Hottest Evah September!!
By Paul Homewood
h/t Ian Magness
Well, they would, wouldn’t they!
The latest of many heat records broken this year is putting the world on course for its hottest year ever, and is a sign of what is to come in future, according to scientists.
Last month was not only the hottest September on record, new data has confirmed, but it was higher by a margin described by stunned scientists as "extraordinary", "huge" and "whopping".
I’ll ignore the ignorance of journalists who think that the world started in the 19thC, during the Little Ice Age. And the fact that a “global average temperature” is a meaningless construct, which assumes you can average completely different things.
According to satellite data, the temperature anomaly last month was 0.24C higher than the previous peak in 2016:
https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
The idea that GHGs can make such a difference in such a short period of time is utterly absurd. But the Sky report does give us a clue:
Piers Forster – the interim chair of the government’s Climate Change Committee but speaking in his capacity as climate change professor at Leeds University – said variations between months each year are usually quite small.
"Therefore, breaking the previous September record by a whopping 0.5C is crazy and shows something really bizarre is going on in the oceans," he said.
Greenhouse gases have been warming not just the atmosphere but also the deep ocean, especially in the Atlantic, added Prof Forster, and now a change in ocean circulation is "causing some of that heat from the deeper ocean to resurface and bite us".
Forster is quite wrong, knowingly I suspect, because it is physically impossible for GHGs to warm the deep ocean. This is because infrared radiation can only penetrate the top few millimeters of the sea.
However, oceans are an enormous heat store, and a change in ocean circulation, as implied by Forster, can have large effects on atmospheric temperatures.
After all, swings from La Nina to El Nino can often increase global temperatures by a full degree, and that is just a result of ocean circulation is a small part of the Pacific.
And that heat is supplied by the sun, not carbon dioxide.
Why then is there no scientific research going on into what is happening in the oceans and why? Is it more convenient just to blame climate change?
There has also been absolutely no mention in any of these reports of the underwater Hunga Tonga volcano, which erupted in January last year, blasting an enormous plume of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere.
Water vapour, as we know, is by far the most powerful GHG, responsible for about half of the Earth’s greenhouse effect. The eruption was so powerful that the plume reached the stratosphere, where it can only very slowly return to the Earth’s surface, unlike water vapour in the troposphere.
For the months after the eruption this greenhouse effect was countered by the cooling effect of the ash and aerosols sent aloft. Now that this effect has receded, we are seeing the full greenhouse effect of the plume.
One study last year found that:
This extra water vapor could influence atmospheric chemistry, boosting certain chemical reactions that could temporarily worsen depletion of the ozone layer. It could also influence surface temperatures. Massive volcanic eruptions like Krakatoa and Mount Pinatubo typically cool Earth’s surface by ejecting gases, dust, and ash that reflect sunlight back into space. In contrast, the Tonga volcano didn’t inject large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere, and the huge amounts of water vapor from the eruption may have a small, temporary warming effect, since water vapor traps heat. The effect would dissipate when the extra water vapor cycles out of the stratosphere and would not be enough to noticeably exacerbate climate change effects.
They calculated that the radiative forcing from this plume of water vapour was about two thirds of the CO2 growth between 1996 and 2005.
How much of the recent spike in temperatures is due to Hunga Tonga is debatable.
But what I find remarkable about this, if unsurprising, is how there has been virtually no public discussion of this, or serious scientific research into it. Instead climate scientists seem to want to brush it under the carpet, and blame rising temperatures on “climate change”.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Piers Forster shouldn’t be teaching anywhere. His statements are either grossly ignorant or deliberate lies. Either disqualifies him from teaching.
More importantly, should he be chairing the Climate Change Committee?
I dunno – he is right in the mainstream of edgucayshunol thinking atm..
Piers Foster is another serial liar, a very poor climate “scientist”. But that is the way to progress in academia these days.
I suspect the reason Paul is that if such eruptions are a significant cause of warming then the massive vested interests, who have such influence in the climate scare narrative, would be exposed as fraudulent. That would never do would it.
No doubt it is nigh on impossible to get funding to carry out research that might uncover information a huge number of people would rather be kept secret or unknown. I have hopes that the new Indian solar orbiter will provide some good information given that Indian scientists have not sold their souls to the devil that is global warming activism.
According to BBC Climate Clown Rowatt; ‘September was almost certainly the hottest month for 120,000 years – since before the last ice age’. Alarmists can say anything on the BBC, however absurd, and get away with it.
The BBC must maintain its policy of regressive propaganda, the left are an insatiable mob
Please can we call a spade a spade? The statement wasn’t “absurd”, it was a lie.
It almost certainly was not. Am I alone in finding the lies to be getting much worse?
