Travel Back To Kyoto

By Paul Homewood 

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol#First_commitment_period:_2008.E2.80.9312

 

 

With the climate boondoggle soon to descend on Paris, it is time to cast our minds back to the original Kyoto Treaty, and how things have changed since then.

 

The original Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997, but did not enter into force until 2005, when it was finally ratified by enough states.

Like, I suspect, most of us, I took little notice at the time, so was mildly surprised now to see how unambitious the original targets were:

 

 

  

http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/08_unfccc_kp_ref_manual.pdf

 

 

 

EU countries pledged to reduce emissions by 8% from 1990 levels, by 2008-12. The US, Canada and Japan were committed to slightly lower cuts, while, for some reason, Australia were allowed to increase, and Russia got away with no cut,even though by 1997 emissions had already fallen by a third since 1990 because of the mass shut down of old and obsolete Soviet industry.

There was of course expectation that bigger cutbacks would be made eventually, and it was said that:

 The Kyoto Protocol is a legally binding agreement under which industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2% compared to the year 1990 (but note that, compared to the emissions levels that would be expected by 2010 without the Protocol, this target represents a 29% cut)

 

 

Well let’s see exactly how things have worked out.

 

 

Global emissions of CO2 have risen by 56% since 1990. Annex B emissions have fallen pretty much in line with expectations, dropping 7% by 2014. However, this hides a diverse picture:

 

 

We see that the biggest falls have occurred in Russia and the Ukraine. But, as already noted, all of the decrease in Russia had already occurred by the time the Protocol was adopted in 1997. Since then , emissions in Russia have increased by 7%. Similarly emissions in the Ukraine fell by 54% between 1990 and 1997, though they have carried on falling since.

EU emissions have fallen by 18%, well above the Kyoto commitment, but the rest have basically ignored their commitment.

As the Wiki graphic at the top shows, the US has never ratified the treaty, while Canada has withdrawn. Countries such as Russia and Japan have binding targets in the first period, ie up to 2012, but have not submitted to targets for the second period, which take us up to 2020 and were agreed at Doha in 2012.

 

However the real story is what has been going on outside the Annex B countries, where emissions have climbed by 182%.

 

 

Whereas the ROW produced 34% of global emissions in 1990, they now account for 61%.

 

 

 

Even if Annex B countries totally eliminate all emissions, global emissions would still only be 5% lower than those supposedly planet destroying levels of 1990.

 

Clearly, if there is any substance to such claims, the rest of the world needs not only to ensure that emissions stop increasing now but also reduce by two thirds to get back to 1990 levels.

As we know, the answers are no there is not, and no they won’t, respectively.

 

 

 

All figures are from the BP Energy Review 2015

http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html