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Met Office Latest Extreme Weather Claims

November 14, 2022

By Paul Homewood



For many years, the UK Met Office, under its various guises, was respected as an honest, dependable public service of high integrity. Originally formed in 1854 by Robert Fitzroy, of HMS Beagle fame, it went on to produce the world’s first shipping forecast, the first public weather forecast, and world leading advances in the science of weather forecasting.

Sadly, while there are still many there who are continuing these traditions, the Met Office has been taken over at the top by climate cultists, who are more interested in pushing their agenda than public service.

Even by their now low standards, their latest attempt to sell the climate scare truly scrapes the bottom of the barrel:





Over the last decade the world has witnessed many extreme weather events including record-breaking temperatures this summer in England and devastating wildfires in Australia in 2019 and 2020.

Climate scientists have been beginning to assess which regions are already affected by multiple increases in extreme weather events and other climate change impacts.

A new analysis by the Met Office – which builds on work by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other sources – has looked at six types of extreme event and climate change impact and tried to assess overlapping trends across different regions of the world.

The trend data has been collated into a series of seven maps: one each for the six types of climate extreme or impact; and a composite map showing the number of cumulative extreme events and change impact for each region.

Examples of impactful extreme events attributed to human-caused climate change have also been included, with statistics on losses of human lives and biodiversity, and economic damages.



Prof Richard Betts MBE, who is Head of Climate Impacts Research at the Met Office and University of Exeter, led the study. He said: “It is clear from our analysis that all regions of the world are experiencing increases in extreme weather or other impacts of climate change, and these are costing lives and causing widespread environmental and economic damage.”

The six categories covered in the study are:

  • Extreme high temperatures
  • Heavy rainfall
  • River flows
  • Agricultural drought
  • Fire weather
  • Loss of ice mass from glaciers

Professor Betts continued: “Nearly all regions are suffering multiple impacts, including many in the Global South with the least historical responsibility for climate change. All inhabited continents have regions seeing at increases in at least four of the six extremes or impacts assessed, and in many cases this could be an underestimate due a lack of data. This highlights the need for the world to work together on urgent action both on emissions reductions and adaptation.”



The choice of categories proves that this is not a serious attempt to measure extreme weather trends.

1) High temperatures

It is silly to claim that high temperatures = extreme weather. London is a bit warmer than Birmingham, but is the weather there more extreme? Of course not.

And if you want to discuss extreme temperatures, what about the reduction in the frequency of extreme cold days?

2) Heavy rainfall

This is the only category which could be defined as extreme weather. Betts claims that N Europe, in particular, is suffering from increases in heavy rainfall, but there is certainly no evidence of this in the UK. Meanwhile in much of the world, that heavier rainfall has been a godsend, as it has served to relieve drought.

3) River flows.

A rather strange choice! His only example is this:


But as any hydrological expert will tell you, the real problem on the Colorado has been increased water offtake. For decades demand for water has exceeded supply, with the inevitable result.

What we also know is that long term precipitation trends in the Colorado River Basin are not declining:


Regional Time Series | Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) (

4) Agricultural drought

This definition of drought attempts to measure soil moisture deficits, so is inevitably based on computer models rather than real world measurements. When we look at meteorological droughts, which are based on actual precipitation data, we see that globally droughts have actually declined in most of the world, as rainfall has increased.

5) Fire Weather

This is another made up category. Real world data shows us that wildfire acreage has declined over the last century, not increased. Recent wildfires in the western US and Australia are due to poor forest management, and not climate.

6) Loss of ice mass from glaciers

This is probably the silliest category of the lot!

Glaciers have been steadily melting since the end of the Little Ice Age, just as they were expanding in previous centuries. I know of nobody who would call this extreme weather, though those who lived near rapidly expanding glaciers during the Little Ice Age would certainly have called that extreme.

The simple reality is that in overall, global terms, extreme weather has not been increasing, something even the IPCC has reluctantly had to accept. The frequency and severity of hurricanes, floods and droughts are still within the bands of historical variability.

But the Met Office has its agenda to peddle, so has decided to ignore the actual data, and invent its own story.

The timing of this report, along with Richard Betts’ statement below, prove that the real purpose was a crude attempt to influence COP27:

“Nearly all regions are suffering multiple impacts, including many in the Global South with the least historical responsibility for climate change. “

  1. Paul permalink
    November 14, 2022 12:31 pm

    Appalling and totally unsurprising. But does no one call this long since flawed organisation to account?

