Biden’s Climate Ambitions Are All But Dead
By Paul Homewood
I covered this story last year:
President Joe Biden came into office with more aggressive plans to fight what he called the “existential threat” of climate change than any of his predecessors. Three months into his presidency, he vowed to cut the carbon emissions of the world’s second-largest emitter in half by 2030, a pledge that helped re-establish American climate leadership on the global stage.
One year on, that signature climate goal is all but dead.
Political allies are now acknowledging what scientists who analyze U.S. policy options have confirmed: There’s virtually no viable path to slashing U.S. emissions in line with Biden’s 2030 target—at least not without major legislation that appears increasingly remote. “I am certainly grateful for the improvements we’ve seen under this administration, but it hasn’t gotten nearly far enough to be considered on track to address the climate crisis,” says Rep. Jared Huffman, a California Democrat who is a leading progressive in the House of Representatives.
At the center of this setback is an evenly split U.S. Senate that puts West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, a Democrat from a coal- and gas-rich state with a personal fortune tied to fossil fuel, in a position to make or break legislation. A proposal championed by the White House to spend around $555 billion on climate and clean-energy measures have stalled, and the approaching midterm elections make passage unlikely.
Without that half-trillion dollars in new spending, the scientists who study pathways for cutting U.S. emissions can’t see a way to deliver on Biden’s promise. “Congress has to act, and they have to act in a pretty substantial way,” says Mike O’Boyle, director of electricity policy at Energy Innovation, an energy and climate think tank in San Francisco. Otherwise, he says, “there is no way.”
Biden campaigned on creating a 100% clean electrical grid across the country by 2035. But the U.S. burned roughly 25% more coal to keep the lights on in Biden’s first year in White House than in the year prior under the openly pro-coal leadership of President Donald Trump. Output of greenhouse gas in 2021 also surged by an estimated 6% from 2020 levels as the economy recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the Rhodium Group, an independent research firm.
The simple reality is that making these bold promises is one thing. But carrying them out is another thing entirely. Even the $555bn bill mentioned would have been chicken feed, after having been stripped down to the bone.
Despite the billions already thrown at renewables during Obama’s days, wind and solar have barely made a dent in overall electricity generation, accounting for just 13% last year.
Although coal power has declined, it has mainly been replaced by gas. Coal and gas together still supply 60% of US electricity, down from 69% in 2010.
A “100% clean grid” by 2035 is a pipedream, no matter how much money Biden throws at renewables. The grid would simply implode without the dispatchable power provided by fossil fuels and nuclear (itself being phased out).
And electricity only accounts for a third of US carbon dioxide emissions.
The trends in total energy consumption are even more stark, with wind and solar contributing only 5%. In contrast, fossil fuels account for 79%:
As we have learnt here, hardly anybody wants to buy useless EVs, even when heavily subsidised. Similarly, homeowners and industry are not going to give up oil and gas voluntarily.
Whereas sales of conventional cars and gas boilers (probably) will be banned shortly, there is no chance such policies would be passed by Congress. Or that they would survive legal challenge, as I suspect they would be regarded as being a State concern, not a Federal one.
Without such compulsion, the Americans are not going to give up their cars.
For those who don’t follow US political affairs, Joe Biden is at record levels of unpopularity, as bad as Jimmy Carter’s. The mid-term elections in November are expected to be a landslide for the GOP, which would put an end to any meaningful climate legislation for at least two years, and probably much longer.
Whereas we have centralised government in this country, and all three parties are signed up to the same ruinous Net Zero policies, in the US the President has little power on his own. He has to carry both the House and the Senate with him, and it is rare that one party controls all three.
Even then laws can fall foul of the courts. For instance, Obama’s Clean Air Act, designed specifically to cut GHGs at power plants, still has not got off the ground, because of legal challenges, Currently it is before the Supreme Court.
Americans are suffering from record high petrol prices and 40 year high inflation, both largely the direct result of Biden’s policies. They certainly are not going to vote for Net Zero policies that make both much worse.
Where this leaves US climate policy is anybody’s guess. But I suspect US emissions in 2030 will be much the same as they are now.
FOOTNOTE
It is interesting that the US public widely recognise the link between high Federal spending, money printing and inflation, in a way that we don’t here in the UK. They blame Biden’s massive spending bills and increased borrowing in 2021 for much of the current inflation.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Maybe FJB finally realised (or someone did for him) that a more existential threat to the world is not CC but the old CCCP.
But then I see he has sanctioned $33B for the war in Ukraine. That’s gotta come from somewhere (CC Budget, one hopes) – but does the Big Man still get 10%?
I read a report that said they were firing as many anti-tank missiles in a day as they can make in a week and are burning through the stock at quite rate.
Talking about the “All but dead ….”
He needs to wear his reading glasses but leaves them off fo public appearances ? If so he sees everything as a blurr. When he wears sunglasses/driving glasses he has a very different face. I notice. The same is true of Hillary Clinton .
It is quite ironic that Mr. Biden was quick to take oil from strategic reserves to lower the price of fuels at the pump. Effectively putting the climate emergency and existential crisis on hold. John Kerry, who believes that the situation in the Ukraine is distracting us from addressing the more important climate crisis has not protested using oil to make fuels that add CO2 to the atmosphere. Neither have the other “green” members of the Congress. A dilemma for all protestors?
Running down the strategic reserve does little to lower prices. Rather, doing it when it shouldn’t be necessary simply makes markets more nervous about inadequate reserves should they really be needed.