The ‘alarmism; really is reaching new heights, from the “world is boiling” to “hottest, wettest, windiest….. evah” stories, yet the evidence is that the peasants are not buying it…. cue ever more extreme alarmism.
Where will the Climate scammers go next? How about “Christmas 2023 snowiest on record” or “January 2024 hotter than mid summer” or “Spring heatwave breaks all records”.
I welcome more alarmism as it shows the game is up!
When the head of the UN decends into hysterical global boiling rants, you know at one time, sanatoriums were full of these types – since they’ve closed them, the idiots are free to pester society and even hold high office to do so – The Marxist long march is coming to a cross roads though
H/T Dr. Roy Spencer
Just ignore MSM and free your soul – it’s been captured and just spews out propaganda – of course, it is always equally entertaining to challenge and ridicule them – they know we know they’re shilling deceit, the more people see the deceit, the bigger the push back
Nobody wants to talk about sunshine and disappearing clouds.
https://climate.copernicus.eu/esotc/2022/clouds-and-sunshine-duration
Suffering like Lear:
What they are I know not, but they shall be the terrors of the earth!
No doubt all of the claimed record temperatures will have been taken within urban heat islands. For example, https://climatechangedispatch.com/record-phoenix-warmth-not-reflected-in-surrounding-weather-station-data/
It’s been pretty warm where I am in rural SW France the last six weeks, and very dry too. Interestingly, the nights are now getting quite cold -5 degrees yesterday – even as the days hit close to 30 degrees.
Thanks for the warning. In Burgundy we are still getting low to mid 20s maximum though any sort of a breeze now has an edge to it and in a month’s time tonight’s sunset would almost certainly mean a frost!
Time to brimg in the log basket!
The reason why the nights are so much colder than in the daytime is written into your text – the dry air. Just goes to show that water vapour is by far the most important greenhouse gas. My guess would also be that you are now having still, clear nights.
The UAH satellite data takes measurements from pretty much the whole of the troposphere, so should be relatively uncontaminated by UHI. I’m convinced it’s the most accurate global temperature data set and the massive spike in temperature anomalies over the past 4 months is genuine. The switch from La Nina to El Nino is probably partly responsible, but most of the increase is almost certainly due to Hunga Tonga. How long it will last for and how high the spike will go is anyone’s guess, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a further rise of 0.3-0.5 degrees before the end of the year probably followed by a drop of roughly 1 degree before the end of 2024.
When I was learning project management – soooo many years ago – I was taught to always ask, Why? To the seventh!
So also should climate scientivists: instead of immediately claiming that MM climate change is the villain they should be asking, what other reasons could there be. But they don’t. Upton Sinclair was never so relevant.
“Which means that?….” and “Which means what exactly?”…….two questions that escape being asked in many many strands of “life”…
Thanks Paul, the story by NASA at https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3204/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere/ pretty well describes why and how the Tonga eruption is resulting in “elevated” temperatures, alongside El Nino!
And has Rowlatt, or any other of his clique ever mentioned that? (Rhetorical)
‘It keeps the world on course for its hottest year ever – expected to be 1.4C warmer than before the industrial era.
The new record is just the latest to be shattered this year – with new highs set in June, July and August.
Scientists are pointing the finger primarily at climate change, and warned of worse to come.’
Giving ‘climate change’ the finger.
So just what exactly is this ‘climate change?’
“Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns.” — UN
So the hottest September EVAH was caused by a shift in temperatures.
Circulus in probando.
It really is that dumb. Circular logic par excellence.
Climate science is a bundle of transparent fallacies.
Spot on, GC! But they dare not call it what it is: weather. And if we get 30 years’ of it we can then call it climate.
To detect a change in climate you would need to observe two complete cycles of the 60 to 80 year cyclic patterns of weather events.
IPCC Third Assessment Report 2001
“The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
So we have record months and the annual will also be a record and that’s somehow a different record from the monthly ones? These people are beyond dim.
‘The latest of many heat records broken this year is putting the world on course for its hottest year ever, and is a sign of what is to come in future, according to scientists.’
Oh, yeah, they’re dim. Declaring ‘hottest year ever,’ at the end of the 3rd quarter.
Why wait for an actual record, when you can declare it now!
It’s amazing how confected anomaly-graphs can be manufactured to scare the gullible.
A temperature rising from 288.15k to 289k is not half so worrisome.
Thx, JP. I was thinking about that, but didn’t want to do the maths.
There has also been absolutely no mention in any of these reports of the underwater Hunga Tonga volcano, which erupted in January last year, blasting an enormous plume of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere.
Interestingly, it did get mentioned here: Ozone hole over Antarctica grows to one of the largest on record, scientists say — https://abcnews.go.com/International/ozone-hole-antarctica-grows-largest-record-scientists/story?id=103719972
Of course, they had to find something to blame it on, after claiming they fixed it.