  2. 2hmp permalink
    November 14, 2022 12:42 pm

    I have by chance been watching daily temperatures and one location, Kew Gardens, always seems to be an estimate and guess what – it is usually one of the highest UK temperatures

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      November 14, 2022 12:57 pm

      What do you mean estimate?
      Kew is one of the hotter UK sites and holds/posts records from time to time, obviously estimates will never be logged as records.

      • Andrew Harding permalink
        November 14, 2022 2:21 pm

        They probably measured the Kew Gardens’ temperature in a tropical plant greenhouse.

      • 2hmp permalink
        November 14, 2022 2:39 pm

        There is an asterisk against the number noting an estimate.

  3. Ben Vorlich permalink
    November 14, 2022 12:44 pm

    Aren’t increasing Heavy Rainfall and increasing Droughts of any sort mutually exclusive?

    • Chris Phillips permalink
      November 14, 2022 5:12 pm

      I think they are mutually exclusive. The eco-zeolots always claim that the hotter air caused by climate change means it holds more water vapour which, if the air was really hotter, would be true. But then they go on to claim that this is what causes heavy rainfall. But if the air is hotter and holds more water vapour, why is it falling as rain?

      • Up2snuff permalink
        November 14, 2022 5:59 pm

        The most wonderful news item was carried by the BBC Radio 4 Today Programme back in 1997, 1998 or 1999. It was a bit of ‘churnalism’ where a Press Release is repeated as ‘news’. If I remember correctly, it was from Friends of the Earth.

        It was something to the effect ‘that Man-made Global Warming will cause widespread droughts and will cause places like Venice to dry out. It was on the 6 a.m. News, repeated at 6.30 in the ‘Bulletin’ and again in the 7 a.m. News. I listened especially at 8 a.m. to see if it was repeated then.

        It was not. The telephone switchboard at the BBC must have been quite busy that morning!

    • Peter Yarnall permalink
      November 15, 2022 12:17 pm

      A bit like when I was in France for my summer holiday in August this year?
      I got a “Powder Alert” (new SNOW report) from Val Thorens on the same day the temperature in Bordeaux reached 41C (105F).
      I believe we call it weather!

  4. HotScot permalink
    November 14, 2022 12:45 pm

    Are all Bett’s off then? 🤣

    • john cheshire permalink
      November 14, 2022 1:08 pm

      You beat me to it.
      I was going to say that where the met office is concerned, all Betts are off.

      • HotScot permalink
        November 14, 2022 7:42 pm


  5. Up2snuff permalink
    November 14, 2022 12:47 pm

    The Met Office via BBC Radio 4 have been making some claims about extremely warm temperatures in November, especially the night-time temperatures. Most peculiarly, they just do not seem to be in accord with my GCH thermostat at 5.30 p.m. in the morning. Strange, that.

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      November 14, 2022 12:59 pm

      The record claims are accurate, you can argue about their lack of real significance in the scheme of things, but you cannot dispute the exceptional warmth recently and for the whole of the calender year to date.

      • Andrew Harding permalink
        November 14, 2022 2:28 pm

        The Earth is currently in an Inter-Glacial phase, so warming is to be expected. It most certainly though is not created by a gas that has increased from 0.03% to 0.042%, that is a thermodynamic impossibility.

      • Phoenix44 permalink
        November 14, 2022 5:07 pm

        Exceptional? Hardly. Its happened before. And we know the cause is a weather phenomenon. And it’s been actually exceptionally cold in other places with record amounts of snow for November already – which just shows its heat distribution, not climate change. For example:

      • Up2snuff permalink
        November 14, 2022 6:03 pm

        MrGN, wild MetOffice claims cannot beat a thermostat switch which has been consistent over many years.

      • November 14, 2022 6:30 pm

        Yep, the current warm times are exceptional, the current warm times is the coldest warm time in the last ten thousand years, according to Greenland Ice Core Records, much colder than the Medival warm time which was the second coldest warm time in the the thousand years, and that was colder than the Roman Warm time which was the third coldest time in the last ten thousand years. Yes the current warm time is exceptional, it is still colder than most of the temperatures for ten thousand years.

