Skip to content

Tornado Stats For 2016–Another Quiet Year

June 23, 2017

By Paul Homewood

 

NOAA have been very slow in releasing the final tornado data for 2016, but it is finally out now.

As the provisional indicated at the time, last year was another very quiet year for tornadoes, and continued the pattern of a lower level compared to the 1970s.

 

image

   http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data

Perhaps even more marked is the decline in the number of really strong tornadoes.

 

image

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data

 

There were no EF-5 events (the strongest category) at all last year, the third year in succession for that. There were also only two EF-4s, which normally average eight a year.

You would guess none of this from NOAA’s State of the Climate Report, which fraudulently includes the weakest EF-0 tornadoes.

 

tornado-counts-0112-2016

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tornadoes/201613

Even though their own website clearly states:

Improved tornado observation practices have led to an increase in the number of reported weaker tornadoes, and in recent years EF-0 tornadoes have become more prevelant in the total number of reported tornadoes. In addition, even today many smaller tornadoes still may go undocumented in places with low populations or inconsistent communication facilities.

With increased National Doppler radar coverage, increasing population, and greater attention to tornado reporting, there has been an increase in the number of tornado reports over the past several decades. This can create a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency. To better understand the variability and trend in tornado frequency in the United States, the total number of EF-1 and stronger, as well as strong to violent tornadoes (EF-3 to EF-5 category on the Enhanced Fujita scale) can be analyzed. These tornadoes would have likely been reported even during the decades before Doppler radar use became widespread and practices resulted in increasing tornado reports.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology/trends

 

 

So far this year, provisional tornado numbers have been higher than recent averages, but not significantly so. Again there have been no EF-5 events yet.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/torngraph-big.png

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data

Advertisements
11 Comments
  1. Jack Broughton permalink
    June 23, 2017 1:54 pm

    Statisticians and statistics abusers have a lot to answer for. The problem of abuse of statistics is exacerbated by the fantastic software packages (like Excel) with all sorts of advanced statistical features. Anyone can generate poly-fits or log-fits to anything easily.

    The trend-lines on the first two graphs are no doubt the best regression fit: however, what they show more conclusively is that there is a mean value with a high variance: that is nature is not a constant force. The probability that the regression curve is correct is very low: I certainly would not place a bet that there will be no EF-3 tornadoes by 2070, as the second graph’s regression line suggests.

    About 40 years ago Professor Peter Rowe of UCL produced a graph with a convincing logarithmic curve fit that had people congratulating him on the work, he then revealed that it was a set of random numbers to show how easily people were take in by statistics.

    AGW = Mathematical model abuse + data analysis abuse coupled with a desire to have a belief to follow.

  2. June 23, 2017 2:19 pm

    2017 is going to be just like 2016.

    The tornado season here in Tornado Alley is winding down, and we have had very few strong tornadoes. Another mild year, in this “hottest year evah!, where according to the CAGW promoters we are supposed to be having more and bigger tornadoes, but instead, we have just the opposite.

    The CAGW promoters seem to have miscalculated. Their predictions do not match reality.

  3. June 23, 2017 2:41 pm

    Dang!

  4. June 23, 2017 3:22 pm

    To summarize:
    Weak tornado year
    Sea-level rise modest, rate virtually unchanged. (Google “Where The Boys Are” opening credits…Note year of movie; note location of shoreline.)
    Arctic Ice and Antarctic ice just fine; ditto polar bears – they’re just fine
    Earth greening / More forested land discovered (enough to cover 2/3 of Australia)

    Oh, but wait! It was hot in Phoenix two days ago! Global Warming!

    No. Just summer in the Sonoran desert.

  5. AlecM permalink
    June 23, 2017 4:19 pm

    Convective heat flux in clouds offsets CO2-AGW almost exactly.

  6. June 24, 2017 12:35 am

    I have invented a new phrase for what is happing to our climate, “global milding”.

  7. Gerry, England permalink
    June 24, 2017 9:43 am

    Interesting that statistics not helpful to their cause come out slowly but of course the other way round they can’t get them out fast enough. Donald still has work to do to root out the believers at NOAA.

    • dave permalink
      June 24, 2017 11:57 am

      “…slowly…”

      When a company’s financial results are late, you can be CERTAIN that they contain something “the management” is desperate to spin. I write as a former auditor.

  8. June 24, 2017 4:30 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

Trackbacks

  1. 2016: Another ‘Very Quiet’ Year For Tornadoes – Continues decline since 1970s – ‘No EF-5 events’ last year — – NZ Conservative Coalition

Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: