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UK Autumn 2022–Mild and Wet, But Certainly Not “Extreme”

December 3, 2022
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By Paul Homewood

More propaganda from the BBC.

A “chain of significant meteorological events”? They make it sound we are going through some sort of climate apocalypse.

 

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You might have noticed a chill in the air since we entered the winter season at the start of December, but autumn 2022 has been confirmed officially as one of the warmest we have had in the UK.

November 2022 itself ended up 1.8C above average, which has made it the third warmest on record, behind only 2006 and 2011, according to the latest statistics from the Met Office.

It was also wetter than average across the UK in November, with some areas such as south-east England and eastern Scotland seeing exceptional amounts of rain…

Rainfall record provisionally broken

It was wetter than average for all four nations this autumn and it was the wettest one for the UK as a whole since 2000. That year brought episodes of damaging gales and flooding.

Parts of southern England and north-east Scotland had more than double the average rain fall they would expect. Shoreham Airport in West Sussex, Charlwood in Surrey, and Aboyne and Inverbervie in Aberdeenshire have all had their wettest November on record.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/63794630

 

The BBC is confusing weather with climate.

As the BBC article itself admits, the mild weather in November was brought by a persistence of south-westerly winds. It was a similar story in September and October. And going back further the spring and summer were warm because of a preponderance of sunny weather.

None of this has anything to do with climate, it is simply weather.

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And as the Met Office data shows, this autumn was nowhere near as mild as 2006 and 2011, so we are hardly in unprecedented territory:

I think most people would be much more alarmed if we had experienced the sort of cold autumns seen regularly in the past.

But I was particularly drawn to the claim of a rainfall record. And note the comparison with 2000, which has been deliberately made to make this autumn sound much wetter than it really was.

In reality this autumn  was only the 13th wettest since 1836, the sort of weather which comes along every few years. The only reason we have to go back to 2000 to find a wetter one is the lack of wet autumns since, not that this year’s was unusually wet:

To put this autumn in the same bracket as 2000 is fraudulent.

And neither were any of this autumn’s months particularly wet, with none appearing in the list of the top 10 wettest:

 

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The BBC also mention SE England as “seeing exceptional amounts of rain”. This is another BBC lie.

The autumn there was only the 9th wettest, and nowhere near as wet as 1841, 1852, 1960 and 2000.

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No doubt the BBC/Met Office will try to claim that the sharp transition from a dry summer to a wet autumn is somehow evidence of how unpredictable and extreme our weather is becoming. If they do they will be spouting BS.

Consider the fact that not only was the summer of 1976 was drier than this summer, the autumn of 1976 was also wetter than this year’s.

The bottom line is that this autumn was mild and wetter than average. But it was certainly not extreme.

There was no flooding of note, no major storms. In short it has been a pleasant autumn, with weather that we have often had in the past.

UPDATE

The graph of the top 10 wet months has been replaced due to my cock up!

25 Comments
  1. catweazle666 permalink
    December 3, 2022 7:28 pm

    “The BBC is confusing weather with climate.”

    Correction: “The BBC is deliberately confusing weather with climate.

  2. tomo permalink
    December 3, 2022 7:30 pm

    In the feeble minds of the cubicle chimps that churn content at Broadcasting House (or Salford etc.) – whatever the weather, the conclusion to be drawn are is alway primarily slaved to the agenda – sod veracity, balance or common sense.

    If the wind drops below what’s required to turn the windmills for several days – it’s ‘coz climate change, snow=climate change, no snow=climate change and so on.

    The BBC deserves to be shuttered – if they can’t report without getting the facts straight and providing context they can learn to code.

  3. Tim Spence permalink
    December 3, 2022 7:36 pm

    A mild wet Autumn, that’s never happened before lol

    • Tim Gettins permalink
      December 4, 2022 1:01 am

      “Season of mists and mellow fruitfulness…” September 1819
      John Keats is a weatherman..

      • Tim Gettins permalink
        December 4, 2022 1:04 am

        “Season of mists and mellow fruitfulness…” September 1819
        John Keats is a weatherman…
        …. unlike Harry Bin..

  4. Harry Passfield permalink
    December 3, 2022 8:30 pm

    My all time quote from the blob this year has to be when BBC’s Harrabin reported that ‘climate change was affecting the weather’. That has to be up there with quotes of the year.

  5. MrGrimNasty permalink
    December 3, 2022 8:52 pm

    Locally we did have record rain for November and plenty of flooding, although not massively bad. Some minor roads still have stretches of water and small parts of crop fields are still flooded. We had about 9″ of rain but in a normally fairly dry area of the country. You can see the localised deep blue on the MO maps in the SE.