      • MrGrimNasty permalink
        November 14, 2022 8:34 pm

        Gauging the weather of the UK against one man’s thermostat setting is as unscientific as modern climate science.
        It’s the warmest year by a large margin in the entire CET mean, if people can’t accept that as exceptional, what’s the point in trying to have a serious discussion?
        Come on, it’s fine being skeptical, but keep it credible.

      • Ben Vorlich permalink
        November 15, 2022 10:21 am

        The East Midlands ITV weatherman Des said last night something along the lines of “Last Night’s (Sunday-Monday) temperature was the highest temperature at the latest in November, eight days later than the previous record.”
        I took that as nothing to worry about then.

        I’ve noticed that instead of saying X degrees above average it has become “X degrees above where they should be”. This sends my blood pressure way above where it should be

      • Dave Andrews permalink
        November 15, 2022 4:31 pm

        Mike Hulme has this to say about 2022’s summer CET tem.

        For summer as a whole (June, July August) CET is 7th hottest in 364 years of measurements with a mean temperature of 17.2 degrees C. In recent years the 2018 summer was marginally hotter but the standout summer was 1976 at 17.8 degrees C.

        In the context of the last few centuries the summer in Central England/ England and Wales was hot and dry. But it was not exceptionally so. The summers of 1976 and 1995 were both substantially hotter and drier.

  6. Mal permalink
    November 14, 2022 12:52 pm

    Added to which Paul, their online weather forecast is very unreliable. I get a far more accurate forecast from DarkSky.

    • Up2snuff permalink
      November 14, 2022 6:07 pm

      Mal, the on-line BBC forecast is not supplied by the Met Office. It is now supplied by Meteo Group and, in my experience for a small corner of south-east England, I reckon it is about 85 to 90% accurate.

  7. MrGrimNasty permalink
    November 14, 2022 1:02 pm

    This is quite amazing even by BBC standards.

  8. Broadlands permalink
    November 14, 2022 1:12 pm

    “This highlights the need for the world to work together on urgent action both on emissions reductions and adaptation.”

    Emission reductions take no CO2 out of the atmosphere but makes adaptations to extreme weather even harder simply because those urgent reductions lower the availability of the very fuels needed for the transportation required. No transition to renewables and electric transportation is possible without gasoline, diesel and biofuels. A little urgent reality might help.

  9. Brian Smith permalink
    November 14, 2022 1:15 pm

    The Met Office is a Trading Fund Agency owned by the Department for Business Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS). As such the Nolan Principles probably apply to the Secretary of State for the department – currently the Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP – and his ministerial team. Five of these 7 principles: Selflessness. Holders of public office should act solely in terms of the public interest.
    Integrity. Holders of public office must avoid placing themselves under any obligation to people or organisations that might try inappropriately to influence their work. They should not act or take decisions in order to gain financial or other material benefits for themselves, their family, or their friends. They must declare and resolve any interests and relationships.
    Objectivity. Holders of public office must act and take decisions impartially, fairly and on merit, using the best evidence and without discrimination or bias.
    Openness. Holders of public office should act and take decisions in an open and transparent manner. Information should not be withheld from the public unless there are clear and lawful reasons for doing so.
    Honesty. Holders of public office should be truthful. – would appear to be being broken on a regular basis by the Met Office and Grant Shapps should be looking to sort these transgressions out if he is not to be held in beach of the Nolan Principles and the Ministerial Code of which they are a substantive part.

    • November 15, 2022 11:39 am

      Every part of government fails the Nolan Principles as they are always working against the population. They have created all the problems we face and seek to punish us with their solutions to their problems.

    • dennisambler permalink
      November 15, 2022 5:11 pm

      Met Office has got worse since coming under BEIS. They now have to advance the agenda for them. You can’t expect much else when BEIS had XR co-founder Gail Bradbrook as a “witness” in 2019 to advise how much faster the UK could get to Net Zero.

  10. Roger permalink
    November 14, 2022 1:48 pm

    I would point out that Florida and California have very similar climates but Florida does NOT have the wild fires that California has in spite of being the Lightning Capital of USA

    California wild fires are probably caused by the rules established there about maintaining forests – for example they do not not trim brushwood which is kindling for wild fires

  11. Harry Passfield permalink
    November 14, 2022 2:12 pm

    Paul, when I read what Betts says I can’t help but imagine a scenario where he is Black Adder and Baldrick one of his MO ‘scientists’. As the series was placed in many different periods my imagination has them placed towards the end of the MWP – and they are trying to explain to the King (Tudors?) that the world is about to end unless people stop cooking on open fires. The curtain falls as the scenes move to the LIA and BA and Baldrick face the chopping block for getting it wrong.
    Shame that there is no comeuppance for those who get it wrong today – mainly because they always have such long lead-times to their runic projections.

