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Two More New Papers Document No Warming Trend In Antarctica

May 2, 2018

By Paul Homewood


Repost from NoTricksZone:





For several decades now, Antarctica has not been cooperating with the “global” warming narrative, as the continent as a whole has not been warming.

Several scientific papers have been published recently that document the lack of an anthropogenic warming signal for the Antarctic continent or the surrounding ocean, as well as the dominance of natural variability.


Smith and Polvani (2016) concluded that warming of West Antarctica or the Antarctic Peninsula are predominantly natural.

[We] conclude that there is little evidence of anthropogenic SAM-induced driving of the recent temperature trendscompelling evidence pointing to natural climate variability as a key contributor to the recent warming of West Antarctica and of the Peninsula


Turner et al., 2016, in a paper entitled “Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability,” documented a significant cooling trend for the Antarctic Peninsula since the late 1990s.

The annual mean temperature has decreased at a statistically significant rate, with the most rapid cooling during the Austral summer.”



Jones et al. (2016) concluded that (a) there has been no overall warming trend for large portions of the continent in the past few hundred years, (b) the Southern Ocean has been cooling since 1979, and that (c), because of the cooling ocean, sea ice extent has been advancing.  In other words, climate models that assume humans drive Antarctic climate are “not compatible with the observed trends.”

Most observed trends [over the 36-year satellite data] are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries.  … [C]limate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations


A 2,000-Year Cooling Trend For Antarctica, Uninterrupted By Rising CO2 Levels

Scientific documentation of the dominance of natural variability — and a glaring lack of an anthropogenic forcing signal for Antarctica — continues in 2017.

The PAGES 2k reconstruction crew has just published a comprehensive analysis of the surface temperature trends for the entire continent of Antarctica.  The results do not advance the “global” warming narrative.  Instead, over 20 contributing scientists find that modern Antarctic temperatures are still much colder than they were during first millennium, and the long-term cooling trend has not been reversed on a continent-wide scale even with the onset of an assumed anthropogenic influence within the last century.

In other words, natural variability is the dominant factor influencing the Antarctic climate, not anthropogenic CO2 emissions.


Stenni et al., 2017

“Within this long-term cooling trend from 0-1900 CE we find that the warmest period occurs between 300 and 1000 CE, and the coldest interval from 1200 to 1900 CE.”

“Our new continental scale reconstructions, based on the extended database, corroborates previously published findings for Antarctica from the PAGES2k Consortium (2013): (1) Temperatures over the Antarctic continent show an overall cooling trend during the period from 0 to 1900 CE, which appears strongest in West Antarctica, and (2) no continent-scale warming of Antarctic temperature is evident in the last century.”


Read the full post here.

  1. May 2, 2018 3:20 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  2. May 2, 2018 3:25 pm

    You would never think that this was the case if you got all your “facts” about the state of the climate of Antarctica from the BBC.

  3. Mack permalink
    May 2, 2018 3:35 pm

    Er, weren’t the golden tenets of the original global warming theory that the impact of anthropogenic activities would be felt most acutely at the poles with a concomitant tropospheric hot spot signal evident? Well, the hot spot is apparently now buried way south of the troposhere in the deep ocean somewhere where no climate scientist can actually find it. A bit like the G spot, but far less exciting, the ‘hot spot’ has proved to be even more elusive. Strike one for the skeptics! The Antarctic stubbornly refuses to conform to the holy writ of climate alarmism by doing its’ own deep freeze thing and not melting. Strike Two for the skeptics! And the Arctic, well, what a contrary ocean that’s turned out to be. Just as man made warming supposedly went through the roof after World War 2, Arctic Ice actually expanded and thickened to it’s greatest extent in over a century before receding as it did previously. This melting got the alarmist doom mongers absolutely salivating as, at last, at least one part of the planet was performing according to their dire predictions. Unfortunately for them, since 2007, Arctic ice has stopped receding and, actually, thickened. Just as ‘warming’ anthropogenic emissions have grown year on year. Strike three for the skeptics! So, is it me or is the settled science of the original global warming theory just a teeny weeny weeny bit dodgy? Back to the drawing board methinks.

  4. RogerJC permalink
    May 2, 2018 3:43 pm

    But, but, but,…. only yesterday the BBC told me East London was at risk of flooding due to Antarctic ice melting.

  5. TinyCO2 permalink
    May 2, 2018 5:27 pm

    There doesn’t look like any effect from the ozone hole either.

  6. malcolm bell permalink
    May 2, 2018 5:32 pm

    Not really new papers Paul – they are early last year arn’t they.

    They haven’t stopped the huge panic the BBC is reporting about glacier collapse imminent down there.

  7. malcolm bell permalink
    May 2, 2018 5:32 pm

    Not really new papers Paul – they are early last year arn’t they.

    They haven’t stopped the huge panic the BBC is reporting about glacier collapse imminent down there.

