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A Very Serious Consequence Of Climate Change–Sadiq Khan

July 16, 2022

By Paul Homewood

 

It seems that Sadiq Khan has been sending this extremely irresponsible and misleading warning out to his citizens – (my bold):

 

 

 image

There is no evidence whatsoever that the heatwave is a “consequence” of climate change. It is a weather event, one which is the direct result of an extremely rare set of meteorological conditions.

The clue to this lies in the weather models run a few days ago, which showed an extremely unlikely chance of temperatures reaching 40C. Weather models are run over and over again thousands of times, in order to provide a range of outcomes varying around very small changes to assumptions. In other words, the meteorological set up we are now likely facing was considered as an extreme outlier just a few days ago.

Even accepting that average summer temperatures in the UK have increased by a half a degree or so since the 1940s, the upcoming heatwave would still have occurred a century ago, albeit with temperatures a half a degree lower. In those days, of course, Londoners were much less prepared to deal with hot weather.

To label it as “potentially dangerous” is also irresponsible scaremongering, given that millions of Brits fly out to Spain and other countries, where temperatures are regularly much higher.

Of course, people need to take sensible precautions, but they don’t need the Mayor lecturing them.

While Khan is playing political games with climate change, I would ask whether he ever puts out red warnings every winter when it gets cold. Surely he knows that many more people die in the cold of winter?

And that death tolls in summer are always the lowest of any season, heatwaves or not.

Surely he would welcome a slightly warmer climate?

image

image

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2018to2019provisionaland2017to2018final

FOOTNOTE

The Met Office has issued its first ever Red Warning, which spans most of central England:

 

image 

 

Forecasts for towns such as Manchester and Leeds, which are encompassed by the warning indicate temperatures might reach about 36C.

Yet temperatures of 36C are certainly not unprecedented in the South East, but were never accompanied by Red Warnings?

Are the Met Office playing politics too?

77 Comments
  1. that man permalink
    July 16, 2022 11:15 am

    This ‘red warning’ is indeed a very serious consequence: of climate change hysteria.
    But phew! —I’m just outside the red blob, so I’ll survive.
    Is the Met Office playing politics?
    —does the Pope have a balcony?

    • Stuart Hamish permalink
      July 16, 2022 5:57 pm

      A GB News presenter made the point that back in the 1970’s 80’s and 90’s the predicted hot spells on the British Isles weather maps were not emblazoned with fierce red and orange smothering blobs but sun motifs and the temperature forecasts next to them…….This Red Warning sensationalism from the Met Office is just a classic ‘nudge unit ‘ extension of covid fearmongering fanned by the media and climate alarmist crusaders like Sadiq Khan …….This short heatwave will be nothing like the stifling summer heatwaves of 2003 , 1976 and 1911 or even the hot dry weather leading up the Great Fire of London in the 1660’s

  2. Gerry, England permalink
    July 16, 2022 11:32 am

    Of course the Met Office are playing politics. Now they are part of BEIS and not the MoD they have become a politically driven organisation. The death of another formally respected body.

    And this morning we have 102f for Tuesday according to weather-forecast. But that might change by this afternoon as it did yesterday.

    • dennisambler permalink
      July 16, 2022 11:49 am

      Didn’t see your post before I said the same!

    • Gerry, England permalink
      July 16, 2022 3:38 pm

      LOL The 102f from this morning is now down to 100f this afternoon. But it will change tomorrow.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      July 16, 2022 5:29 pm

      The app on my phone is showing 2-3 degrees higher than both the Met Office ard for Bury in Suffolk where I am now and Meteo France are for Bergerac where I’ll be on Monday. The Met Office is showing 35 for Monday. Hot but so what?

      • July 16, 2022 6:15 pm

        Yes, BBC just forecast 40C for London on Monday but Met Office says 35C for Chelsea. Who is kidding who?

  3. Gamecock permalink
    July 16, 2022 11:36 am

    wunderground.com forecasts 100F Monday, low 76 (!) into Tuesday for London.

    Hysteria aside, that low is a problem, too. We’ll be in the mid-90s most of the week here, but our overnight lows will be lower than that. I haven’t seen a low that high in years.

