BP Energy Outlook 2016
By Paul Homewood
BP published their latest Energy Outlook in February, and it does not appear to have been much reported.
Worth then taking a look at a few of the highlights:
It needs stressing that the assumptions are based on Paris Treaty commitments being followed through, and not on a Business As Usual case.
The key findings are that:
1) Primary energy consumption rises by a third.
2) Fossil fuels still account for 80% of total energy in 2035 (down from 86% in 2014).
3) Gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel, oil also continues to increase, but coal consumption declines as a share.
4) While renewables account for a third of the growth in power generation, they still will still only supply 9% of energy in 2035 (see below).
5) Emissions of CO2 continue to rise.
Growth in population and GDP will continue to drive energy consumption upwards, particularly in Asia.
As mentioned, demand for all fossil fuels will continue to increase in absolute terms, whilst renewables remain at a low level. Although the growth in coal falls sharply, actual consumption is still expected to increase.
And although the annual growth rate of CO2 emissions is expected to fall to 0.9%, they will still be 20% higher than now in 2035. (This is consistent with the declaration made in the Paris Treaty that, despite INDCs, GHG emissions would rise to 55Gt by 2030).
BP’s answer to this “problem” is a “meaningful” global price fir carbon! Or, put another way, make energy so expensive that nobody can afford to use it.
The full BP Outlook is here: