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Antarctic Peninsula Stopped Warming 30 Years Ago

May 15, 2015

By Paul Homewood  


antarctica map


We are doubtlessly all aware of claims that the Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest warming parts of the world. The implication is clear, that this is global warming in action.

Yet the story is not quite all that it appears.



Let’s look at the GISS temperature records for Rothera and Faraday, on the west side of the peninsula, and the Argentine stations of Esperanza and Marambio on the east. At all four stations, there was a sharp rise in temperatures between 1980 and 1983, since when temperatures appear to have been fairly stable.

We can also see from the longer records at Faraday and Esperanza that there was a similar jump in the 1960’s.







Since 1983, there have been ups and downs, notably the drop in the early 1990’s associated with the Pinatubo eruption, but clearly temperatures now are no higher than they were in the mid 1980’s.

Indeed, as we see below, the trend since 2000 is flat at Faraday, and falling at Esperanza.  





There is strong evidence to suggest that the temperature increase observed on the Peninsula has nothing to do with “global warming”, but is due to changing wind patterns. We can speculate on the cause of such changes, but essentially we are looking at natural variation which is likely to have happened in previous eras. (For more, see here.)

But the significant point about these temperature trends is that there was a step change, but that since then temperatures have stopped increasing. There is no evidence to suggest that temperatures will increase in future years, and, until we understand better the reasons for the step change, there is a possibility that temperatures will fall back in the future.

  1. Ben Vorlich permalink
    May 15, 2015 4:37 pm

    Perhaps it’s something to do with big oil painting tankers white, halting warming in its tracks.

  2. May 15, 2015 4:44 pm

    ” Temperature records,
    How is temperature measured?
    Not using the principals
    That should always be treasured.
    The temperatures required?
    Politically dictated;
    The halls of good science
    By charlatans infiltrated……”

    From “The One Eyed Politician is King” More: http:///

  3. May 15, 2015 5:07 pm

    It is globaly cooling

  4. May 15, 2015 7:08 pm

    Reblogged this on Johnsono ne'Blog'as.

  5. May 16, 2015 3:40 am

    Step-change -> following random (?) shock -> no reversion to mean -> random walk

  6. Eliza permalink
    May 16, 2015 7:11 am

    This is stuff from GISS. Have you checked that it has not been actually rigged? (like most other SA temp data)

  7. May 16, 2015 1:06 pm

    Reblogged this on Globalcooler's Weblog.

  8. May 16, 2015 4:30 pm

    Thanks, Paul.
    I can’t see any temperature rises in the data you present since the great El Niño of 1998.
    The “pause” seems to be global and ongoing.

  9. Kelvin Vaughan permalink
    May 16, 2015 8:07 pm

    Is that a step change I see in 1988 like there is in a lot of the European station data or am I imagining it?

  10. Bill Illis permalink
    May 17, 2015 1:30 pm

    You can get the official temperature record for most Antarctic stations here. Click on “All” under temperature and it will give the official monthly mean for the relevant station. At the bottom of the monthly temperature webpage for each station, one can get a “text” version which might be easier to work with. Warming in the Antarctic Peninsula peaked in about 1990.


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