    Attribution to ‘climate change’ is argumentum ad ignorantiam.

    • Gerry, England permalink
      July 16, 2022 3:40 pm

      Are you seeing the same discrepancies on wunderground between the 10 day headline number and what you get if you follow the red graph with your mouse? I get 1 or 2 degrees lower on the graph which it backed up in the hourly.

      • Gamecock permalink
        July 16, 2022 4:08 pm

        Yes, but it is typical of wunderground forecasts here, too.

        They are now saying 101/77.

        I looked ahead on hourly to their Monday forecast. Highest hourly number is indeed 99.

        But, more importantly, I see the dew point is under 50. Your humidity will be down to 20%. That is going to significantly reduce the impact of the temperature. I’d say enough to take you out of the red zone.

      • Gerry, England permalink
        July 17, 2022 10:14 am

        I have emailed wunderground about the discrepancy.

        Yes, the humidity is less than 15% during the peak temperature and so on the weather-forecast page in the ‘feels like’ field when the peak is 100f it will feel like 88f. That is quite a difference. Anyone know why?

  4. Gamecock permalink
    July 16, 2022 11:38 am

    BTW, two days does not a heatwave make.

    • dennisambler permalink
      July 16, 2022 11:48 am

      3 days, yes!

    • Ben Vorlich permalink
      July 16, 2022 1:05 pm

      A heatripple?

    • Gerry, England permalink
      July 16, 2022 3:47 pm

      Don’t forget that they changed the temperature at which a heatwave is declared.

      I believe the WMO consider 5 days is needed for a heatwave which seems much more sensible.

  5. dennisambler permalink
    July 16, 2022 11:48 am

    Are the Met Office playing politics too?

    Of course they are. They are controlled these days by BEIS and have to provide the pseudo-science credo to support the Net Zero agenda.

  6. Sylvia permalink
    July 16, 2022 11:53 am

    The trouble is, these idiotic scaremongers get caught out a few days after “scare”. Why do they do it when they know the truth will come a day after their LIES ??!!

  7. mjr permalink
    July 16, 2022 11:54 am

    a number of posters on a reddit site i frequent compared BBC forecasts with met office and other weather providers and all commented that the BBC was 2-3C higher for their locations (a wide geographical spread)
    My observations for monday were
    Darksky (Apple) = 27
    Met Office = 28
    Weather.com = 29
    BBC = 32

    conclusion? . BBC are lying bastards

    • Tinny permalink
      July 16, 2022 2:36 pm

      Yup. Noticed this as well.
      In the winter, the BBC are 2 degrees colder than reality.

    • Realist permalink
      July 16, 2022 4:12 pm

      And NONE of those, not even 32 degrees is particularly warm for summer.

    • Crowcatcher permalink
      July 17, 2022 5:26 am

      I use Windy and that predicts 36C for London – heatwave – not!!!!!

  8. Philip permalink
    July 16, 2022 11:55 am

    Ah the dreaded “red warning” ! Only introduced in 2021!

    • Harry Passfield permalink
      July 16, 2022 12:06 pm

      It’s RED for a reason: it suits a particular political dogma.

      That said, if hot weather can make our leaders wet themselves over issuing a ‘National Emergency’ what on earth would tgey do if Putin decided to send a few rockets our way?

  9. July 16, 2022 12:12 pm

    Meanwhile here in Penang we are suffering unseasonably cool weather, following week forecasts nightliws down to 22deg C. Might have to dig out the hot water bittle

    Sun 32. 25
    Mon 31. 25
    Tues 32. 25
    Wed.32. 25
    Thurs. 32. 25
    Patchy rain possible every day (we should be so lucky)

    • Ben Vorlich permalink
      July 16, 2022 1:31 pm

      Arctic Temperatures
      Daily Mean Temperatures North of 80 degree North.

      Remains below 1958-2002 mean

      http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

      • Gamecock permalink
        July 16, 2022 8:04 pm

        We have no method to measure temperatures above 60N.

