Met’s Supercomputer Predicts Storm (That The Daily Express Forecast Two Days Earlier)

By Paul Homewood

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10408452/Met-Office-supercomputer-mapped-storm-long-before-it-had-formed.html

 

According to the Telegraph:

 

The Met Office’s £30million supercomputer was able to predict the size and path of the St Jude’s Day storm four days before it had formed by using calculations from millions of sites around the world to simulate the weather.

The IBM machine, which is capable of 100 trillion calculations a second, predicted the storm after spotting two areas of turbulent weather over Canada and the United States which met in the western Atlantic forming one large low pressure system.

 

This is all very strange, because Jonathan Powell, of Vantage Weather Services was forecasting the “storm of the century” on Tuesday, 22nd October, which was six days before the storm hit. I was critical at the time, as the Daily Express report was clearly overhyped. Nevertheless, they got the basics right:

 

Jonathan Powell, forecaster for V­antage Weather Services, warned that Britain could be facing the “storm of the century” next week. He said Atlantic low pressure systems lined up to roll in unchecked could trigger more tornadoes around the UK.

He said: “If you thought it was bad now you’ve seen nothing yet. There is more wind and rain this week but on Sunday and into the beginning of next week it is going to hit with full force.

“A flow of Atlantic systems will bring storm-force gusts, torrential downpours and even more tornadoes in the most unexpected places.

“Next Sunday is looking very severe, and all signs are pointing to what could be the storm of the century.

“People should be prepared for some very violent weather. Winds of more than 80mph are very likely, especially in coastal regions, and these have the potential to be quite destructive.”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/438384/Bad-storms-You-ve-seen-nothing-yet-as-90mph-gales-and-rain-are-set-to-lash-Britain

  

 

Indeed, on 21st October, the day before, they were were forecasting severe weather, albeit without a firm date.

 

Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said gusts could hit 80mph in isolated coastal regions with winds reaching 40mph inland.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/438151/Apocalyptic-weather-to-batter-UK-expect-relentless-rainstorms-and-terrifying-winds

  

So what were the Met Office forecasting on 22nd October?

 

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/10/22/daily-express-forecast-storm-of-century-a-week-after-forecasting-huge-freeze/

 

Windy, with a risk of severe gales? Hardly definitive.

It was not till Thursday, 24th October, that the Met actually put out a severe weather warning.

 

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/10/24/uk-storm-warning-update/

 

The Met might have good reasons not to issue formal warnings more than five days in advance. Nevertheless, it is surely stretching matters to claim that their supercomputer forecast this storm four days beforehand, when other forecasters had not only forecast the storm, but had got the timing and path pretty much right at least two days earlier.

 

The Telegraph give a clue to the Met’s boasting at the end of their report.

 

But the Met Office is to get a new £100million forecasting machine in two year’s time after ministers signed off the funding last summer.

 

Perhaps the Met might be better off scrapping their new toy, saving taxpayers £100 million, and instead buy a copy of the Daily Express every day!