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Global SST data confirms cooling is on the way

January 27, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

Re posted from Norman Page:

 

image

THE COMING COOLING.
The latest hadsst3 data shows global SST temperatures are now below the pre El Nino trend.

 

 HADSST2018125B

 

I see that reality is beginning to intrude upon the dangerous global warming team. They say ” it is plausible, if not likely, that the next 10 years of global temperature change will leave an impression of a ‘global warming hiatus’.”
Climate is controlled by natural cycles. Earth is just past the 2003+/- peak of a millennial cycle and the current cooling trend will likely continue until the next Little Ice Age minimum at about 2650.See the Energy and Environment paper at
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0958305X16686488
and an earlier accessible blog version at http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-coming-cooling-usefully-accurate_17.html
Here is the abstract for convenience.

 

 Read the full post here.

 

This is a reminder that oceans govern the climate.

If we look at the full HADSST3 record, we can see that sea surface temperatures have been steadily rising since 1900, with the exception of the cooling period between 1940 and 1980, which coincided with the cold phases of the AMO and PDO.

What we have is part of a far bigger picture than the one painted by CO2 alarmists.

 

hadsst3gl

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst3gl

 

It is also evident that the sort of sharp rises and falls, which we have just seen during the recent El Nino episode, are in fact very common.

At some stage, probably within the next decade, the AMO and PDO will both enter cold phase, which will cause a similar drop in global temperatures as in the mid 20thC.

Watch for more climate scientists to start backing off. They will try to hide reality by talking about “10-year hiatuses”, as Hansen and Schmidt have done.

Don’t be fooled!

jisao-pdo

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/jisao-pdo

esrl-amo

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-amo

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32 Comments
  1. Ajax permalink
    January 27, 2018 11:55 am

    Great common sense. When, I wonder, if ever, will all those warmist alarmists begin to admit the manifold errors of their ways ? In particular, our government, press, including the BBC, and all those thousands of pseudo scientists, who make fat livings out of bad science and lies. Not any time soon, I suppose.

    • Chris Lynch permalink
      January 27, 2018 6:08 pm

      Unfortunately the phrase “too big to fail” tells you why all these groups that have tied themselves the wagon will continue to double down on the propaganda and will never admit that they were wrong.

    • Adam Gallon permalink
      January 27, 2018 10:00 pm

      All the political capital spent on CAGW, the tax revenues associated with it & the industrial might of the companies supplying “Green” energy devices & the scope for massive EV sales, means that it’ll take a prolonged cooling to even put a dent in this scam.

  2. Gerry, England permalink
    January 27, 2018 12:23 pm

    The warmists are being caught in a pincer by reality on one side and Donald Trump on the other. Other evidence that they are moving their goalposts is the focus on weather extremes and on air quality as a way of still ruining the economy.

  3. January 27, 2018 12:43 pm

    This post provides details on SSTs since 1995, confirming what Page is saying.

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2018/01/18/oceans-cool-off-previous-3-years/

  4. Michael Lancaster permalink
    January 27, 2018 1:36 pm

    And above all stay cool man!:-)

    Dad

  5. Bill Scott permalink
    January 27, 2018 2:00 pm

    These facts should be required reading for all politicians who are led by a ring nose by the crooked Warming quasi scientists

  6. January 27, 2018 2:01 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  7. Broadlands permalink
    January 27, 2018 3:25 pm

    It’s worth remembering that the ENSO is made up of three parts. The El-Nino warms, the La-Nina cools and the “El-Nada” is “neutral”…does nothing. Put them all together over longer time frames and the net result is little or no trend. Certainly no correlation with CO2.

  8. RAH permalink
    January 27, 2018 3:30 pm

    Really not news to celebrate unless one puts the importance of fight over AGW/Climate Change over the general welfare of humanity.

    I have posted this elsewhere but will mention it here. As I was driving Thursday I tuned to AM radio and listened to the Indiana Agricultural Report. The guest expert was talking about sulfur depletion in soil. He said that farmers had not had to worry about it because in the past “acid rain” had kept the sulfur concentration in the soils within the optimum range for most crops. However now it is being found in many fields that sulfur concentration levels are dropping below the optimum range for the most common crops grown in Indiana and that farmers need to ask specifically for testing for it because it is not part of the normal soil analysis. So now what farmers once got free they are going to have to pay for to be sure their yields and crop quality do not decline. Who would have thought that there was a benefit from “acid rain”?