One other thing that is not mentioned by the Met Office or the MSM are the words “an Indian summer”. A bit of good weather in autumn is now climate change, as if we never had Indian summers in the past.
Hi Phillip, todays brainwashing from the Met Office/BBC.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67028073
“A temperature of 25C has only been reached or exceeded in three other years in the past quarter of a century – in 2018, 2011 and 2001.”
So temperature records are now only over 25 years? Pity it was 26.7°C on the 7th October at Southend in 1921 but of course over 100 yearold recordings
cannot possibly count.
Followed by “However, the all-time October record of 29.9C, set on 1 October 2011 in Gravesend, is unlikely to be reached.”
Well that’s because the station was removed 7 years ago as being located next to the cooling fans of the main Thames Pilot Radar relay station (it really was!) was not an acceptable location.
And then, of course,
“Unseasonal warm weather is likely to become more common due to climate change, which is having an increasing impact on all parts of the UK.”
YOU MUST BELIEVE!
And in what way is this unseasonal warmth bad? In SW France it’s very warm and nature appears to be loving it. Butterflies are still around, the wasps and bees are active, weeds and grass keep growing, the whip snakes and lizards are still zipping about. Warm is good.
Also known for centuries as “St Luke’s Summer”, Phillip; his feast day being October 18th. There are several ‘spasms’ through the year when we can expect unseasonal temperatures, named after some meteorologist whose name escapes me. Christmas tends to be another, white Christmasses being an exception.
But Jamaica, according to my sister-in-law who lived there for several years, is about the only place in the world where you can more or less set your clock by a weather event, the daily (more often than not) thunderstorm turning up pretty regularly at 2pm! I imagine there are other similar occurrences elsewhere in the tropics where everything appears to be more predictable than in the temperate latitudes.
But it’s all still only weather!
With a total of 30,531 votes cast in yesterdays Scottish by election, the green party only got 601 votes …..so why are we doing the net-zero and green revolution if there’s no support from the voting public …politicians & the media are the enemy
The ppm of carbon dioxide has not jumped up at all. Although Mauna Loa volcano erupted and they had to move out. The reason the climate change scientists are ignoring Hunga Tonga is simple. It shows that Carbon dioxide is not the reason that temperature is increasing, it is water vapour. They are going to be proven as either incompetent or liars. More likely both.
The UAH satellite record is certainly showing a most rapid rise over the last three months. Whatever the reason, one thing it assuredly is not is CO2, as the miniscule rise in the gas over that period could not conceivably be the cause.
The Hunga-Tonga eruption combined with el Nino does look the most likely explanation.
Particularly as before that it was showing no increase in temperature at all. As before, we get a sudden spike.
We Devon folk seem to be the monopoly here (Devoncamel, devonblueboy, eastdevonoldie and me). I wonder if there is any statistical significance in this?
I wouldn’t say we’re a monopoly, more a reasonably small, but select, minority 🤗
True. We need to be here to counter the nonsense coming from the Met Office.
You have made AMOCkery of them.
I have seldom read such rubbish from a so-called climate scientist. That the ocean at depth has warmer water than at the surface? Obviously oceanography was something that was not included in his studies. Or perhaps the journalist involved in making the report has not understood either, and has not quoted accurately.
But on the other side, Paul states that climate change cannot warm the oceans because I/R radiation only penetrates the oceans a few millimetres. What about ocean mixing? the wind?
What has struck me with the warm North Atlantic this summer is the coupling to high pressure and the associated lack of wind.
What appears to be missing from the proposed causes for the extra global warmth is the effect of the wind on evaporation from the oceans. With lower average wind speeds the oceans will cool less via evaporation.
What also seems to be missing from the climate debate is that average global wind speeds are thought to have been dropping since the 1980s. I wonder if wind speed has been included in the computer programs?
[[Forster is quite wrong, knowingly I suspect, because it is physically impossible for GHGs to warm the deep ocean. This is because infrared radiation can only penetrate the top few millimeters of the sea.]]
Hit the nail on the head. It’s the Sun’s downward visual wavelength radiation that heats the sea, not downward IR. The sea continually cools via black body IR upward radiation, conduction/convection, and evaporation.
The big haha is that no IR from greenhouse gases can heat the Earth’s surface, land or sea, because it’s not an independent source of energy, just delayed and regurgitated surface cooling IR that is at the tail end of the IR cooling curve, meaning that all the real surface heat radiated at light speed to outer space, permanently cooling the surface until more sunlight is received.
Any dinky downward IR will be completely absorbed by the surface because it’s a black body that absorbs all wavelengths, but it just merges into the internal energy distribution and gets emitted along the surface’s black body radiation curve whose peak power wavelength and intensity are dependent only on its instantaneous absolute temperature. It’s no different than a water hose feeding off a water tank and putting out a fire on a building in the distance. Any small backspray can’t make the tank level go higher. The U.N. IPCC octopus is double-counting energy to push its big hoax.
