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What Happened To The Ice-Free Arctic?

September 26, 2022

By Paul Homewood

I wonder how these predictions worked out? (Answers tomorrow!!)



Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.

Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.

Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.

Summer melting this year reduced the ice cover to 4.13 million sq km, the smallest ever extent in modern times.

Remarkably, this stunning low point was not even incorporated into the model runs of Professor Maslowski and his team, which used data sets from 1979 to 2004 to constrain their future projections. "Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007," the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.

"So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative."















  1. Tim Spence permalink
    September 26, 2022 7:18 pm

    (Answers tomorrow) How can I bear the tension, how many Wadhams could it be?

  2. W Flood permalink
    September 26, 2022 7:19 pm

    Better than that I have a Guardian article from 2010 where the great John Kerry predicts the UK will have a Siberian climate by now.

    • mjr permalink
      September 27, 2022 8:44 am

      well, it is a bit chilly this morning.. i am considering putting socks on

    • Graeme No.3 permalink
      September 26, 2022 9:48 pm

      The Sydney Morning Herald (the nation’s oldest newspaper as they like to boast) predicted in 1971 that the Great Barrier Reef would be dead by Christmas that year.
      There have been numerous repeat predictions since, although as Peter Ridd points out the last 2 years have shown more coral than ever.

      • Chaswarnertoo permalink
        September 27, 2022 7:57 am

        Record high coral.

  3. September 26, 2022 7:28 pm

    You couldn’t make it, although obviously that shower did.

  4. September 26, 2022 7:54 pm

    Could I venture a guess that all the predictions failed to come about?!!

    • Gerry, England permalink
      September 29, 2022 10:49 am

      Given their track record on predictions of any sort over the last 30 to 40 years is a very round zero, I think your prediction is spot on.

  5. September 26, 2022 8:03 pm

    If the models are right, the Arctic must be wrong 🤓

  6. Joe Public permalink
    September 26, 2022 8:21 pm

    Jit provided a long list, complete with references, of failed Arctic predictions here:

  7. frankobaysio permalink
    September 26, 2022 8:47 pm

    Cannot something be done to counteract these alarmist headlines which must worry young people in particular? There is no data to justify these predictions.
    ” A 1.5 metre rise, expected in 2110, will see Keyhaven Marshes submerged, including the nearby Milford on Sea, and Lymington. Unfortunately, this also means the historic Hurst Castle is threatened.”
    “Of course, the projection is much worse by 2170, when sea levels are believed to rise by five metres if carbon dioxide emissions remain unchecked.”
    Interactive maps.

  8. September 26, 2022 9:12 pm

    Cliamte walks while bullshot talks. Or Predictions meet observations, and lose.

  9. September 26, 2022 9:15 pm

    I meant “Climate walks while bullshit talks”, of course. Need cataract op AND another new keyboard…………..

    • Devoncamel permalink
      September 27, 2022 6:28 am

      Had both cataracts done. Can I go halves on a double keyboard deal? No modelling involved, honest.

  10. MrGrimNasty permalink
    September 26, 2022 9:21 pm

    I only caught 2 minutes of Frozen Planet last night but that was enough for Sir DA to tell me the Arctic is warming fast, it gets to 22C ‘these days’ in Svalbard, and as a result the Walruses were overheating!
    Now that statement is almost true in that one place nearly reached 22C recently, but it is criminally misleading.
    “In July 2020, the temperature in Longyearbyen reached 21.7 °C (71 °F), and there were four days in a row with highs equal to or above 20 °C (68 °F). Previously, the temperature had hit 21.3 °C (70.3 °F) in July 1979, but otherwise, in most years it had not gone above 18 °C (64.5 °F).”

  11. September 26, 2022 10:20 pm

    They probably confuse the Arctic ice with the ice that melts in their moonshine grogs …

  12. Curious George permalink
    September 26, 2022 10:54 pm

    Why don’t you have any respect for false prophets?

  13. MrGrimNasty permalink
    September 26, 2022 11:10 pm

    Using 2021 minimum and claimed long term annual decline at NSIDC I reckon 2069 to reach the ice free defined 1,000,000 km2, except the decline has almost declined to zilch in recent years.

  14. Gamecock permalink
    September 26, 2022 11:55 pm

    Who in their right mind WANTS the Arctic covered in sea ice? An ice free Arctic would be of immense VALUE to Man.

    • dave permalink
      September 27, 2022 7:53 am


      About 1972 there was a flurry of excitement in financial circles in Canada when a
      group of respected “expert scientists” predicted that, as a result of a natural cycle, the Arctic would warm by 2000 by twenty degrees F. The excitement was because the warming was regarded as being a bonanza for Canada. At a stroke, the useable land would increase by a million square miles and half the world’s trade would be passing along Canada’s coast taking the short route.

      Completely irrespective of “normal” scientific back and forth between theory and experiment, the mere fact of a series of predictions being wildly wrong establishes without a doubt that the people making those predictions are wrong in whatever it is they believe or think they know. There is absolutely no point in investigating THEIR FAILURES. Find someone who is getting it right occasionally and investigate HIS SUCCESSES.

      There is a phrase, “a beautiful theory destroyed by an ugly fact.” I prefer,
      “an ugly theory destroyed by a beautiful fact.” Of course, silly people will continue to cling to their beliefs until grim death.

      • Chaswarnertoo permalink
        September 27, 2022 7:59 am

        We seem to have an excess of very silly people.

      • devonblueboy permalink
        September 27, 2022 8:03 am

        The result of Tony Bliar’s decision that 50% of school leavers should go to “university”?