  12. Andrew Harding permalink
    November 14, 2022 2:19 pm

    This is the Met Office that didn’t get its contract to provide weather forecasts for the BBC renewed; why? Because the MO believing their own hype, factored in climate change into their computerised forecasts and since this was a societal manipulation and not a scientific fact, their forecasts were wrong.

    The fact that the rate at which CO2 was entering the atmosphere during the Pandemic Lockdown, that was worldwide, was unchanged proves that mankind is not responsible. Before anyone says that it can take several years for any measurable CO2 to reach the atmosphere, I would agree if we were talking about one geographic source, but not when there are billions of sources spread all over the world.

    To that we can add basic thermodynamics, an increase in a GHG from 0.03% to 0.042% which is almost 50% still leaves 99.958% of Earth’s atmosphere that is not a GHG.

  13. Gamecock permalink
    November 14, 2022 2:43 pm

    “For many years, the UK, under its various guises, was respected as an honest, dependable public service of high integrity.”

    Fixed it.

    US government used to be respectable, too.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      November 14, 2022 5:11 pm

      When was that? Clinton? Nixon? LBJ? Watergate, Iran-Contra, Vietnam, Bay of Pigs? Governments have never been anything other than liars, charlatans, elitist, chances and the power hungry.

      • Gamecock permalink
        November 14, 2022 10:28 pm

        I liked Ike.

        JFK was dragged into BoP; he didn’t initiate it. He made some mistakes, like Berlin Wall, but, overall, he was good.

        You left Carter off. He is just stupid. Billy was probably smarter.

        Ronald Reagan was great. So was Trump.

        Clinton did some bad things, but at least he was still an American at heart, not anti-American like his wife and Obama.

        Biden doesn’t know what day it is.

        The U.S. government started going bad in the 1960s. They passed a seat belt law. That was the beginning of the decline. People thought, okay, that seems like a good idea. What they didn’t think was, does government have the authority to do that? The flood gates were open, and the regulatory state exploded, to where we now have 615 agencies telling us how to live.

        Vastly more than Nazi Germany. The U.S. is clearly, obviously, undebatably, fascist. Strong, autocratic central control of a private economy.

  14. Douglas Brodie permalink
    November 14, 2022 2:51 pm

    Met Office propagandist Richard Betts has even been awarded an MBE for “services to understanding climate change”,

    • November 14, 2022 3:25 pm

      Richard Betts had no integrity back in the days when he used to comment regularly at the Bishophill blog.

  15. Phoenix44 permalink
    November 14, 2022 5:13 pm

    The MO has sunk to a new low. These are simply made-up categories designed to produce the answers they want. The notion Europe is somehow suffering in any way from these supposed calamities is preposterous.

  16. November 14, 2022 6:15 pm

    All their smoke and mirrors propaganda can’t disguise the non-disappearance of Arctic summer sea ice, that they were so fond of predicting after the lows of the early 2000s. What went wrong Bettsy?

  17. November 14, 2022 6:20 pm

    Read this, if you can without throwing up. The MO shares the bottom of the barrel with some parts of NASA. I put the link in as text instead of as a link, copy and paste. unless the site changes it.

    This is pure alarmist consensus politics, nothing to do with any kind of science.
    Every section has a specific announcement about some frighting factor.

  18. W Flood permalink
    November 14, 2022 7:09 pm

    How strange that people’s minds have become possessed by climate change.

  19. paul weldon permalink
    November 14, 2022 9:20 pm

    My country of residence, Latvia, has according to the graph, all of the 6 categories mentioned in the study. Except we have had none of them this year.
    ‘Extreme high temperatures’ No, Latvia does not have extremely high temperatures. When we are lucky we have a few hot days in the summer and a few mild days in the winter.
    ‘Heavy rainfall’ No, none this year, so no idea where they got that from.
    ‘River flows’ A bit low this year, but certainly nothing out of the ordinary.
    ‘Agricultural drought’ This year a dryer summer, but the dryness continued into August/September so the harvest itself was good, the farmers relieved that with the high energy prices, the corn did not need drying before storage.
    ‘Fire weather’ Our worst time is in the late winter/early spring when the cold dry air from the East and with strong winds dries out the dead grass and make sit highly combustible. Mild winters recently have been a godsend as well as saving on heating costs.
    ‘Loss of ice mass from glaciers.’ Sorry, but we do not have any glaciers! They disappeared after the last glacial.