      • Ben Vorlich permalink
        July 16, 2022 10:40 pm

        Well DMI have been doing daily rports since 1958, so best let them know they’re wasting their time!

      • Gamecock permalink
        July 17, 2022 2:59 am

        5 data points for a million square miles.

        “The daily mean temperature of the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel is estimated from the average of the 00z and 12z analysis for all model grid points inside that area.”

    • Stephen Hedges permalink
      July 16, 2022 1:33 pm

      Surely everyone in Penang is dead? That comparatively cool spell equates to a wet-bulb temperature of around 27C, fully 6 degrees higher than that predicted for England early next week.

      • July 17, 2022 12:43 pm

        Not so, the “feels like” temp is 6 or 7 degrees higher due to the very high humidity here

    • Stephen Hedges permalink
      July 18, 2022 9:16 am

      My point was that the current weather appears to be comparatively cool for Penang which I always found to be even hotter than KL, where I lived for a decade. I highlighted the “wet bulb” because the high temperatures we are about to experience in England are accompanied by exceptionally low humidity. The “feels like” temp. is a useful but different measure entirely (during the 2016 El Nino, I recall it reaching 54C in the Philippines).

  10. Dave Gardner permalink
    July 16, 2022 12:13 pm

    On cold weather related deaths in London, which Sadiq Khan would likely have no interest in, there was a scientific paper published in 1796 “Of the influence of cold upon the health of the inhabitants of London” by William Heberden:

    https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstl.1796.0013

    January 1795 was a very cold month, the coldest in the Central England temperature record at -3.1 deg C. In London, Heberden reported that there were 2823 deaths (burials) with 717 aged over 60.

    But the following year 1796 had a much milder January, resulting in 1471 deaths with 153 aged over 60. The old age death toll in London had dropped by a factor of 4.7 going from a cold to a milder January.

    • Dave Andrews permalink
      July 16, 2022 3:31 pm

      The i newspaper had a piece on 14th July saying figures from the Office of National Statistics indicate that “climate-related mortality” -deaths from extreme cold or heat- had fallen by around 27,000 a year since 2001. Fewer deaths during warmer winters have more than offset rising mortality rates during heatwaves.

      Quoting directly from an ONS report earlier this year

      “We found relatively little increase in deaths caused by warmer weather and a reduction in deaths caused by cold winters, leading to a net decrease in deaths.”

      • Chaswarnertoo permalink
        July 17, 2022 10:14 am

        One is 10 x more likely to die of cold than heat in the UK.

  11. MrGrimNasty permalink
    July 16, 2022 12:39 pm

    Best BBC warnings I’ve heard so far!

    Your car will become a microwave.

    Black people can burn too.

    Pet snakes will be faster and more likely to escape.

    These are all genuine and were said seriously.

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      July 16, 2022 12:50 pm

      Super dangerous.

      We’re not trying to take the fun out the sun.

  12. Philip Mulholland permalink
    July 16, 2022 1:08 pm

    Summer – A Very Serious Consequence Of Climate Seasonal Change.

  13. Stephen H permalink
    July 16, 2022 1:27 pm

    The Mayor Khan(t) proving once again that there’s no bandwagon too ridiculous that he won’t jump on it.

  14. 2hmp permalink
    July 16, 2022 1:36 pm

    Yesterday the highest UK temperatures were ALL estimates from the Met Office.

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      July 16, 2022 2:08 pm

      It wasn’t particularly hot so Heathrow rose up as per usual, 27.2C, looks likely to be very similar again today (Saturday).

  15. StephenP permalink
    July 16, 2022 1:44 pm

    The urban heat island effect with all that concrete and tarmac never seems to be mentioned.
    Although on occasion weather forecasters have been known to say that “in the countryside temperatures will be 2 or 3 degrees C cooler”.

    • Gerry, England permalink
      July 17, 2022 10:19 am

      The joy for us in the countryside is that temperatures in the evenings can be 4 or 5 degrees C lower than Greater London or built up areas such as around Gatwick airport. I think Monday night will be a tough one but I use a gel sleeping pad and have a fan with a timer that you put on while going to sleep.

