Will Solar Power Exceed Coal Power in 2027?
By Paul Homewood
h/t Dennis Ambler
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FAKE NEWS ALERT!!
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In just three years’ time, the world will get more power from wind and solar sources than from coal, according to the International Energy Agency.
The IEA predicts in a report that, over the next five years, the world will increase its renewable power capacity by 75% — an amount equivalent to the entire installed power capacity of China today. By 2027, the biggest source of the world’s electricity will be solar power, followed by coal, natural gas and wind, the group said.
"Renewables were already expanding quickly, but the global energy crisis has kicked them into an extraordinary new phase of even faster growth," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.
If you find this news unbelievable, you would be right!
This is what the IEA press release says:
The global energy crisis is driving a sharp acceleration in installations of renewable power, with total capacity growth worldwide set to almost double in the next five years, overtaking coal as the largest source of electricity generation along the way and helping keep alive the possibility of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, the IEA says in a new report.
Energy security concerns caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have motivated countries to increasingly turn to renewables such as solar and wind to reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels, whose prices have spiked dramatically. Global renewable power capacity is now expected to grow by 2 400 gigawatts (GW) over the 2022-2027 period, an amount equal to the entire power capacity of China today, according to Renewables 2022, the latest edition of the IEA’s annual report on the sector.
This massive expected increase is 30% higher than the amount of growth that was forecast just a year ago, highlighting how quickly governments have thrown additional policy weight behind renewables. The report finds that renewables are set to account for over 90% of global electricity expansion over the next five years, overtaking coal to become the largest source of global electricity by early 2025.
“Renewables were already expanding quickly, but the global energy crisis has kicked them into an extraordinary new phase of even faster growth as countries seek to capitalise on their energy security benefits. The world is set to add as much renewable power in the next 5 years as it did in the previous 20 years,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “This is a clear example of how the current energy crisis can be a historic turning point towards a cleaner and more secure energy system. Renewables’ continued acceleration is critical to help keep the door open to limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.”
Utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind are the cheapest options for new electricity generation in a significant majority of countries worldwide. Global solar PV capacity is set to almost triple over the 2022-2027 period, surpassing coal and becoming the largest source of power capacity in the world. The report also forecasts an acceleration of installations of solar panels on residential and commercial rooftops, which help consumers reduce energy bills. Global wind capacity almost doubles in the forecast period, with offshore projects accounting for one-fifth of the growth. Together, wind and solar will account for over 90% of the renewable power capacity that is added over the next five years.
They also talk about solar overtaking coal as the largest source of electricity generation. But later they only say that solar will become the largest source of power capacity in the world. So which is it?
The actual report makes things clearer though:
So the CBS claim that “ By 2027, the biggest source of the world’s electricity will be solar power, followed by coal, natural gas and wind” simply is not true. It is only solar capacity which will be greater.
Given that solar power may only run at 10% of capacity, while coal can run at 80% or more, the comparison is meaningless.
When we look at generation, however, it is a totally different story:
BP Energy Review
Even with the additional solar and wind power forecast, solar will still account for 10% of the world’s power. Fossil fuels, by contrast, will provide 61%. The IEA do not make a forecast for any extra coal power, which there will almost certainly be. So in reality, the share of fossil fuels will be even higher.
The extra solar and wind generation coming on stream will average about 600 TWh a year. However total electricity consumption has been rising at 700 TWh a year, so renewable growth will not even keep up with increasing demand.
Regardless of Fatih Birol’s spin, renewable energy will still be a minor player in five years time. More importantly, there is no evidence that the world can run on intermittent wind and solar power alone.
Comments are closed.
NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
“Which is it?”
It won’t be the headline which is what people will remember and quote (especially politicians)
The installed capacity of wind and solar is meaningless, as those with the slightest understanding already know. Capacity factor will give the average output varying from zero to installed capacity (less inbuilt losses). The same amount of installed capacity from real power stations therefore remains essential, rendering unreliables a complete waste of money and resources.
Precisely what I wanted to say. I find it incredible that an organisation like the IEA can release such an incoherent piece of tosh: which is what it becomes when they don’t make the point about capacity factors.
The IEA, like so many once independent groups, has been taken over by leftie greens. The professional propagandists move into these groups, and once in control promote their mates to join them, so they can never return to objectivity. Nearly every ‘Royal’ Society has been captured this way. Even the National Trust.
‘Solar PV’s installed power capacity is poised to surpass that of coal by 2027,
becoming the largest in the world. Cumulative solar PV capacity almost triples
in our forecast, growing by almost 1 500 GW over the period, exceeding natural
gas by 2026 and coal by 2027. Annual solar PV capacity additions increase every
year for the next five years. Despite current higher investment costs due to
elevated commodity prices, utility-scale solar PV is the least costly option for new
electricity generation in a significant majority of countries worldwide. Distributed
solar PV, such as rooftop solar on buildings, is also set for faster growth as a result
of higher retail electricity prices and growing policy support to help consumers
save money on their energy bills.’
And then the sun goes down.
Was it Klaus Schwab who said, “You will live life intermittently, and you vill be happy.”
Economist Jeff Currie of Goldman Sachs (Global Head of Commodities Research in the Global Investment Research Division) said on CNBC in October 2022 : “Here’s a stat for you, as of January of this year. At the end of last year, overall, fossil fuels represented 81 percent of overall energy consumption. Ten years ago, they were at 82. So though, all of that investment in renewables, you’re talking about 3.8 trillion, let me repeat that $3.8 trillion of investment in renewables moved fossil fuel consumption from 82 to 81 percent, of the overall energy consumption. But you know, given the recent events and what’s happened with the loss of gas and replacing it with coal, that number is likely above 82.” … The net of it is clearly we haven’t made any progress.””
And I say that it will not change in percentage terms but the amount of cash paid by you andme will changeupwards.
Was driving on M3 2022-12-13 and passed an extremely large field stuffed with PV panels. All of which were completely white with snow or frost so not exactly contributing to the winter power needs of the UK.
When there was a debate about solar PV being installed on what would normally be used as farm land we were told that the land could be continued to be grazed. Anyone ever seen livestock in the same field as PV panels?
Yes, this is an amazing lie that I’ve also been subjected to when objecting to covering productive farmland with solar panels. Do the people telling this lie REALLY believe that grass for grazing will continue to grow when the land is shaded from the sun by these panels? They are rather very stupid or are lieing.
I quote
“Around 800,000 solar panels are to be installed in a densely packed east/west configuration. Each row of panels would be 24 metres across with just 30 cm gaps between them to allow water run-off. Each row of these panels would be up to a half a kilometre long with just a 2.5 m space between each row to allow maintenance. The panels will be mounted up to heights of over 4 metres. As a result of the near blanket coverage, the ground will receive practically no sunlight and so effectively die.”
So not a lot of grazing in reality.
https://www.favershameye.co.uk/post/project-fortress-previously-known-as-cleve-hill
And if you read the article the BESS is about as safe as your typical chemical weapon connected to a small fission bomb.
They need to fit electric heaters to clear the snow and frost. Perhaps they could use a diesel generator.
Do we pay these idiots!!!! If we do ,who is more bonkers, they or the Politicians?
Us for paying them?
11:00am, I am currently sat in my house, in Newcastle upon Tyne outside temperature is -3.6C, there isn’t even a breeze let alone wind to generate electricity, there isn’t a cloud in the sky.
So how about solar power?
The Sun rises at 08:12 and sets at 15:27, so that is fairly useless too. Yet another triumph of hope over experience with renewable “energy!”
If I understand this, it means if they close all coal fired power stations then one solar panel will be enough to prove the headline!
This net zero nonsense is making Religion seem sane!
How to destroy trust in your institution:
Tell massive porkies and raise people’s expectations, then go quiet in a few years time when nothing happens.
