Matt McGrath Trumpets The Latest Hurricane Junk Science
By Paul Homewood
h/t Ian Magness
More from the clueless Matt McGrath:
Climate change will expand the range of tropical cyclones, making millions more people vulnerable to these devastating storms, a new study says.
At present, these cyclones – or hurricanes as they are also known – are mainly confined to the tropical regions north and south of the equator.
But researchers say that rising temperatures will allow these weather events to form in the mid-latitudes.
This area includes cities such as New York, Beijing, Boston and Tokyo.
The study has been published in the journal Nature Geoscience.
The scientists involved say their work shows by the end of this century, cyclones will likely occur over a wider range than they have for three million years.
When subtropical storm Alpha made landfall in Portugal in September 2020, the relatively small scale of damage caused by the cyclone made few headlines.
But for scientists this was quite a momentous event.
Dr Studholme is the lead author of this new study, which projects that a warming climate will see the formation of more of these types of storms in the mid-latitudes, where most of the world’s population lives, and where most economic activity takes place.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-59775105
Quite what is unusual about a subtropical storming hitting Portugal eludes me.
But the idea that tropical cyclones don’t already affect places like New York and Tokyo is absurd. If anything, the numbers are actually declining.
Between 1950 and 1991, nine hurricanes made landfall in New York state or further north. Since then the only strike was Sandy in 2012. (Even the inclusion of Sandy is debatable, since it was officially classified as an extratropical storm at landfall)
As for Japan, the mainland is hit by an average of three typhoons every year:
About 30 typhoons form each year over the Northwest Pacific Ocean, of which an average of about seven or eight pass over Okinawa Prefecture, and about three hit the Japanese main islands, especially Kyushu and Shikoku. But any region of Japan, including Tokyo, Osaka and Hokkaido can be visited by typhoons.
https://www.japan-guide.com/e/e2117.html
And apart from the record year of 2004, they are not becoming more frequent:
https://www.nippon.com/en/features/h00256/
Finally, let’s return to that storm in Portugal. This was the meteorological coverage at the time:
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-11-04-what-is-a-subtropical-storm
Winds at sea were estimated at 50 mph, declining to 35 mph overland. This is hardly unprecedented.
Significantly the above link from the Weather Channel, which gives a good explanation of the difference between subtropical and other storms comments:
Subtropical storms were not officially recognized until the beginning of the satellite era, and they weren’t named until 2002.
The naming of subtropical storms only since 2002 explains why the number of named storms, including hurricanes, has ostensibly gone up.
The NWS also elaborate:
The NHC began naming subtropical storms in 2002. Between 1968 and 2001, subtropical storms were simply given numbers ("One", "Two", etc). Before 1968, subtropical storms were never classified as such, but were sometimes called "Unnamed storm". A landmark study performed by Herbert and Poteat (1975) led to a substantial increase in the identification and naming of subtropical storms in the late 1970s and early 1980s. However, when Bob Sheets became director of the National Hurricane Center between 1987 and 1995, he declared that subtropical storms should not be recognized, and very few subtropical storms were classified during this period. Prior to 1968, there are many systems that were subtropical in the Atlantic that should have been included in the official HURDAT database. I’ve seen estimates that 5-10 storms were missed in the 1950s, and ten storms between 1969 and 1999. A reanalysis effort is underway to include these "missed" storms into the database. However, it will be several years before this process is complete.
And as NWS show, subtropical storms typically form in the mid-latitudes already.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-11-04-what-is-a-subtropical-storm
This is no more than the usual junk science intended to scare the kids. It makes no attempt to use actual data to justify its assertions, which are all based around modelling.
And, naturally, it is faithfully trumpeted by the BBC, without any attempt to challenge the findings, or even bother to ask hurricane experts for their opinions.
Comments are closed.
NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
This is a case where it really might be Donald Trumps fault. However, it may be a case to populations migrating to hurricane prone areas rather the other way around.
The tax cuts in the US during his term along with the limits placed in state and local tax deductions, has many people in high tax states like California, New York and New Jersey migrating to Texas and Florida. So more people may be in harms way but they moved to where the hurricanes frequently land.
People have been migrating from places like New York and New Jersey to Florida since the 1950s.
The sky high housing costs and the markedly lower house costs in Texas have been attracting people from the US west coast too.
the SALT [State and local taxes] deduction is only used by a limited number of people, and is still quite high capped at $10,000, as most taxpayers dont itemise ( to get deductions like SALT) but take the standard $12k deduction instead
What scenario is used to produce their predictions? Is it the doomsters’ favorite, RCP8.5 and it’s cousins?
Cyclone Ned in 1989 affected Perth. Cyclone Alby in 1978 damaged the Busselton jetty which is over 100km. south of Perth. Still that is equivalent to northern Morrocco.
I’ve heard of a cyclone years ago that rounded Cape Leeuwin at the SW corner but was unable to find anything.