  16. Nicholas Lewis permalink
    July 16, 2022 2:15 pm

    Remember there getting desperate to find any sign of climate change as there prophesies are failing to come to fruition. My own sector says this shows we need to invest now to adapt our infrastructure to deal with regular temps above 40 deg C is just an excuse to get more money out of the government.

  17. John Halstead permalink
    July 16, 2022 2:23 pm

    Cherry picking events in a period of natural climate variation is the sign of an ill informed prat jumping on and propelling a populist bandwagon. Unfortunately lots of people will believe him.

  18. Vernon E permalink
    July 16, 2022 2:49 pm

    Paul “even though temperatures have increased by half a degree since the 1940s ” is hard for me toi reconcile with the glorious summers that I remember from my childhood in the (fairly typical) resort of Rhyl. All those resorts developed since the Victorians invented leisure time and the benefits of the seaside (ozone etc). The open air swimming pools opened in May with water temperatures of around 57F and reached well into the 70s by July. By 1980 when most of them were closing the water never got above the mid 60s. I was not in the UK in 1976 so I can’t remeber the heatwave, but overall the first half of the 20th century seemed to me to be much hotter.

  19. Ulric Lyons permalink
    July 16, 2022 4:58 pm

    Brief Saharan plumes require negative North Atlantic Oscillation conditions for a wavier jet stream, but rising CO2 forcing is modeled to increase positive NAO (NAM) conditions. Predictably, the Saharan plumes are more common during low solar periods.

    https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-3-5-6.html

    • Stuart Hamish permalink
      July 16, 2022 5:37 pm

      And on and on it goes

  20. 186no permalink
    July 16, 2022 5:20 pm

    Dear Mayor Khan, please enlighten us whether you are more concerned to act against a “potentially dangerous” weather event that might, just might, last for 2 days or the lethally dangerous increase in knife crime and murders involving knives, especially amongst and between certain ethnic groups as reported? One you cannot control, the other you have implemented strategies which appear to have had little to no evident beneficial result?

  21. Phoenix44 permalink
    July 16, 2022 5:31 pm

    Very careful? It’s going to be a bit hot for a couple of hours. This really is becoming an utter joke.

    Hopefully it’s so stupid lots of people will be turned off the scares.

  22. John Hultquist permalink
    July 16, 2022 5:49 pm

    All things are relative:
    Gila Bend AZ is 38°C at 9 AM. Forecast is for a high of 45° (113°F). Much the same for the past couple of days, and for the coming week. The lows are plus or minus 30°C.
    Sadiq Khan should take a TV crew and film all the dead people.

    • July 16, 2022 6:28 pm

      Point taken but few people have air con at home in London, or Britain for that matter, as temps over 30C are occasional only, and short-lived (apart from 1976).

    • Stuart Hamish permalink
      July 17, 2022 1:18 pm

      John I think Sadiq Khan – who defended Nation of Islams Louis Farrkhan and the Jew hating suicide bomber endorsing Muslim Brotherhood cleric Sheikh Qaradawi – should be reminded of his pronouncement that its all ‘part and parcel of living in a big city ” …Its amazing Khan is more concerned to promote fearmongering about a hot London day forecast to be not much warmer than August 9 1911 during Londons great 1911 heatwave [ 40 000 French died during that summers sweltering heat ] than violent crime worsening under his mayorlty ..Then again his latest bout of climate alarmist hysteria may serve as a convenient distraction from Khan’s mounting problems …. It is no suprise to learn that London’s institutionally corrupt and shockingly incompetent Metropolitan Police have recently been placed under external control ‘special measures ” …..