The thing is, sceptics are immune to this behaviour from over 40 years of it, the ‘innocents’ who are only just being exposed to it believe what they are being told.
But many are catching on quick. IPSOS did a worldwide poll and found nearly 40% of the general public don’t believe mankind is causing the climate to change. In France that’s up 8% from the last time a poll like this was done.
Cue more alarmist lying hysteria, which will just see those doubters numbers grow.
There is only one alarmist tactic, fear, and it’s not working.
The problem is that the proponents of wind and solar only talk about the CAPACITY of these systems. This is the output achieved under ideal conditions. The more realistic measure is the AVERAGE output over tome in real world conditions which is always much lower. And even this doesn’t account for what you do when the end isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining. You always need 100% backup from something 100% reliable – could be nuclear but after politicians’ continual procrastination on this, and their demolishing of coal generating stations, the only option is natural gas.
Average output of solar after dark will always be zero.
Chris, I believe that those who quote Capacity base it on the name-plate output, which is theoretical, not what ideal conditions could provide. Because even in ‘ideal conditions’ panels in the UK would achieve name-plate numbers.
Would NOT achieve!
Sorry.
Where will all of these millions of solar panels be manufactured? Using what energy source?
The main energy source will be the fossil fuels used in the conventional vehicles transporting them to where they will be installed. Goodbye zero and net zero emissions.
China will be laughing all the way to the bank.
The only way solar and wind will surpass coal for energy purposes is when our pathetic government and it’s equally ignorant, but more hapless opposition bans the use of coal for energy production……….of course, by then all factories, offices and hospitals would have closed, the rail network will be idle, cars and buses banned, the populace confined in their own small communities and only the elites will be allowed to use the tiny amounts of electricity available. Oh! And then the wind will stop blowing and the sun hidden by cloud, as now, and even then they will still think that they were right!
The article below is quite interesting in that it demonstrates the usefulness of retaining back up supplies. In this case Oil fired plants built in the “Cold War” era to protect supplies in the event of emergency.
Pity they rather theatrically demolished it for the benefit of a politicians photo shoot. This one and the others would be rather handy right now!
https://web.archive.org/web/20150401144846/https://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/01/us-britain-electricity-oil-kemp-idUSKBN0MR2B520150401
Can’t find anywhere on their website to say “absolute rubbish” – why am I not surprised…
“Renewables’ continued acceleration is critical to help keep the door open to limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.”
Simply impossible since renewable installations require the transportation that only conventional vehicles running on fossil fuels can provide.
And that from the same guy (Fatih Birol) who tells us that we must capture and store 7,600 million metric tons of CO2 by 2050. Who pays these clowns?
Of course because fossil fuel burning and CO2 have near zero effect on the climate there is no problem. We will not warm by 1.5C over the next 30yrs (alas) because the Sun (which drives global warming) is entering a cooling solar minima phase. How will these propagandists spin the completely natural cooling we will soon experience? I guess they’ll claim its getting cooler because we destroyed so many good coal power stations.
Reblogged this on Climate Collections.
Pushing capacity, rather than actual output, has long been the game played by those who (intentionally or otherwise) mislead the public with glowing references to the capacity of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. I discussed it as some length a year ago here:
These are the two most important sentences in the entire article:
Any time “watermelons” (green on the outside, red communism on the inside) on TreeHugger dot com talks about how we’re going to be enjoying a green energy utopia in just a matter of years, I bring up this fact that renewables’ growth is barely keeping up with the increase in global energy demand, to say nothing of reducing emissions from fossil fuels. They always—always—resort to crickets when challenged by facts.
No matter how fervent your religiosity, facts cannot be changed (unlike NOAA global temp datasets.)
And it seems that the Telegraph’s village idiot AEP is at again with nuclear fusion to say that it will be powering the world by the early 2030s following the recent experiment in the USA. If you are not familiar with it or read an article by a standard legacy media moron, for the laser fusion system to output power it needs a ratio above 1 – ie more out than was put in. The ratio for the experiment was 0.03.