I wonder…does McGrath also think that cyclones and hurricanes also blow lots of black particles into the atmosphere in the same way that covid breathers do (in adverts) – or as CC nutters think that CO2 is (carbon) black?
How many more black tropes will the BBC come up with?
‘The study has been published in the journal Nature Geoscience.’
. . . because they’ll publish anything.
Look at these temperatures on the US Atlantic coast in September, the height of hurricane season.
https://www.seatemperatu.re/seas-and-oceans/atlantic-ocean/september/
Upper 70s °F are considered needed to support hurricanes. Temps above Virginia are too low. Off Massachusetts, downright COLD.
‘Climate change will expand the range of tropical cyclones, making millions more people vulnerable to these devastating storms, a new study says.’
Well, it better get expanding, cause sea temps are no where near high enough today. Cirrusly, is the temp off Nantucket going to go up 14°F by 2100? No. And it’s stupid to suggest they will.
Call me silly, but I think these people really don’t know anything about hurricane science at all. I assume McGrath isn’t a physicist.
Matt McGrath is a journalist.
Our elected politicians have voted unanimously to declare a climate emergency, and then enacted policies that demolished all the Power stations.
As a result Western Europe is dependent on Russian methane gas for its Energy supply.
The clean Green Energy supply strategy of the UK is at best aspirational and is unachievable.
I am sorry I have to disagree. There are next to no journalists left in the UK. He is an activist copywriter at best.
He should have checked with his sports desk – a typhoon hit Tokyo while we were there for the Rugby World Cup in 2019. It was obvious that it was a regular occurrence as the response from the city worked like clockwork. There was also an earthquake as the typhoon hit the centre of Tokyo.
“The scientists involved say their work shows by the end of this century, cyclones will likely occur over a wider range than they have for three million years.”
How can anyone take that seriously?
Forecasting 80 years into the future and comparing with every decade (say) in the last 3 million years. It’s utterly absurd. It’s pure fantasy.
We don’t know the range of hurricanes a hundred years ago. Yet “scientists” know back 3 million years. Science is AMAZING!
Ah, the BBC. I thought I was safe with Radio 3. But recently they have turned to the woke, younger set, even provide news items about the pop culture. Yesterday, the announcer in the Salford studio looked out of his little window and saw, to his chagrin, factory chimneys spewing toxicity into the air. My letter of complaint to the corporation posed the question, how do people afford the leisure to listen to Radio 3 without commerce, how do they afford radios? I could have asked how do musicians survive without commerce. It is not so much the weather or climate, this side-swipe at legitimate industry demonstrates the short circuit nature of verbal imagery (perhaps Tom McKinney was viewing steam) and the extent to which vilification by well remunerated individuals in ivory towers forms the basis of romantic illusion, a total lack of understanding. How these idealists suffer the modern environment. I bet Schuman didn’t have to put-up with smoke!
Given that large scale manufacturing barely takes place at all in the UK anymore I suspect the BBC studios are unlikely to be surrounded by the forest of brick chimneys that you see in old photos or drawings of northern cities such as Burnley.
I would venture that he can see the Valtris Speciality chemicals plant’s chimney, and a group of chimneys at the Cargill sweeteners plant. In the latter I would suspect it is steam from producing products for the confectionery, dairy, brewing and bakery industries – all very useful things for living a pleasant life as opposed to a peasant life the eco-fascists wish to see. Valtris makes plasticisers for plastics production including one flame retardation – possibly the eco-fascists would like more people to burn to death or die of smoke inhalation?
Richard North also has a go at the BBC today :http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=88206
“Climate change: a licence to lie” – “Alaska ‘Icemageddon’ warning follows heat record”
The BBC “scientist” in this case is Jack Hunter, who describes himself on LinkedIn thus:
“Award-winning journalist, currently writing and reporting on international news and politics for BBC News online. My stories appear on the front page of the BBC News website, as well as across popular radio and TV outlets including the News Channel, Radio 4’s Today and the World Service. Previously, a winner of the Today Programme’s Student Journalist of the Year Award; a trainee on the BBC’s prestigious Journalism Training Scheme; and a journalist on flagship BBC World Service and Radio 4 news programmes.”
Richard North also has this interesting link: https://electroverse.net/china-coldest-day-ever-seoulfreezes-blizzards-batter-russia-nepal-13-ft-in-turkey-vancouver-cold/
“Historic cold and snow has been buffeting eastern Asia in recent weeks, including the nations of China, Japan and South Korea”
I suspect Messrs Hunter, McGrath and Rowlatt will not be reporting on it.
I’m sure we can rely on Paul to put the BBC’s claim of highest New Year’s eve temperature ever into context.
Is it the hottest ever for this time of year?
Tony Heller has also taken a swing at the BBC. They’re probably loving all the attention.