      .He has the nerve to entitle his disgraceful mayoralty a ‘public service ”

      Tony Heller recently divulged this archived report in The Guardian [ London Greater London ] dated Friday August 11, 1911 : ” 100 Degrees in London ”

      ” From official information it is now clear that Wednesday [ August 9 ] was not only one of the very hottest days known in the south east of England but absolutely the hottest for the seventy years during which observations have been kept at Greenwich ……In the London area it was the hottest day of which there is any authentic record . Hitherto the highest shade temperature recorded at Greenwich Observatory has been 97 but that has now been beaten by three degrees . The maximum thermometer at the Observatory [ of course daily screened ] attained the unprecedented figure of 100 sometime on Wednesday afternoon . In several other parts of London the reading of 97 was registered ” https://newspapers.com/newspage/258485087

      There is nothing new under the English sun and the hot temperatures are not a ‘very serious consequence of climate change ” .The 1911 and 1976 heatwaves will not be surpassed this summer

  23. catweazle666 permalink
    July 16, 2022 6:20 pm

    UK weather: Met Office warns it won’t be safe to go outside and ‘play in the sun’ next week
    There’s a 50pc chance that temperatures of more than 40C will be seen, the first time this has been predicted for the country

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/15/met-office-issues-first-ever-red-heat-warning/

    A 50% chance, really?

    So, with tens – hundreds? – of millions of quids’ worth of supercomputer driven “climate models”, the Met Orifice can estimate the probability of a weather event to the same level of accuracy as tossing a coin…

    Colour me impressed!

    • StephenP permalink
      July 16, 2022 8:48 pm

      seeing that the forecasters’ maps show the red hot area over much of Europe, how are they coping over there?

      • mikewaite permalink
        July 17, 2022 2:23 pm

        A huge mass of them on bikes racing through the countryside and up and down mountains at speeds up to 50km/hr.

  24. M Fraser permalink
    July 16, 2022 6:21 pm

    These people are so stupid. Do they not realise the rest of Europe and the planet just carry on, no semblance of panic at le Tour this week with 37 degrees and the riders just cracking on! Has the mayor ever made a positive comment about anything, he really is a drain! He’s matched by the MP for Arfon who complained about the air force flying over Caernarfon frightening the Ukrainian refugees and schoolchildren…… how about ‘wow! Work hard and you could fly one of those, kids’. So ruddy negative!

  25. thecliffclavenoffinance permalink
    July 16, 2022 7:45 pm

    A hot day in the Summer !
    Time to panic
    Head for the hills
    Never happened before
    People will melt.

  26. Harry Passfield permalink
    July 16, 2022 8:20 pm

    The only thing Khan wants to manage is ability to tax it.
    In my youth it was considered that Daley’s Chicago was the epitome of sleaze and pay-off but Kahn’s Mayoralty goes some way to exceeding that.

  27. Leedschris permalink
    July 16, 2022 10:44 pm

    It should also be noted that a temperature of 36c (96f -measured to the whole degree at that time) has been reached in Yorkshire before and in September. The great 1906 heatwave gave 4 consecutive days above 90f/32c and the 96f was recorded at Bawtry Hall, near Doncaster.

  28. cookers52 permalink
    July 17, 2022 7:19 am

    My wife just complained that it was quite chilly and asked could I close all the French windows I had just opened.
    I admonished her for being a climate change denier and pointed out the dangerous extreme heat warnings from all who knèw about such things.
    She gave me a warning glance, and I closed the French windows.
    Such is the impacts of net zero climate extinction.

  29. MrGrimNasty permalink
    July 17, 2022 7:24 am

    Hottest on Saturday was Heathrow 29.1C
    The heat is moving up, Guernsey and Jersey are warmest early morning Sunday.
    Met Office and BBC forecasts have diverged, MO is predicting previous record level more or less, BBC up to 41C and record breaking by a fair margin.

    • July 17, 2022 8:35 am

      Quite chilly this morning on the Dorset coast, a cooling Easterly breeze, and the sea cooled by it, and by wave mixing, still only 15.2C sea surface, a long way from the 16.5C July max.

  30. Peter Tuckey permalink
    July 17, 2022 8:17 am

    Here in Turkey it’s been 40ºC+ on and off for weeks…currently 43ºC in the garden…kids outside playing football and basketball…the only emergency here is that I’ve run out of beer…

  31. Harry Passfield permalink
    July 17, 2022 3:00 pm

    Forty years ago (gulp!), with wife and new daughter, I was camping out on the North Myrtle Beach NC. At 11 pm the local news came on and announced that the current weather for Myrtle Beach was 90 Deg F with 95% humidity!!! Oh where was government warning is with ‘national emergencies’? And yet, here we still are…

  32. Sylvia permalink
    July 17, 2022 3:10 pm

    I got this in my email and promptly deleted it !! I do not respond to being “frightened” by some ignorant foreigner who I do not know. A complete waste of MY MONEY it seems.