  8. malcolm bell permalink
    May 2, 2018 5:32 pm

    Not really new papers Paul – they are early last year arn’t they.

    They haven’t stopped the huge panic the BBC is reporting about glacier collapse imminent down there.

  9. tom0mason permalink
    May 2, 2018 6:07 pm

    “They haven’t stopped the huge panic the BBC is reporting about glacier collapse imminent down there.” but did the BBC emphasize that the melting was caused by volcanic action in and around the area of the glacier? Did they point out that glacier already has a large toe in the water, thus any likely sea-level rise would be modified by this?

    • May 2, 2018 6:47 pm

      What! You expect Jonathan Amos, BBC Science Correspondent, to report the facts?

      I always find it very interesting that below every article on its website, the BBC has a link which says “Why you can trust BBC News”.
      Following the link the BBC tells you that the BBC is perfect “The BBC is recognised by audiences in the UK and around the world as a provider of news that you can trust. Our website, like our TV and radio services, strives for journalism that is accurate, impartial, independent and fair.” And there’s more: “The trust that our audience has in all our content underpins everything that we do. We are independent, impartial and honest”.. On and on it goes telling you how trustworthy the BBC is. What a joke!

    • Harry Passfield permalink
      May 2, 2018 8:26 pm

      Nope. The BBC just reported it as warmer sea water flowing under the ice. They left it up to viewers to infer it was down to CC. Lying by omission. Comes naturally – just like CC – to the BBC. (I wonder what would happen if they employed a correspondent with a real science qualification – especially one that, as a true scientist, was sceptical?)

      • May 3, 2018 9:44 am

        So very true Harry. If they did employ such a person, he or she wouldn’t last long.

      • Gerry, England permalink
        May 3, 2018 12:51 pm

        They ensure this will not happen by only advertising posts in the Guardian.

  10. Broadlands permalink
    May 2, 2018 7:05 pm

    Why would any modeler think that a global model could “know” in advance what the various natural variations would do? They guessed wrong ~40 years ago. The idea that humans can overwhelm whatever they throw at us is pomposity, exceeded only by the idea that we can now reverse it by removing some CO2…and storing tons of it somewhere.

    • tom0mason permalink
      May 2, 2018 10:18 pm

      These sophisticated models are carefully crafted using science principles, educated estimates, and methods that ensure that the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming and climate change prophecies are correctly correlated with both the CO2 levels, and the required level of self congratulatory, ego expanding, hubris required by the advocates of this theory.
      Because these models are the linchpin of the cAGW theory they of course require vast armies of scientists, mathematicians, bureaucrats, etc., and $100s of $billions to maintain them lest a more chaotic reality asserts itself. This is of course, in line with the new normal of today’s modern science methodology.
      [Also see the science of green battery manufacturing, cooling the world with low energy battery vehicles, how self renewing green solar cells lower sea-levels, and cleaning airborne pollution by growing Gaia’s wind turbines, as explained in his book ‘mmMannn I’m Lovin’ It’ by Pen State.]

      • Broadlands permalink
        May 2, 2018 11:38 pm

        Carefully crafted indeed…

        “Climate models render as much as they can by applying the laws of physics to imaginary boxes tens of kilometers a side. But some processes, like cloud formation, are too fine-grained for that, and so modelers use “parameterizations”: equations meant to approximate their effects. For years, climate scientists have tuned their parameterizations so that the model overall matches climate records. But fearing criticism by climate skeptics, they have largely kept quiet about how they tune their models, and by how much…”

  11. May 3, 2018 12:19 am

    There is one place in Anrarctica that experiences a couple of months where temperatures rise above the freezing point of water. The Davis Station, commonly called Davis, is one of three permanent bases and research outposts in Antarctica managed by the Australian Antarctic Division (AAD). Davis is situated on the coast of Cooperation Sea in Princess Elizabeth Land, Ingrid Christensen Coast in the Australian Antarctic Territory, a territory claimed by Australia. Davis lies in the Antarctic oasis, a remarkable ice free area known as the Vestfold Hills.

    Elsewhere on Antarctica, the ice is permanently locked up.because air temperature is always well below freezing point.

    The Antarctic circumpolar trough over the ocean on the margins of Antarctica exhibits the lowest surface atmospheric pressures on the planet and it ensures that the air flow is always off the continent towards the Ocean.

    Over the last seventy years, reanalysis data indicates intensification of the circumpolar trough with a 10mb reduction in surface pressure at 60-70° south latitude. Warmest month temperatures are in decline and currently stand at about minus 10°C.

    In winter the air above the ice is always warmer than the ice. Winter air temperatures have risen with the general warming of the Antarctic air column at that time of the year and currently stand at minus 35°C at the surface.

    At the South Pole the American base the buildings are supported on posts and can be jacked up as the ice accumulates. That is what should be expected over the entire continent.

  12. Gerry, England permalink
    May 3, 2018 12:52 pm

    Meanwhile the Pyrenees has just had 8 inches of snow!

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