Met Office Latest Extreme Weather Claims

By Paul Homewood

 

 

For many years, the UK Met Office, under its various guises, was respected as an honest, dependable public service of high integrity. Originally formed in 1854 by Robert Fitzroy, of HMS Beagle fame, it went on to produce the world’s first shipping forecast, the first public weather forecast, and world leading advances in the science of weather forecasting.

Sadly, while there are still many there who are continuing these traditions, the Met Office has been taken over at the top by climate cultists, who are more interested in pushing their agenda than public service.

Even by their now low standards, their latest attempt to sell the climate scare truly scrapes the bottom of the barrel:

 

 

 

  

Over the last decade the world has witnessed many extreme weather events including record-breaking temperatures this summer in England and devastating wildfires in Australia in 2019 and 2020.

Climate scientists have been beginning to assess which regions are already affected by multiple increases in extreme weather events and other climate change impacts.

A new analysis by the Met Office – which builds on work by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other sources – has looked at six types of extreme event and climate change impact and tried to assess overlapping trends across different regions of the world.

The trend data has been collated into a series of seven maps: one each for the six types of climate extreme or impact; and a composite map showing the number of cumulative extreme events and change impact for each region.

Examples of impactful extreme events attributed to human-caused climate change have also been included, with statistics on losses of human lives and biodiversity, and economic damages.

 

 

Prof Richard Betts MBE, who is Head of Climate Impacts Research at the Met Office and University of Exeter, led the study. He said: “It is clear from our analysis that all regions of the world are experiencing increases in extreme weather or other impacts of climate change, and these are costing lives and causing widespread environmental and economic damage.”

The six categories covered in the study are:

• Extreme high temperatures
• Heavy rainfall
• River flows
• Agricultural drought
• Fire weather
• Loss of ice mass from glaciers

Professor Betts continued: “Nearly all regions are suffering multiple impacts, including many in the Global South with the least historical responsibility for climate change. All inhabited continents have regions seeing at increases in at least four of the six extremes or impacts assessed, and in many cases this could be an underestimate due a lack of data. This highlights the need for the world to work together on urgent action both on emissions reductions and adaptation.”

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2022/changes-in-weather-extremes-and-climate-impacts-from-the-poles-to-the-tropics

 

 

The choice of categories proves that this is not a serious attempt to measure extreme weather trends.

1) High temperatures

It is silly to claim that high temperatures = extreme weather. London is a bit warmer than Birmingham, but is the weather there more extreme? Of course not.

And if you want to discuss extreme temperatures, what about the reduction in the frequency of extreme cold days?

2) Heavy rainfall

This is the only category which could be defined as extreme weather. Betts claims that N Europe, in particular, is suffering from increases in heavy rainfall, but there is certainly no evidence of this in the UK. Meanwhile in much of the world, that heavier rainfall has been a godsend, as it has served to relieve drought.

3) River flows.

A rather strange choice! His only example is this:

But as any hydrological expert will tell you, the real problem on the Colorado has been increased water offtake. For decades demand for water has exceeded supply, with the inevitable result.

What we also know is that long term precipitation trends in the Colorado River Basin are not declining:

Regional Time Series | Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) (noaa.gov)

4) Agricultural drought

This definition of drought attempts to measure soil moisture deficits, so is inevitably based on computer models rather than real world measurements. When we look at meteorological droughts, which are based on actual precipitation data, we see that globally droughts have actually declined in most of the world, as rainfall has increased.

5) Fire Weather

This is another made up category. Real world data shows us that wildfire acreage has declined over the last century, not increased. Recent wildfires in the western US and Australia are due to poor forest management, and not climate.

6) Loss of ice mass from glaciers

This is probably the silliest category of the lot!

Glaciers have been steadily melting since the end of the Little Ice Age, just as they were expanding in previous centuries. I know of nobody who would call this extreme weather, though those who lived near rapidly expanding glaciers during the Little Ice Age would certainly have called that extreme.

The simple reality is that in overall, global terms, extreme weather has not been increasing, something even the IPCC has reluctantly had to accept. The frequency and severity of hurricanes, floods and droughts are still within the bands of historical variability.

But the Met Office has its agenda to peddle, so has decided to ignore the actual data, and invent its own story.

The timing of this report, along with Richard Betts’ statement below, prove that the real purpose was a crude attempt to influence COP27:

“Nearly all regions are suffering multiple impacts, including many in the Global South with the least historical responsibility for climate change. “