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      December 3, 2022 8:56 pm

      That was 250% of average rain and not a single air frost which is exceptional.
      https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2022/very-mild-autumn-keeps-2022-on-track-to-be-the-warmest-year-on-record

      • Phoenix44 permalink
        December 4, 2022 9:37 am

        Average schmaverage. What’s the 2SD distribution? And “November” – rain rarely falls continuously so a day or two at either end of a month can create a record out of a human construct. And I’m betting rain and no frosts are highly correlated, not two independent variables.

      • David permalink
        December 4, 2022 10:56 am

        I , South Oxfordshire, did have an air frost on 1 Dec.

      • MrGrimNasty permalink
        December 4, 2022 3:03 pm

        Phnx, I can assure you it rained relentlessly day after day, it was not one stormy day. As I also said it was an all time record, off the chart, for my local station in over 100 years.

        Yes, we also had a slight air frost at the start of December, that is not Autumn. Keep in mind I’m in a frost hollow and have recorded -6C and lower as early as mid October.

        It has been an exceptional year, bound to be the warmest in the entire nigh on 400 year CET mean. There is rational skepticism, but refusing to accept reality is just silly.

  6. M Fraser permalink
    December 3, 2022 9:40 pm

    Hardly any rain in Northumberland this Autumn!

  7. Tim Gettins permalink
    December 4, 2022 1:05 am

    “Season of mists and mellow fruitfulness…” September 1819
    John Keats is a weatherman…
    …. unlike Harry Bin..

  8. Mark Hodgson permalink
    December 4, 2022 8:33 am

    A good debunk, Paul, but I would take issue with one thing you say, namely that there has been no flooding of note – there has been, in Deeside in eastern Scotland.

  9. ancientpopeye permalink
    December 4, 2022 9:05 am

    Keep at it Paul they may accept it one day but don’t hold your breath. Throughout my long life I’ve noticed that, whether it be floods or droughts, mother nature has a way of evening things out, no fuss, no panic, just natural phenomena.

  10. December 4, 2022 9:30 am

    From the post: As the BBC article itself admits, the mild weather in November was brought by a persistence of south-westerly winds.

    La Niña has been shifting the weather patterns, pushing warmer weather systems from the Azores region towards western Europe. The BBC itself said:

    Scientists are generally less certain on how La Niña influences the UK’s weather patterns but the Met Office suggests that historically it promotes high pressure to develop in the Atlantic in late autumn and early winter.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/62890361

    • December 4, 2022 9:39 am

      Re, the UK summer heatwave season and the Azores effect…

      John Hammond, meteorologist for Weathertrending said: “The key to this warmer and drier trend across the UK lies in the faraway tropics, and an interaction between the ongoing ‘La Niña’ with a pulse of atmospheric convective energy traversing the tropics from the west.

      “Through a chain reaction, this will affect pressure patterns more widely across the globe and will ultimately help to build high pressure from the Azores across the UK.

      “The upshot will be several days of dry and, often, warm weather.

      “Just how hot it gets will depend on whether the high pressure migrates far enough eastwards to usher air in from a ‘baking’ near-Continent.”

      https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1634669/uk-weather-forecast-july-2022-azores-high-heatwave-britain-hot-sunshine-met-office

    • December 4, 2022 11:32 am

      And yet despite climate science being settled they still can’t explain what drives ENSO and have no ability to predict it.

  11. Phoenix44 permalink
    December 4, 2022 9:33 am

    Not wetter than average? After a drier than average summer?

    At this rate rainfall for the year will be average…

    But if we break it down into little chunks we can show it was “extreme” because it was below or above average for those time-periods.

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      December 4, 2022 3:09 pm

      Yes it was probably one of the fastest drought recoveries since ’76!
      Of course the alarmists will cry extreme, just what is expected, whatever happens.
      Weather, especially UK weather, is always all over the shop, it’s where vastly different air masses collide and battle it out.

  12. dearieme permalink
    December 4, 2022 4:00 pm

    BBC = Blethers & Balderdash Conspiracy.

  13. Mr T permalink
    December 5, 2022 10:34 am

    Would someone with considerably more knowledge than me be able to debunk this piece by Sara Peach? :https: //yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/06/whats-the-carbon-footprint-of-a-wind-turbine/

  14. December 5, 2022 12:04 pm

    Only anecdotal but out walking the fields – late summer planted – the top surface of the tracks by the fields edges is tacky after a period of rain, intermittent sometimes heavy but mostly autumnal, westerly fed rain that has been pretty consistent. We live in and around a valley system and the small streams in the valley bottoms are slightly up on their summer lows but not more so as with drain channels on the sloping field edges. Water table does not appear to be “high” but definitely the ground has some “cut” – but not boggy. Warmer than “usual”; certainly, no frost to speak of around Guy Fawkes as in years past. Blocking of cold fronts not going to last.

    In other words, “Weather”…a word to be a dagger to the heart of the AWG/CC alarmists who should get out more and experience “life” in the countryside….?

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