    Perhaps the met office need to come and have a look for themselves, or refer to their own weather forecasts for our area which are not that bad!

    • Alex Deere permalink
      November 15, 2022 3:00 pm

      Is not as if this hasn’t happened before. Recent river level drops in Central Europe have uncovered drought markers! Not that unprecedented, really.

  20. November 14, 2022 9:30 pm

    It’s sad, what’s happened to the Met Office. The Royal Meteorological Society published a paper in 2001 called ‘Meteorlogical Services Leading to D-Day’. It’s a fascinating read, and reveals the serious disagreements that were had about the forecast. James Stagg was responsible for pulling the British and American forecasts together and making the presentations to Eisenhower. As we know, the invasion was launched on June 6th in a narrow window in the weather that the Germans had failed to see coming. The report includes this paragraph:

    If Eisenhower had decided not to seize the chance offered for invasion on 6 June, the next dates acceptable from the tidal point of view would have been a fortnight later on 19 or 20 June. As it turned out, the weather during the period 19 to 22 June would have been quite disastrous. The sudden and protracted storm that then occurred was the one that caused havoc on the beaches and wrecked one of the Mulberry Harbours. Not surprisingly, Eisenhower’s note to Stagg acknowledging the great help he and his fellow meteorologists had rendered included the short sentence “I thank the gods of war that we went when we did”. The storms of June 1944 were without question abnormal in their severity; the whole summer and autumn period was poor, apart from a brief fine spell during the first half of August that provided the only quiet weather between May and quite late in the year.

    The last sentence is telling. In 2001 at least some of the UK’s meteorologists knew that unusual (a.k.a. ‘extreme’ in modern parlance) weather has happened before. Professor Betts has a long way to go before meeting the standards of the past.

  21. Stuart Hamish permalink
    November 15, 2022 1:25 am

    ” A new analysis by the Met Office – which builds on the work by the ….[IPCC ] and other sources – has looked at six types of extreme event and [ human caused in the mind of Mr Betts ] climate change impact and tried to assess overlapping trends across the globe ”

    Concerning ‘river flows ” the illustrious Mr Betts and the Met Office analysis cite only Colorado River flows [ if Pauls review is accurate ] as an example of ‘overlapping trends across different regions of the globe ” thus contradicting the ambitious wording of the assessment and confirming the inherent dishonesty of what passes for the Met Office ‘analysis ” You let Betts and the abysmal Met Office off lightly Paul …. You see according to the IPCC s latest findings on the attribution of climate extremes ” there is low confidence in the human influence on the changes in high river flows on the global scale ” Low confidence translates to no persuasive evidence . So why did Professor Betts and the Met Office include river flows in their studys lexicon of climate impacts when the IPCC is doubtful of anthropogenic influence on river flows on a global scale ? Was the constrained citation of Colorado River flows a small target strategy hoping no one would notice the bigger picture and the IPCC assessment ?. Who would be so cynical as to believe that ?…The Met Office excuse for an ‘analysis ‘ has not built on the work of the IPCC at all but instead has misrepresented the IPCC’s core conclusive findings on river flows

    Met Office scientist Peter Thornes lament in the Climategate email trove is as true as it ever was : ” the science is being manipulated to put a political spin on it ” This document has just reaffirmed what sensible intelligent skeptics have always known

  22. Alex Deere permalink
    November 15, 2022 2:58 pm

    Just eyeballing the Colorado River chart, I think there may be a downward trend. If we were to take a 4 datum point roll, I think we would see a gradual decrease until two thirds of the chart, at which point it is likely to increase a bit. Having the actual data available would enable a trend chart to be produced.

  23. avro607 permalink
    November 15, 2022 7:54 pm

    A book is available:There Is No Climate Crisis by David Craig. 2021.
    Excellent.Dry riverbeds of major rivers abound,heatstroke and dead fish all over.
    We aint seen nothing yet!!!!

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