Greenhouse gas back radiation subtracts from downward solar radiation, not adds to it. In other words, long wavelength low energy intensity 15 micron CO2 back radiation was already emitted by the surface as part of its cooling process, and can’t reheat the surface one iota because it just gets recycled and emitted at shorter wavelengths as a dinky contribution to the ongoing total IR cooling emission power.
If the instantaneous IR cooling radiation drained 1 Joule of energy in the first instant, and the CO2 downward IR radiation returned .01 or even .1 Joule in the second instant, the heat capacity of so many degrees C or K per Joule would lower the surface temperature in the first instant, and in the second instant the downward IR would be swamped out with the lower wavelength emissions during the second instant and couldn’t restore the lost temperature one iota, that is, lower the peak power wavelength and increase its intensity to make the temperature higher than before the first instant. Surface temperature just keeps dropping smoothly with the CO2 radiation having no effect on the instantaneous temperature.
Another big haha. If the surface had a notch in its blackbody radiation emission curve at the greenhouse gas absorption/emission wavelength, which would be equivalent to 100% of the energy returned, it wouldn’t have any effect on surface temperature. Only total solar energy absorbed would determine that.
https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-greenhouse-effect-Is-entropy-the-cause-of-the-greenhouse-effect/answer/TL-Winslow
The nonsense is strong in this one.
Do you know the difference between a reasoned scientific reply and a bigoted brain fart that just draws attention to you and your intestinal lining?
Show me the nonsense with specific examples, or STFU. Who cares about you? I care about science.
Well, he might be right!
View this video and decide.
James E. Kamis: Geological Impacts on Climate | Tom Nelson Pod #121
He discusses his view that that geological forces significantly influence, or in some cases, completely control climate. In particular the role of ocean ridge volcanos and climate.
The slides can be downloaded here. Slide 15 is areal surprise!
https://tomn.substack.com/p/geological-impacts-on-climate
I found his views on warming in West Antactica quite convincing; not so sure sbout the rest.
https://environment.leeds.ac.uk/see-research-innovation/dir-record/research-projects/939/centre-for-climate-change-economics-and-policy-phase-2
The ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) brings together some of the world’s leading researchers on climate change economics and policy, from many different disciplines.
The Centre is hosted jointly by the University of Leeds and the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and is chaired by Professor Lord Stern of Brentford. It is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC).
Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy
https://www.cccep.ac.uk/about-us/contact-us/
CCCEP at the University of Leeds School of Earth and Environment
CCCEP at the London School of Economics and Political Science
Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
Media enquiries
Bob Ward, Policy and Communications Director
Had a lad deliver a load of firewood just now. I remarked ‘nice day’ which triggered him to deliver what he’d just heard on the wireless about the Hottest Month Evah etc. Gonna be a difficult decade of disabusememt.
There is a cartoon in the Guardian today about September Anomaly, what to describe it as… gobsmacking bananas, button clenching nutso, pants crappingly bonkers,
about 280 comments all from green loonies although a few had been moderated ie removed. |So I put this on.
Not one mention of the Hunga Tonga Oceanic Volcano that erupted in January 2022, it threw vast quantities of water vapour and ash and aerosols very high 31 miles in fact, the water vapour is still up there, the other more solid aerosols has dropped down.
It is the water vapour that is causing the higher anomaly, after all it is a better greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.
It is impossible for the carbon dioxide model to give this rapid increase, any way carbon dioxide is not showing a peaking.
I am now MODERATED,,,as I tried to reply to the 3 comments on my comment. Here is the situation now tho I aint been deleted yet
It is impossible for the carbon dioxide model to give this rapid increase, any way carbon dioxide is not showing a peaking.
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B1ngoCrepuscule GeoffBe5h ago
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The monthly readings from mauna loa show that CO2 is still increasing at 2.4 ish ppm pa.
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Reason4 GeoffBe4h ago
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Water vapour doesn’t stay in the atmosphere (you’ve heard of precipitation?) being temperature dependant it is a feedback not a cause of warming
Ash and sulphur aerosols from volcanoes are temporary cooling influences
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biggercraig GeoffBe4h ago
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Because this ….
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/did-the-tonga-eruption-cause-this-years-extreme-heat
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biggercraig Show comment
Your comments are currently being pre-moderated (why?)
Please k
Sorry for a messy post with cut and paste, my replies are not getting through, but the original comment is still there. FOR HOW LONG.
IT IS FRIGHTNING HOW FREE SPEECH IS BEING CURTAILED TO SUIT THE GLOBAL WARMING SCAM.