  9. RAH permalink
    January 27, 2018 3:47 pm

    Could this be the beginning of the transition of the “experts” from CAGW to Catastrophic cooling. Like the fear of an ice age they were hyping in the 70s?
    BTW Seb, don’t try to claim that didn’t happen in the 70’s. I was in HS then and remember it.

    • Harry Passfield permalink
      January 27, 2018 8:36 pm

      For it to be the ‘beginning of the end’ would require an awful lot of saving face. That means ‘they’ have to come up with a believable scenario that explains their move from warming to cooling. Now, have we got a nice handy cooing gas in the atmosphere, preferably caused by humans – that can explain it? And, furthermore, one that can be taxed?

  10. Bloke down the pub permalink
    January 27, 2018 4:55 pm

    The top graph in the post is a little deceptive, as the right hand part of the trend is only valid up til 2014, not up till present as it appears.
    On a slightly different tangent, the thought crossed my mind today that, with talk by Def Sec Mattis about Russia and China being the biggest threat to the US, are we seeing a return to the old bogeymen because fear of the upstart cagw failed to materialise? After all , governments need something to keep the populace worried about.

    • RAH permalink
      January 27, 2018 7:00 pm

      The Sec. Def. is just doing his job. Identifying and preparing the armed forces to defend against real potential threats as opposed to the imaginary one promoted by the democrats. And his remarks should also be taken in the context that the US military capability has degraded under the last administration as it has under every Democrat administration since Vietnam. In the end technology and preparedness helps to prevent wars and saves lives in the event there is one. I was in the military under Carter, Reagan, and Clinton.

      • J Martin permalink
        January 27, 2018 8:38 pm

        Russia is reconfiguring it’s forces to a more defensive structure, though retaining the ultimate retaliation capability of ICBMs. Russia is not an enemy of the USA, China however…

        Getting back on topic, we can but hope that the forthcoming solar slowdown and AMO effects produce cooling, or at least an extended pause otherwise we will all have to suffer the tiresome alarmism of the BBC and the brain dead mass media.

      • RAH permalink
        January 27, 2018 9:21 pm

        The Russians have also been acting more aggressively in the last few years than they have at any time since the end of the Cold war. It is however merely a front. Fact is that Russia simply does not have the economic might to become the superpower they once were. So they keep their Special Operations and a few divisions at world class standards, but the bulk of their forces, which are conscripted, are third rate or worse. Their defense industry was decimated in capability and capacity in the decades since the Warsaw Pact died and their best engineering brains tend to leave for greener pastures where they can make a better living.

        As for the topic. We are going to have to suffer through their BS no matter what happens. Or do you really doubt that they will continue to focus on droughts, storms, wild fires, etc even if it does cool.

    • January 27, 2018 7:31 pm

      Yes, I had not spotted that.

      The dotted line continues it onwards to now.

    • bob nielsen permalink
      January 29, 2018 2:14 am

      Sorry, USA over the last 25 years has been an aggressor all round the world. In 1990 Russia was in Germany, but then pulled its forces back to the Urals and Russian border. The NATO west since 1990 has expanded and pushed east from Germany to the Russian border where it now parades. NATO is the aggressor and the USA has been provoking Russia in every way, by sponsoring coups in Ukraine and a failed one in Syria, and through a mega media propaganda machine now in full Russophobic hysteria. Apparently the Russians have hacked every bedroom in the USA. Best thing the Yanks could do is take some valium and cut their defence spending in half. then the rest of the world could follow rather than having to keep building defenses to protect from yankee aggression.

      • dave permalink
        January 29, 2018 10:09 am

        Well, so far, President Trump has proved a consistent Pacifist compared to his Establishment predecessors. He has not started any new wars; he is merely finishing ones he did not start (as outsider Nixon did with Vietnam and outsider Reagan did with the Cold War). He has come to a modus vivendi with both Russia and China (his tweets are only for domestic consumption. )

        Trump is letting rip fossil fuel production in USA (ten million bpd crude oil this year), with a view to abandoning the traditional – exhausting – military role of the USA in guaranteeing the flow of oil worldwide (Watch out, Europe!)