Perhaps I am poor at keeping up with current events but who and when declared there to be a climate crisis?
The moronic UK Parliament with its Net Zero properity Act. Over half the local Govt Councils have made this insane announcement. Its all a political fantasy but these arrogant fools do it in our name. Now the docile public have been so indoctrinated with this fantasy guff they vote for the same fantasists to be back in power telling more lies. Perpetuasl motion it seems. And as we’ve seen with the failing to melt arctic and fusion power – we have to have ‘faith’ because its always 10yrs away. Faith is probably the most damaging of the deadly sins.
Chris Packham, mainly.
Thank you.
Biden’s state was entirely predictable – he was shot away, barely able to read the teleprompter + repeat what was in his ear in the selection TV debates. He can’t find his way from the helicopter on the lawn to the back door of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
This isn’t about Biden but the procession of lame, bent nitwits and poisonous activists he has in tow – who no doubt will *not* take any responsibility for the mess they’ve made. It remains to be seen if the goons will willfully pile in and go from uncomfortable to calamitous while they still have their seats on the gravy train.
The Democrats haven’t adopted “climate denier” yet but – “racist” is wearing a bit thin – I see that a “Ministry of Truth” is being instituted.
No glasses in public and shortsightness is typical of his age.. He wears glasses for driving and looks very different.
I see that a “Ministry of Truth” is being instituted.
For those that don’t follow US developments …
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rubio-dhs-misinformation-office-free-speech
The mid terms might not be as bad for the Democratic Party as you might imagine Paul. After all, Biden got a record vote share last time round without even leaving his care home in Delaware and campaigning. With Dominion counting machines, voter registers and ‘ballot drop off boxes’ under his party’s control I suspect that he’ll have nothing too much to worry about. There will be a carefully choreographed hit but nothing terminal unless the Republicans have got their act together. We’ll see.
Biden got a record vote share last time round without even leaving his care home in Delaware and campaigning.
Several millions more than Obama IIRC. That alone was enough to set off the alarm bells.
As well as the Democrats fighting tooth and nail to block any investigations into election fraud. You would think they had something to hide.
All I can say … is thank god, now for Australia to dump this crap
Sadly both of the Australian main parties have signed up to the Net Zero insanity. And the Greens are tipped as coalition partners for Labour in their current election. Same problem as in the UK – who do you vote for?
The USA has its own political international agenda which it will pursue with little regard for others.
The UK government policy is net zero emissions and it looks likely this will be achieved by self inflicted economic suicide.
Russia has weaponised energy supplies and USA led NATO has weaponised financial sanctions and stolen Russian assets. The rest of the world has noted this and will in future keep Western financial involvement at arms length. Our economy depends on international trade and financial investment, so our economic decline will speed up.
Good Points cooker. There seems to be a lack of awareness of the repercussions of the West’s lurch to destroying all rules of international law and property rights. Definitely want to keep your Gold buried in your garden. If you put it in a bank or other, the Western powers have shown they’ll steal it at a whim whenever they please. A fundamental global economic change is now upon us. No-one will trust the Western powers any more. Perhaps thats a long overdue good thing. I see the third world may tell the West to stick their COP net zero plans where the sun doesn’t shine, or at least follow China in saying one thing but do the opposite. After all, if the West can be so dishonest why shouldn’t the whole world copy and be dishonest too? Sad times.
As an aside, I agree with Tim Worstall that a part of inflation is not more money buy simply higher costs caused by the response to Covid and our energy policies. We have made things more expensive to produce. That’s not typical monetary inflation, it is higher cost. And given Covid businesses have had little ability to take costs out of their operations in the way they normally do.
Absolutely. This inflation is coming from both sides. Monetary demand inflation from profligate money printing, and also supply input inflation from shortages induced by insane covid panic and insane anti-energy policies. Energy is at the bottom of every supply chain. How do you mine and smelt the materials for everything – energy. Inflation is only just getting started; its going to get alot worse before the inevitable crash.
PS. The coal mining shares I recommended buying here mid last year are now up 450% but still a good buy – pe4.3 and & 7%divi. Buy fossil fuel energy producers but in safe jurisdictions if possible. Delinquent socialist countries like the UK threaten to steal property through ‘windfall taxes’. Strange they didnt talk about ‘windfall subsidies’ when the same companies made losses!
Is that the same Biden that begged the Saudis for more oil?
White House stops asking Saudi Arabia to pump more oil
https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-stops-asking-saudi-arabia-pump-more-oil-russia-report-2022-4
You’re going a bit far saying ev’s are useless, if you’re going to blow £40000 on a car you’d likely be better spending it on a Tesla than on a BMW. For the rest of us, who don’t have that cash, low rent ev’s still aren’t “useless”, but are too compromised in terms of space and range. Basically, a £20,000 Skoda will do the job just as effectively as £50,000 Mercedes but a Nissan Leaf won’t do what a Tesla can do.
That said, you’d be deluding yourself if you thought that owning a Tesla will help cut your emissions. As US coal usage demonstrates, our discretionary electricity comes from coal alone, you can’t just pull extra renewables out of a hat, you can however put on an extra shift at a coal mine. Every additional Tesla on the road is therefore coal powered, and therefore more carbon intensive than my clapped out old Fiat.
The climate agenda may be dead for practical purposes, but don’t underestimate the cost of reviving it and the hardship it will create especially amongst the middle- and low-income earners. Same for net zero.