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Nov 1951–Exceptionally Wet, Severe Flooding, Very Mild

December 7, 2021

By Paul Homewood


Last month was mostly dry and mild. Mainly uneventful until Storm Arwen brought strong gales and snow at the end of the month.


Up until the last week, it was similar weather to that of November 1941:




November 1951 was however a very different kettle of fish, one of the wettest on record. Large parts of England received 250% of normal rainfall, causing severe flooding.

It was also one of the mildest Novembers on record. CET was 1.2C higher than this year






We’ll look at 1961 and 1971 tomorrow.

  1. Jack Broughton permalink
    December 7, 2021 11:05 am

    of course, … these events are much more frequent because of climate change ……. flying pigs too!

  2. C Lynch permalink
    December 7, 2021 11:20 am

    I have great fun forwarding this excellent series to my Alarmist friends and family. They always receive it with silence!

    • Thomas Carr permalink
      December 7, 2021 12:36 pm

      The trouble is that until a collection of Paul’s best discoveries is made and circulated to all the “science correspondents’ who are so indulged by their publishers like the BBC the alarmists will shrug off counter views that are issued piecemeal by any competent source.

      A handbook , for want of a better word, setting out all the compelling graphs and stats. regarding historic trends is essential. I would hope that Paul’s computer could list a schedule of those sources and we might attempt the rest.

      Certainly the publishers of Hans Rosling’s “Factfulness” would be the place to start. They are Hodder and Stoughton.

  3. David permalink
    December 7, 2021 11:40 am

    Interesting how many people seem to have splits of opinion in their families! We must keep the real message on the go.

  4. December 7, 2021 11:47 am

    The concept of “normal” rainfall is constantly exploited by the alarmist industry. In the UK there is probably very-roughly the same amount of rainfall in most years in any given month, but infrequently the month is either very dry or very wet. The very wet months might typically have 2-3 times more rain than the not-very-wet months.

    This gets reported as the month having a few hundred percent of “normal” rainfall, shock horror, but no mention of the fact that this amount of rainfall is actually typical of very wet months.

    A similar trick is done for arid regions, in which it is entirely normal for most months to have a lot less than “normal” rainfall, because that “normal” rainfall figure is shifted up substantially by the infrequent very wet months.

    • Graeme No.3 permalink
      December 7, 2021 9:02 pm

      re arid regions
      2008 This drought may never Break
      It may be time to stop describing SE Australia as gripped by drought and accept the extreme dry as permanent. “Perhaps we should call it our new climate” said Bureau of Meteorology Head of Climate Analysis, David Jones.

      2010 Floods in northern NSW (and SE Queensland)
      2011 Brisbane Floods January. a wave of brown water inundated the city in the biggest floods to hit Queensland’s capital since 1974
      (The Guardian 2013 Floods in Australia 2010/11 lowered the world sea level).
      2015: the Hunter region, along with Central Coast and Sydney, was lashed by wild weather. It brought heavy rainfall and disrupted power supply to over 200,000 homes. The storms led to the most significant flooding that many residents in the region had experienced in 60 years
      2017: Heavy falls were recorded along most coastal districts of New South Wales.. Daily totals for the 24 hours to 9am on 5 June exceeded 100 mm with several locations in the far north reporting rainfall in excess of 300 mm; the highest being Tweed Heads with a total of 330 mm, though locally, heavier falls were recorded at non-Bureau gauges
      2020: major flooding in Qld and NSW
      2021 40,000 evacuated from flood zones.The Bureau of Meteorology warned cells like this could become more regular throughout the rest of summer, following the wettest November since records began. He said more rain on the way.
      The overnight drenching prompted Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk to officially rule out water restrictions this summer.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      December 8, 2021 8:55 am

      The curse of the average yet again! In the UK any period of weather is very rarely “average”. If you look at the data making up historical averages that has always been the case – the vast majority of days/months/years are either below or above average, with very few close to average. Comparing any relatively short time period to a long term average is therefore highly misleading. Short time period data should be compared with the variability around a long term average, as every scientist or data analyst should know. It’s why statistics was invented (gambling being the origin and gambling being short term risk vs averages).

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