  15. September 27, 2022 12:12 am

    I saw a mad claim in a tweet today from an activist coalition org
    that they got cos a BBC environment show had presented claims in a misleading way.
    The activists are so NOT based in the real world
    that none of the accounts followers called it out
    Indeed 4 retweeted it proving they think the mad claim is true.
    One was a senior doctor and one is a climate scientist PhD.

  16. September 27, 2022 12:31 am

    Monday 9:07pm BBC Radio Humberside was carrying an apparently weekly eco activist show Eco Time

    GBnews show panels have to have crazy-lefties on
    in order to comply with Ofcom balance Rules
    I bet this BBC radio show
    and the Climate Change channel on 79 EarthX TV
    don’t bother with balance and Ofcom leave them alone

  17. John Hultquist permalink
    September 27, 2022 4:23 am

    I think one of the great cons of the Climate Cult is Wadhams’ goal post switcheroo of “Ice Free” to one million square kilometres, the size of Egypt.
    This is an example of the “Clustering Illusion” and sometimes the similar Texas Sharpshooter fallacy. There are good cartoons regarding these things.

    • September 27, 2022 8:33 am

      And when that still doesn’t work, keep kicking the prediction can down the road to Infinity.

    • dave permalink
      September 27, 2022 9:06 am

      Careful writers make the distinction between pack ice (drifting) and fast ice (stuck fast to a shallow bottom.) But since when do zealots masquerading as rational people write with care? ”

      “Ice-Free”sounds dramatic. But Wadham must have belatedly realized that he was giving a hostage to fortune by saying it, because of the existence of fast ice; and therefore got his weaselling in early. I would guess that he did expect the fast ice also to disappear eventually. All irrelevant now.

      The central mistake was to believe that the pack ice NEEDED a kernel of multi-year ice if it was to regrow in the winter; and then to deduce from the loss of the multi-year ice after 2000 that the pack-ice would quicly shrivel. It was always an ignorant assumption. As long ago as the middle of the 19th Century, it was known that water near to freezing develops innumerable spicules of ice and it is the coalescence of these which are the kernels for ice growth. But I do not suppose the likes of Wadham even know that Victorian scientists were giants compared to modern scientists and should always be mined like a precious mother lode for their knowledge.

      The particular question which led Victorian scientists to discover the spicules was the practical one asked of them by engineers of why ice developed suddenly in rivers and swept away bridges. A particular problem on the St Laurence at Montreal.

  18. europeanonion permalink
    September 27, 2022 8:44 am

    Speculation is always triumphant, Pascal laid a bet on the idea that there is a God seeking to cover his soul at no cost. The ephemeral speculation has a life, forms a following, momentarily halts progress in its tracks. The fact that it is sensational, tangential, takes those working to disavow the last romance a while to refocus. For those others are seeking truth and not just surmise or devilry. The new assertion makes dinner parties hum for a while but by the time coffee is served it will have been supplanted, it is a movable feast and its invention less stringent than fact and therefore more readily conceived.

    Such a paperchase can have the oxygen of verity until minds trained to stricter analysis can dampen the previous preoccupation and gird themselves for the next. Like some ancient soothsayers trade, the presentation of certain conjunctions is inevitably about the future and therefore irrefutable. You cannot totally eradicate the postulation because its foundation is inevitably the future, has not occurred, remains a possibility. Science cannot refute the idea because it has no reality, is a formulation, a game of chance that bets on sequences and simplistic certainty.

    This immediacy is the engine room of the hysteria we experience. People may mot be able, may be unwilling to understand the activity of sun, air, wind and natural evolution, but they can attach to a well moulded and graphically illustrated vision of the end. We live in a Medieval world. Where, as then, it was the Latin text holding people in thrall and threatening damnation now it is eloquence, vocabulary and drama. In fact, all the elements of the old church and its certainty about damnation and purgatory used in a modern context. We have been bad ergo, we must pay.

    • Gamecock permalink
      September 27, 2022 10:51 am

      The future isn’t what it used to be.

    • Thomas Carr permalink
      September 27, 2022 11:08 am

      You may enjoy, therefor, reading Andrew Doyle’s new book ” The New Puritans”

  19. Coeur de Lion permalink
    September 27, 2022 9:50 am

    Just under four point seven this equinox. Luckily nobody took my five plus bet in July!

  20. Thomas Carr permalink
    September 27, 2022 11:05 am

    There is so much erudition and sheer competence among those who enjoy Paul’s promptings and our own responses that there must be enough material for a book which I would help to sponsor. One problem: so much of what has been predicted by climate speculators is conditioned and qualified that the ‘slam dunk’ we sought would be blunted . Then there’s the journalists whose anxiety to file copy overwhelms their concern for the facts.

  21. September 27, 2022 12:25 pm

    In which other profession do people fail so badly and consistently, YET keep their jobs?

    Rotten to the core!

    • September 27, 2022 1:36 pm

      How about the DVLA, The Passport Office, the civil service…..??

  22. eastdevonoldie permalink
    September 27, 2022 7:39 pm

    Does this sound familiar?

    “The Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer, and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard‐of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Within a few years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make most coastal cities uninhabitable.” —
    from an Associated Press report published in The Washington Post on Nov. 2, 1922.
    The Global Warming Apocalypses That Didn’t Happen

  23. eastdevonoldie permalink
    September 27, 2022 7:41 pm

    Even better – the “97% of scientists agree……….” lie

  24. September 28, 2022 9:17 am

    Time for Arctic sea ice alarmists to start another game of *kick the can down the road*. Do we hear 2040/2070/2100/other? Place bets now!

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