Skip to content

October 1941

November 5, 2021
tags:

By Paul Homewood

 

 image

image

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/summaries/index

Last month was mild, though daily temperatures never really got outside the normal band, and were nowhere near some of the extremes experienced in the past. Rather, they were consistently above average due to a persistent SW airflow:

image

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_act_graphEX.gif

 

You may have noticed that the Met Office continues to use the rain gauge at Honister Pass, 800 feet up in the Lake District, to proclaim extreme rainfall. Indeed, Honister, you could argue, has become the Heathrow of rainfall.

It is absurd and shows a lack of scientific lack of integrity for the Met Office to persist in this practice, as high mountain sites cannot be compared to the rest of the country, and as such are meaningless. They might as well use a thermometer at the top of Ben Nevis to proclaim record cold temperatures.

This use of Honister and other such sites also throws suspicion on the reliability of the Met Office’s UK-wide rainfall data, given that they exaggerate rainfall totals, and that these sites have only been operational for a couple of decades.

What was the weather like 80 years ago though?

October 1941 was actually a bit of a mixed bag:

image

image

https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/IO_240c515b-f716-4a9e-a543-ddc966ce9bbd/

 

Temperatures hit 75F (23.9C) at several locations, much higher than seen last month.

image

There were also several days when heavy rain fell:

image

Gales were also frequent, and gusts of 85 mph were recorded in Manchester:

image

To cap it all, snow and sleet showers were widespread on the 29thC:

image

Which just goes to show that you can just about expect anything where British weather is concerned!

30 Comments
  1. Phil Saunders permalink
    November 5, 2021 3:57 pm

    I’m told the rain gauge is 1168 feet above sea level.

  2. Beagle permalink
    November 5, 2021 4:06 pm

    I lived in South Lakes for 30 years. When in the lakes area the old adage when someone asked “when will it stop raining?” The answer, “drive 10 miles or wait 10 mins.”
    Average rainfall is about 2000mm/yr but Sprinkling tarn is regarded as the wettest with 5000mm/yr. (I live in Suffolk now, one of the driest counties)

  3. mjr permalink
    November 5, 2021 5:11 pm

    if you want a bit of a laugh about ignorant politicians , watch the attached. From Australian question time .. The guy talking is a (Oz) Sky news presenter. recent tweet so assumed to be recent video

    • JBW permalink
      November 5, 2021 5:53 pm

      I loved that bit about ‘not being a scientist’.
      I am curios that all this stuff about CO2, and no one mentions Oxygen. Why does O2 appear to remain at such a steady percentage of the atmosphere (21%), and not change in sympathy with changes in CO2? Maybe it does but no-one is measuring it???

      • November 5, 2021 10:42 pm

        JBW, the percentage of O2 in the atmosphere does change in concert with the changes in CO2. But remember that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is tiny compared with the amount of O2 – CO2 is 0.04% against O2 at 21%. So the change in O2 is a gnat’s bite.

        The change in O2 concentration does broadly match the increase in CO2.

      • pdp1140 permalink
        November 6, 2021 7:20 am

        As we follow a path of switching to technologies that produce oxygen, water vapour, nitrogen or anything else but CO2, is anyone assessing the impact of creating a different atmospheric imbalance? Alternatives could cause worse problems than CO2. We interfere with nature at our peril.

      • dave permalink
        November 6, 2021 9:03 am

        Since the amount of oxygen in the air is five thousand times that of carbon dioxide, changing 100 molecules of oxygen to 100 molecules of carbon dioxide has a proportionate effect on oxygen levels which is one five-thousandth of the proportionate effect on carbon dioxide levels.

        People do measure oxygen levels at various places for various reasons*, but it is pointless to attempt an inventory of all the oxygen in the world, as we know it cannot change significantly in our life-times.

        Occasionally, a degraded news article IS trundled out with the meme, “we are all gonna to run out of oxygen!” I have not seen one of those for a while.

        Apart from the smug stupidity of “Allison,” it is interesting to note how “arts side” people completely over-estimate the difficulty of science. Only scientists can memorize a number as complicated as 0.04% ? Forsooth! That is like me asking you how much you were paid last week and you sneering, “I am not an accountant!” In my view, it all starts with unreproved mental laziness in school.

        I have a sneaking suspicion that “Allison” was one of those girls who get out of P.E. by having her time of the month every week.

        * For instance in anoxic parts of the ocean.

  4. Phoenix44 permalink
    November 5, 2021 5:14 pm

    I honestly struggle to see how anyone can look at that graph and think “obvious climate change” let alone “climate emergency”. Maybe 3% of the days outside the 5-95% confidence intervals, which seems about right.

  5. Crowcatcher permalink
    November 5, 2021 5:36 pm

    Traditionally, until fairly recently, the rain gauge at Seathwaite Farm was the rain gauge used to measure Lake District rainfall and was all
    ways recorded as England’s highest (rainfall)
    Shameful of the Met Office to install one at Honister Pass where it’s bound to have somewhat higher especially as it’s exposed to the north west.

    • November 5, 2021 7:27 pm

      Rather like the NO2 monitors located on roads known to be prone to heavy slow-moving traffic. Guaranteed headlines and donations for FoE.

  6. europeanonion permalink
    November 5, 2021 5:59 pm

    Roger Bacon, often quoted as being the father of the modern scientific method, was equally as imaginative as Leonardo in conceptualising machines that could fly; an experimenter, a thinker. His fellow monks jailed him for having ‘suspect novelties’ in his thoughts, fears that modern climate contrivers use to describe the sane and steady, who look to the facts instead of having an overdose of Apocalypse Now, losing control and self-respect.

    Lots of historic figures paid with their lives for eying convention sceptically. Others, like the genius that was Galileo, had to undergo opprobrium, inquisition and cant to press their legitimate views. In the modern era we have no lesser luminary than the Archbishop of Canterbury, sounding more like Savonarola, associating the holocaust with climate denying, the leadership of XR suggesting that climate change will lead to an outbreak of sordid crimes. The evidence of recent times is that such phenomena are more likely when people are denied freedom, food and their own rights, rather than the prescriptions offered to them by elites.

    Forgive them, they know not what they do? We are in an age running from ‘novelty’ into the cul-de-sac of an imposed stereotypical wisdom. Rather than the Imps of Paul Homewood melting back into the dark forests of ignorance, our resolve should be made more steely. We cannot just hand the world over to fantasists. Not shrink from facing them down, if nothing else, we owe it to all those long dead who saw legitimacy personified by the fire and gallows and did not falter in their resolve.

  7. November 5, 2021 7:32 pm

    The BBC got all excited last weekend about a river close to overflowing, that would have been the perfect climate porn just before CoP26. They had to make do with a tree falling on a railway line.

  8. Ben Vorlich permalink
    November 5, 2021 8:56 pm

    Did I dream it or did Justin Rowlatt report from Alaska on BBC TV last night?

    • November 5, 2021 9:37 pm

      Any links?

      • November 5, 2021 11:01 pm

        There is this on YouTube, and it was shown on BBC News today, but it ain’t linked on the BBC News website:

        The whole thing is a weird confused mix of different messages. In reality, it looks as if the town is suffering from coastal erosion. The claimed connection to “rising sea levels” and “glacier melt” seems very tenuous to me. Indeed, I find it hard to see much of a connection with “climate change” at all.

      • November 6, 2021 8:34 am

        Ah, finally it’s turned up on the BBC News site here:

        https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-59186214

        Interestingly, the blurb accompanying the video there does talk about “rapid coastal erosion” even though the video itself does not talk in those terms.

        I checked out the location of Shishmaref – it sits on a barrier island off the coast in the Bering Strait. Such places are notorious for erosion and movement of the land. Claiming that this is caused by “climate change” is beyond ridiculous.

    • cookers52 permalink
      November 6, 2021 8:03 am

      Yes I saw it, must have been recorded.
      Usual pointless rubbish, not sure I understood the point of the his journalistic preaching as it just showed coastal erosion in a very cold place.

  9. Richard Greene permalink
    November 5, 2021 9:14 pm

    We love warming here in Michigan USA
    And want a lot more.
    Do people in the UK object to a little warming?
    Why?

    • Stuart Brown permalink
      November 5, 2021 9:29 pm

      Only the idiots who glue themselves to motorways. Come to think of it they are protesting for more insulation, so maybe not even them!

      • tom0mason permalink
        November 6, 2021 8:26 am

        Once it gets rainy, frosty, or even snowy they will be driving back to their comfortable homes to twitter and farsebook. The Insulate mob like their creature comforts.

    • Julian Flood permalink
      November 5, 2021 10:26 pm

      So go to Lake Michegan which is warming anomalously fast. Why? That’s a good question. Has anyone looked?

      JF
      (Yes, I know my knowledge of US geography is suspect.)

      • dave permalink
        November 6, 2021 1:34 pm

        It is not warming anomalously fast…it is cooling down anomalously slowly.* This is an occasional happening, and meteorologists have a phrase for it, ‘an endless summer.’ ** Which is just another way of saying that Autumn has been postponed by blocking patterns.

        It prepares the Great Lakes region for ‘lake-effect’ snow storms in winter, when cold air from the North will encounter warmish water.

        *I really am sick of pseudo-scientists intercepting and distorting the messages
        of genuine science.

        **AKA ‘an Indian Summer.’

  10. LeedsChris permalink
    November 5, 2021 9:38 pm

    The key difference in present-day rainfall reporting for daily and hourly totals is that the gauges have changed in the last two decades. Prior to a couple of decades ago about half of the rainfall gauges in Cumbria were only read monthly. These included nearly all the gauges up on the fells and those above 200metres. That’s because they were manual gauges – so they were only read on the 1st of every month. These are also the wettest locations. The only gauges read daily were those near to where people lived and these tended to be in the lowland, drier locations. Over recent years all these gauges have been replaced with automatic rain gauges that upload data to the internet on a continuous basis. The result is now that we have constant minute by minute, hour by hour info on rainfall from much wetter and remote locations than before. It is plain that Honister Pass is a very wet location, but Intil very recently heavy daily falls went unrecorded because such gauges were only read monthly. Now we know how much it has rained there every few minutes and in real time. Should it therefore be a surprise if we see reported more extreme daily rainfall totals. Not climate change it’s measurement change.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      November 6, 2021 7:53 am

      A great deal of climate change is measurement change. Virtually all climate emergency is measurement change.

    • dave permalink
      November 6, 2021 2:21 pm

      Here is a riddle. If you do not like guessing-game nonsense, scroll down at once.

      The following is a completely true published scientific statement – with one word left out by me,

      “Overall, the southern ice cap has receded in recent years – dramatic evidence of a changing climate.”

      First clue: the word comes after ‘changing’.
      .
      .
      .
      .
      .
      .
      .
      .
      .
      .

      Second clue: the word starts with ‘M.’
      .
      .
      .
      .
      .
      .
      .
      .
      .
      .
      .
      .
      .
      .
      .
      .

      The word is ‘Martian.’

  11. cookers52 permalink
    November 6, 2021 7:49 am

    We were at war in 1941 the bombers visited daily.The weather was not that important.

    In 2021 we have a “climate emergency ” and an “environmental catastrophe ” but the bombing comes from terrorism. The weather and environment seem to be doing OK.

    I have no idea what the problem is, a lot of people seem transfixed by a few statistical squiggles, but I haven’t noticed anything untoward in my journeys through the countryside. I have been told since1980 that the UK will soon have the climate of the south of France, and looked forward to this pleasant prospect, but it just keeps raining and no signs of a prickly pear yet.

    • dave permalink
      November 6, 2021 9:13 am

      “…no signs…”

      Of Kir Royals for a pound.

  12. Graeme No.3 permalink
    November 6, 2021 8:39 pm

    And Glacier Bay in southern Alaska started melting between 1780 and 1794. A sure sign of doom rushing on us wicked humans.
    https://web.archive.org/web/20160214051639/http://soundwaves.usgs.gov/2001/07/fieldwork2.html

  13. Mal Fraser permalink
    November 7, 2021 9:27 am

    0.0000132%
    This figure would appear to be the percentage of Co2 of the Earth’s atmosphere the UK adds annually. No wonder my vegetables are struggling.

  14. dennisambler permalink
    November 7, 2021 11:17 pm

    “a lack of scientific lack of integrity for the Met Office ”

    They are answerable to BEIS, used to be the MOD.

Comments are closed.