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Analysis Of European Sea Level Rise

November 2, 2017
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By Paul Homewood

 

h/t Mike Waite

 

 

Another paper finds that there is nothing unusual about recent sea level rise, this time in Europe:

 

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ABSTRACT

Watson, P.J., 2017. Acceleration in European mean sea-level? A new insight using improved tools.

Research into sea-level rise has taken on particular prominence in more recent times owing to the global threat posed by climate change and the fact that mean sea level and temperature remain the key proxies by which we can measure changes to the climate system. Under various climate change scenarios, it has been estimated that the threat posed by the effects of sea-level rise might lead to annual damage costs across Europe on the order of €25 billion by the 2080s. European mean sea-level records are among the best time series data available globally by which to detect the presence of necessary accelerations forecast by physics-based projection models to elevate current rates of global sea-level rise (≈3 mm/y) to anywhere in the vicinity of 10–20 mm/y by 2100. The analysis in this paper is based on a recently developed analytical package titled “msltrend,” specifically designed to enhance estimates of trend, real-time velocity, and acceleration in the relative mean sea-level signal derived from long annual average ocean water level time series. Key findings are that at the 95% confidence level, no consistent or compelling evidence (yet) exists that recent rates of rise are higher or abnormal in the context of the historical records available across Europe, nor is there any evidence that geocentric rates of rise are above the global average. It is likely a further 20 years of data will distinguish whether recent increases are evidence of the onset of climate change–induced acceleration.

http://www.bioone.org/doi/full/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-16-00134.1

 

The paper also notes:

The results and findings from this large study of European mean sea-level records are broadly consistent with those for the complementary study of the mainland U.S. records (Watson, 2016c).

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10 Comments
  1. Joe Public permalink
    November 2, 2017 10:43 am

    Another warmist balloon deflated.

  2. November 2, 2017 10:51 am

    We knew that already !!
    But I love the bit at the end –
    “a further 20 years of data will distinguish whether recent increases are evidence of the onset of climate change–induced acceleration”.
    (So gimme a guaranteed job for the next 20 years)

  3. November 2, 2017 11:20 am

    Not sure what acceleration of SLR tells us. Acceleration alone does not establish anthropogenic cause. Please see
    https://ssrn.com/abstract=3023248

    • Ian Magness permalink
      November 2, 2017 1:07 pm

      Chaamjamal,
      Thank you for that link to another interesting paper. You are right to state that “acceleration alone does not establish anthropogenic cause”. However, isn’t the whole point of these papers that there is NO acceleration going on? The point, I would have thought, is that, under AGW theory, the increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere during the 20th century (as caused by man) should have caused the rate of sea level rise to exceed the underlying post-glacial, non-CO2-caused sea level rise signal. The latter hasn’t happened thus casting serious doubt as to whether Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are causing sea level rise.

  4. tom0mason permalink
    November 2, 2017 2:15 pm

    You mean that as we warm up after the LIA the seas just rise?
    Wow, now there’s (not) a revelation.
    Next we may find nature likes lots of CO2 in the atmosphere!

    • Ian Magness permalink
      November 2, 2017 3:11 pm

      Too true tomomason – except of course all those poor, starving walruses and poley bears….

  5. November 2, 2017 7:57 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  6. CheshireRed permalink
    November 3, 2017 12:14 pm

    Sorry Paul, your claims cannot possibly be true, the Guardian says so. (Caution: the linked article could prove more lethal than Monty Pythons ‘funniest joke in the world’, which killed anyone who read it via uncontrollable laughter)

    https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/nov/03/miami-shanghai-3c-warming-cities-underwater

  7. Gamecock permalink
    November 3, 2017 11:29 pm

    Until we can measure the basin and its variability, sea level rise is an absolute mystery. Any causal claims by anyone is completely made up. We simply don’t know enough.

    Yeah, sounds like Climate Change™.

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