        Trump is not going to cut the military budget, of course. He does not have that political power. He probably does not even have that immediate ambition – “speaking softly” only works if you have the proverbial “big stick.”

        He has problems with the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran – but those are inothing new.

        Combining this foreign policy with a tax-cutting bill, Trump is delivering, at least partly, on his promise to put ordinary Americans first. Of course, it will all mean nothing if he, or somebody like him, is not re-elected, and the job goes “unfinished .”

  11. Markl permalink
    January 27, 2018 6:36 pm

    CAGW will die with a whimper and not a bang only to be replaced with a new bogeyman introduced by the Marxist/Socialist cabal. Watch how all the faithful ‘scientists’ will be abandoned to their own devices.

    • dave permalink
      January 27, 2018 7:04 pm

      “…with a whimper…”

      “Men go mad in herds, and come to their senses only belatedly, and in ones and twos.”

  12. Athelstan permalink
    January 27, 2018 9:21 pm

    The observations that we do have of the Atlantic overturning circulation over the past ten years show that it is declining. As a result, we expect the AMO is moving to a negative (colder surfer waters) phase. This is consistent with observations of temperature in the North Atlantic.

    Definitely and it ain’t about life giving but very minor by % atmospheric gas neither – link

    https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/83292/area14mp/image-20150528-31344-zr6dkt.png I do like clear graphs pity it finitos in 2010.

    _______________________________________________________________________

    Little highs, little lows and do not necessarily correspond to phases of PDO.

  13. RAH permalink
    January 27, 2018 11:03 pm

    Joe Bastardi has a nice Saturday Summary video up. Talks about sunspots and the MJO some.

  14. January 27, 2018 11:34 pm

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News.

  15. J Martin permalink
    January 28, 2018 2:04 pm

    What I’d like to know is, what proportion of an El Nino is from ocean vent warming and what proportion from solar.

    • Athelstan permalink
      January 28, 2018 7:54 pm

      erm, apart from geothermal which is an unquantified imponderable – oceans, currents, the gyre – just recycles solar irradiance.

  16. dave permalink
    January 28, 2018 3:33 pm

    Typically, the effect – in the shape of a warm water parcel – of intense vent activity in the East Pacific rise is not likely to be seen higher in the water column than 2 kilometers BELOW the surface before achieving neutral buoyancy, spreading out, and dissipating. So I would say that the proportion of an El Nino which could be explained AT the surface in this way (a burp of rising warm water, entraining other water) is probably small. Especially as the line of vents goes North/South and the El Nino regions go East/West.

    Since Solar output does not vary on the time scale of El Nino I would imagine that fluctuations in that input are not relevant, either.

    Once has to remember that the outflow of heat from the solid earth is not of high power – roughly 1/10 th of a watt per square meter of surface.

  17. dave permalink
    January 28, 2018 3:37 pm

    “Once…”

    One.

    Also. the flow of heat through the sea floor has to penetrate a thick blanket of bottom water
    – which is only a degree or two above freezing point.

  18. AndyG55 permalink
    January 28, 2018 6:45 pm

    OT, And so it starts

    http://joannenova.com.au/2018/01/melbourne-42000-homes-in-dark-no-fans-left-at-kmart-power-outages-due-to-secret-air-conditioners/

    Gees, you close down a power station capable of producing 1600MW, and then wonder why you run out of electricity. DOH !!!!

  19. Stosh permalink
    January 28, 2018 7:05 pm

    OMG, STOP THE PRESSES: Weather AND long term climate are cyclical!!!

    • dave permalink
      January 29, 2018 10:19 am

      Throughout human history, most philosophers have given due attention to cycles. “There is a tide in the affairs of men…”

  20. John caley permalink
    February 5, 2018 12:27 am

    see fbook group Ice Age NOW by John Caley…. and fbook blog John Edwin…. the prognosis for Earth is extinction.

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