the polar vortex.

This allowed colder winter weather to flow down to the US, notably in the Texas cold wave in February.

The authors say that warming will see more cold winters in some locations.


These claims have been debunked so many times, you would have thought the penny might have dropped by now.

Maybe Mr McGrath would like to show us exactly these supposed increases in extreme winters are actually happening in the US. For instance, Texas, which uses as an example:




Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) (

Whether you look at just February or the winter as a whole, this year’s cold wave there simply does not look in any way extreme or unusual in the NOAA record since 1895.

Of course, it might be that NOAA’s data is wrong, and that their substantial temperature adjustments have wrongly cooled the past, and that this February really was unusually cold after all!


In the meantime, isn’t it about time that our own Met Office started to challenge these sort of junk science studies, which give climate science such a bad name. Their failure to do so diminishes their own integrity and reputation.

Maybe the Met Office’s own Richard Betts, who falsely accuses me of blocking him and his colleagues, would like to comment?

  1. Broadlands permalink
    September 4, 2021 7:11 pm

    “Of course, it might be that NOAA’s data is wrong, and that their substantial temperature adjustments have wrongly cooled the past, and that this February really was unusually cold after all!”

    For the US 48 states, NOAA has indeed lowered most of the official monthly US Weather Bureau temperatures from at least 1921 through 1940 by an average of ~0.8°F. And seasonally so to make the winter months appear colder. This, of course, is the exact opposite of what one would do to normalize for the increasing UHI effect over time. This is not a conspiracy theory, but it must have some rational explanation.

    • John Hultquist permalink
      September 5, 2021 5:19 am

      ” but it must have some rational explanation. ”

      I see their problem this way: If you took the urban temperature of today and always reported it as ~0.8°F less than the many other nearby stations – – would you seem trustworth? And that’s the average. Would a few cities have to be daily reporting 2° low? Or 3?
      What’s the phrase: Darned if they do and darned if they don’t.

      I think simple temperature is a pizza poor way of describing climate.
      And the climate doesn’t care.

      • Phoenix44 permalink
        September 5, 2021 7:57 am

        What they report daily is just weather. But if you are attempting to present accurate temperature data over a long period then you remove UHI and any other distortions from the record. You don’t change the accurate data – that’s madness!

        But yes, an average global temperature is a thing that doesn’t exist so is a very poor way of describing anything. And that’s before we understand that temperature is simply one “output” of the climate that may vary with how the climate is allocating energy to other outputs as well as with the total energy.

      • Ben Vorlich permalink
        September 5, 2021 1:39 pm

        If your job is recording temperatures then that should be all you do. You then publish the data as recorded and leave others to adjust it for whatever they think is appropriate. UHI, TOBS or whatever they think is right. They then have to justify conclusions with others who can see exactly what was done.

  2. Stonyground permalink
    September 4, 2021 7:28 pm

    “A new study shows that increases in extreme winter weather in parts of the US are linked to accelerated warming of the Arctic.”

    Cynic that I am, it looks to me as if the alarmists are getting their excuses in early in case it starts getting a whole lot cooler. It can’t possibly be getting cooler, the cooling is being caused by warming, anyone who tries to point out that this is completely absurd is an evil denier.

    • Harry Passfield permalink
      September 4, 2021 8:12 pm

      Totally agree! It’s what I’ve been banging on to whoever listens. It is going to get cold this Winter! And a few more to come…

  3. September 4, 2021 7:43 pm

    Not to mention the de-acceleration of Arctic warming, of Arctic sea ice extent downward trend, of Greenland ice volume and of Greenland’s glacier retreat.

    • Coeur de Lion permalink
      September 4, 2021 9:10 pm

      Arctic sea ice bottoms out in two weeks time at near five Wadhams like in 2007. Antarctic ice record high. Greenland three year mega accretion. That red and green graph one sees- coupla days in July above zero like usual?

  4. Mack permalink
    September 4, 2021 9:46 pm

    Paul, one thing that most sceptical sites have in common is that ‘true believers’ of alleged ‘catastrophic man made climate change’ are allowed to chuck in their ten bobs’ worth of criticism without being blocked, unlike most alarmist sites or MSM comment sections who regularly cull those whose views that don’t toe the party line. Are you saying that Richard Betts is a liar by falsely claiming that he and his colleagues have been blocked from commenting on this site?

    • September 4, 2021 10:18 pm

      Richard has certainly posted a few of his comments in the past, and is not blocked. I cannot recall any of his colleagues ever commenting, and only ever block any comments with abuse, ad homs etc, which I would assume Met Office scientists would never descend to!

      • Mack permalink
        September 4, 2021 10:40 pm

        Thanks Paul, I now look forward to Mr Betts deluging this site with an avalanche of examples of where he and his colleagues have been denied commentary on your various posts over the years. Shall I hold my breath?

      • Stonyground permalink
        September 5, 2021 7:49 am

        Will you be contacting him and politely asking for a retraction then? Also maybe ask him if he can provide some examples of cherry picking while he is on?

      • Stuart Hamish permalink
        September 5, 2021 5:09 pm

        Paul Homewood , I was cut off as I neared completion of my comments . This happened previously when I posted comments on this page critical of the World Wildlife Fund receiving financial donations from fossil fuel companies .So I will try again . The BBC’s latest round of Orwellian junk science was debunked years ago by Cliff Mass and Ryan Maue ..Then comprehensively in 2019 by Roy Spencer and John Christy and the 2020 Nature Climate Change paper ” Weakened Evidence For Mid Latitude Impacts of Arctic Warming ” , Blackport & Screen , 16 November 2020 . Spencer and Christy found there has been a downward continental United States cold waves trend in the era of satellite measurements [ 1979 onwards ] and over the longer term since 1895. Note the lull in cold waves from 1920 – 1930 when the Arctic warmed at a 50% faster rate than 1995 – 2005 . And another lull from 1939 – 1955 when there was significant Arctic warming , glacier retraction and sea ice depletion comparable to this century . Has anyone spotted this before ? The gaslighting Richard Betts and his Met Office colleagues have probably not turned up to challenge you in a debate because the evidence is conclusive. Warming Arctic temperatures are not linked to worsening cold waves in the United States

        This is an excerpt from the Blackport and Screen Nature paper : ” Jennifer Francis , whose seminal work proposed that Arctic warming was leading to a wavier jet stream ,predicted in 2014 that within a few years ,as Arctic amplification continues ,we will have enough data to know whether or not we’re right ” “So six years on what has changed ?……..predictions of a more negative Arctic Oscillation , wavier jet stream ,colder winters in mid latitudes or , more specifically in Eurasia , and more frequent and /or widespread cold extremes have not become reality ”

    • David V permalink
      September 5, 2021 10:05 am

      Ten bobs with? Ye Gods that’s inflation for you! Two pen’oth in my day if you’re lucky ha’p’oth otherwise…

  5. Rasa permalink
    September 4, 2021 9:47 pm


  6. Cheshire Red permalink
    September 4, 2021 10:01 pm

    Climate science makes Paul Daniel’s Bunco Booth look like a paragon of virtue. The entire business is shot through with corruption, misdirection and outright fraud. Scammers everywhere.

  7. Peter Yarnall permalink
    September 4, 2021 10:45 pm

    These are obviously the same non scientists who claimed to all us skiers in the mid 80’s that we should enjoy the snow while we could as it would be a thing of the past in 1990 because of “global warming”
    It is about time some organisation or group really started to question this nonsense All of you out there with Tory MP’s, please start bombarding them with real science so we can protect our futures.

    • Dave Gardner permalink
      September 5, 2021 12:24 pm

      I think you’ve got the timeline wrong there. It was more like 2020 than 1990 and the predictions were made around 2000 by CRU of the University of East Anglia.

      “Spain will be ridden with malaria, the eastern Mediterranean will be as hot as the Sahara desert, flash floods will swamp parts of the American coastline and there will be almost no snow in the Alps.

      This is the doomsday scenario painted in a new report on the effects of global warming on 10 of the planet’s most popular tourist destinations in the next century.

      The study, commissioned by the World Wild Fund for Nature, found that profitable tourist destinations could be turned into “holiday horror stories”.

      By 2020, visitors to the Costa del Sol could risk contracting malaria as global warming brings more frequent heatwaves, making the country a suitable habitat for malaria-bearing mosquitoes, while increases in summer temperatures to more than 40C (104F) could make parts of Turkey and Greece no-go areas in July and August.

      The report, Climate change and its impacts on tourism, carried out by the University of East Anglia’s climatic research unit for WWF, suggests that tour operators and countries which rely on holidaymakers for foreign revenue will need to take account of the changing climate when planning new resorts or upgrading facilities.”

  8. Graeme No.3 permalink
    September 4, 2021 11:32 pm

    War is Peace
    Freedom is Slavery
    Ignorance is Strength
    Warming causes Cold – George Orwell missed that one.