  33. Joe Public permalink
    July 17, 2022 7:37 pm

    Hands up, who remembers (or rather can’t forget) Mungo Jerry?

    “In the summertime, when the weather is hot ….”

  34. grammarschoolman permalink
    July 17, 2022 7:58 pm

    Judging by the map, the Red Warning is designed to scare the Red Wall, just when a new Prime Minister might do the right thing to Net Zero.

    • Carbon 500 permalink
      July 17, 2022 10:37 pm

      grammarschoolman: the only thing I’d like to see a new Prime Minister do is to scrap all of the Net Zero nonsense – that would definitely be the right thing to do.
      Fat chance…..

  35. July 18, 2022 12:02 am

    I see Nicholas Lewis commented upthread –

    “Remember there getting desperate to find any sign of climate change as there prophesies are failing to come to fruition. My own sector says this shows we need to invest now to adapt our infrastructure to deal with regular temps above 40 deg C is just an excuse to get more money out of the government.”

    hi Nick – yup, it’s a gravy train, just wondering what ” sector” you work in ?

    ps – are you the Lewis from Lewis & Curry papers & others ?

  36. PeterW permalink
    July 18, 2022 5:25 am

    “the upcoming heatwave would still have occurred a century ago”

    Over at RealClimate, they have some news clippings from ‘a century ago’, that says that London had a temperature over 100F.
    https://realclimatescience.com/2022/07/100-degrees-in-london/

  37. europeanonion permalink
    July 18, 2022 9:49 am

    Since the defining of the human gnome it is apparent that I have brassica genes in my body. I think I also have a lizard contribution too, as I don’t seem to come alive until the temperature exceeds 25c. Coming to a holiday near you: Remember those cigarette packets, lurid pictures and stark messages, or the sugar peril? Imagine what they will be doing to aeroplane tickets if you decide on a hot country destination. Rain on Wednesday forecast. We have the worst of all worlds, no warm weather clothes chic and no cold weather preparation. The best you can say for British weather is that nothing lasts for long (cue Joanie Mitchell)

  38. europeanonion permalink
    July 18, 2022 9:59 am

    On this day in 1955 279 mm of rain fell on Martinstown in Dorset and a temperature of 32.4 recorded in Willington. On the 19th 36.5 at Wisley in 2006, 20th recorded 35.1 at Cambridge in 1900. The rest of July’s history is littered with temperatures in the 30’s

  39. Gerry, England permalink
    July 18, 2022 11:08 am

    To my surprise, just after midnight I was sure I could hear heavy raindrops on the conservatory. Muting the TV, it was clear it was raining. It was very short-lived and there was a flash of lightning to the east in Kent but no rumble of thunder. Funnily enough, I just set up a new rain gauge yesterday and it had about 0.5mm in it this morning. Don’t recall any forecast with rain.

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      July 18, 2022 12:07 pm

      Yes, noticed a line of small showers on the rain radar.

      • MrGrimNasty permalink
        July 18, 2022 12:11 pm

        There’s currently an arc of spits and spots in the SW/S central area.

  40. Terry Breverton permalink
    July 18, 2022 12:45 pm

    today – Met Office reporting thousands could die. Me? I loved 1976, spent summer sheltering in pubs. I’ve worked in Saudi in extreme temperatures, and in the Khuzestan desert in Iran likewise. Allegedly the hottest place on Earth for working (it was a massive flare-capping project to send liquefied gas via two huge pipe lines). The Iranians had been flaring off gas since the 30s. Milankovic was correct – ice age coming…

    Sent from Outlookhttp://aka.ms/weboutlook

  41. Gamecock permalink
    July 20, 2022 10:11 pm

    A friend is putting scallops in his aquarium.

    He heard that, “Pretty soon, you’ll be eating your pets.”

    So he has picked his pets wisely.

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