  9. September 5, 2021 12:39 am

    My 2 cents on this issue

  10. M E permalink
    September 5, 2021 1:50 am

    Is there a polar vortex as was widely believed in my young day ? . What would disturb itin winter if there is one?

  11. John Hultquist permalink
    September 5, 2021 5:42 am

    Last month Joe Bastardi had a post about cold winters following active Atlantic hurricane summers. This makes sense. A hurricane takes energy from the ocean near-surface and sends it into the lower Troposphere. Once aloft there will be radiation transmission to space.
    If the energy stays in the ocean water (few or small hurricanes) it will be transported northward by the eastern-coastal currents.
    (Sorry if I’ve over simplified and over-reached from Joe’s post.)

    In any case, if there is a deep cold pool in the North-Polar region there is only one direction it can flow – south.

  12. Phoenix44 permalink
    September 5, 2021 7:49 am

    So a thing that isn’t happening – faster Arctic warning – is linked to a thing that isn’t happening – more extreme winters.

    Beyond fraud and into pure fantasy.

    Once again we have non-trend events that correlate with other non-trend events but are forced into both being trends to fit a pre-decided theory. What the data shows is that when something causes the Arctic to be warmer than average, parts of the US get severe winters. Wouldn’t it be interesting to know what the actual underlying cause is?

    • dave permalink
      September 5, 2021 10:06 am

      “…the actual underlying cause…”

      The actual phenomenon is only a kind of house-swap, whereby cold polar air migrates a little towards the equator and slightly warmer air is sucked in from lower latitudes, as replacement. The two masses of air soon reach the temperatures appropriate to their new locations. Or more accurately they lose their identity in the general mixing. For the global, long-term, heat balance, the swaps are almost irrelevant.

      It is only because modern humans are easily spooked, and never seem to have sensible individual back-up plans, that we make such a collective fuss about weather extremes.

      As for seeking the cause, one can definitely ignore anyone who did not clearly predict the effect but who is now out there, spouting puerile, ad hoc, explanations. That eliminates the ideas of the whole climate mafia, naturally.

      The only people who actually predicted this increase in hot- and cold- waves are the
      de-platformed contrarians – Piers Corbyn was just one – who said, “Natural cycles!” and “Solar System dynamics!” and “Wavy jet streams!”

  13. dennisambler permalink
    September 5, 2021 8:42 am

    “A new study shows”

    Should read, “a new study claims…

  14. dennisambler permalink
    September 5, 2021 8:46 am

    McGrath is as gullible as the rest, they receive the Press feed and run with it. This is Forbes reporting on the “Science” paper:

    “Rapid Arctic warming driven by climate change could be responsible for the increasingly extreme winter weather in some parts of the United States, according to a study published in the journal Science on Thursday, providing the first evidence linking February’s killer winter storm to human-driven global warming.”

    • dave permalink
      September 5, 2021 11:09 am

      “…the first evidence…”

      They do love their ‘first evidence.’ I can see them as gleeful doctors, “I see the first evidence that your cancer is back!”

      Two years ago, I noticed an MSM story being pushed, ‘First evidence of a tipping point in the Beaufort Sea!’ Meaning, I suppose, bye-bye to the sea-ice there. The ice-extent on this date in 2019 was 380,000 Today it is 830,000 I am waiting for the sack-cloth and ashes to be donned.

      Of course ‘they’ work on the basis: Never look back! Never apologize!

      So, I am not really waiting.

  15. September 5, 2021 10:00 am

    Once again alarmists try to blame natural jet stream patterns on a few CO2 molecules.

    For a bit more sense…

    NOAA: Understanding the Arctic polar vortex
    Author: Rebecca Lindsey
    March 5, 2021

    — The Arctic polar vortex occurs in the stratosphere in the winter.
    — When the vortex weakens, shifts, or breaks down, the upheaval is often mirrored in the polar jet stream below.
    — Disruptions of the vortex often lead to cold air outbreaks in the mid-latitudes.
    Computer models don’t agree on how global warming will affect the polar vortex.
    [bold added]

  16. Phil Beckley permalink
    September 5, 2021 12:13 pm

    The BBC should display on articles about the Arctic the latest chart which shows Arctic sea ice cover this season to be roughly in line with the long term average. This would rather undermine references to accelerating warming of the region.

  17. Broadlands permalink
    September 5, 2021 2:16 pm

    It’s quite ok to call the polar vortex responsible for the Antarctic ozone hole for a month or so, and then go even further to call it responsible for global warming and global cooling. Even “heat domes”. How can you be wrong…unless you try to blame the whole thing on man-made carbon dioxide which hasn’t been around for very long.

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