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Bob Ward’s Misinformation Campaign

August 1, 2018

Bob Ward has been up to his tricks again, with this letter in the Mail in response to Booker’s article on the heatwave last week:

 

 

 

Ward’s modus operandi never changes. He comes up with a few cherry picked numbers, that have little to do with the subject, and quotes some bit of junk science, that has even less relevance.

Next time the Mail prints a letter from him, maybe they ought also to publish a relevant graph, to let readers formulate their own opinion.

For instance, this one of summer max temperature trends from the Met Office:

 

 

There have been just seven summers over 20c since 1910:

1911

1933

1947

1976

1995

2003

2006

 

While we don’t know how this summer will work out (and neither does Bob Ward), since 2006 we have had eleven distinctly average summers.

The hot summers above are still rare events, and are all essentially weather events. There is no evidence that these extreme weather events are becoming more frequent.

 

 

 

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28 Comments
  1. Jack Broughton permalink
    August 1, 2018 1:11 pm

    It seems to me that there is a massive increase in the Fear Campaign about global warming in the meja. According to the BBC /ITV this week so far, farmers are suffering, animals are suffering and people are being killed etc. Not one of the programs that I have heard has made any comment that these are purely political science and that other opinions exist.

    Fortunately, public interest in these outpourings seems to be at an all time low: do the two factors go together?

    • Mack permalink
      August 1, 2018 9:35 pm

      Interesting how the increased number of excess winter deaths, due to brutally cold weather (far in excess of those caused by summer heat spikes), and inexhorably rising heating bills and population growth, don’t seem to animate the MSM as much as so called ‘austerity’. The fact that the NHS has never been so lavishly funded as a proportion of GDP and more people die in a week in winter due to fuel poverty than can be confidently attributed to heat in our generally mediocre summers tells you all you need to know about how the majority of our nation’s journalists have hoisted the white flag and succumbed to group think. Sad.

  2. August 1, 2018 1:34 pm

    All above average summers are due to “global warming”.
    All below average ones are due to “climate change”.

    • August 1, 2018 6:19 pm

      And in any case, temperature variations don’t announce their own causes. Making exaggerated and untestable assertions about the supposed influence of humans is the self-appointed role of the media and the climate propagandists.

  3. Phoenix44 permalink
    August 1, 2018 1:38 pm

    “some unnecessary money”? The tens of trillions we will end up spending?

    And the old precautionary principle is pure nonsense – it might make some sense in some cases, but it cannot be used when the choice is costs now or costs later. For that you need to actually do the numbers.

    Ward is a liar, and a paid liar at that.

  4. GeoffB permalink
    August 1, 2018 1:40 pm

    I must be missing something, the graph is Maximum Temperature Summer UK. So where is the 38.5C recorded at Faversham on 10th Aug 2003. Highest EVA. Please explain.

    • August 1, 2018 1:47 pm

      I think the graph shows mean monthly maximum temperatures.

      • August 1, 2018 2:36 pm

        I think they are mean maximum summer temperatures which ought to be 21/06 to 21/09. Month by month temperatures would give better detail.

        Either way, as usual, Ward is simply yapping to his master’s command like the poodle he is.

      • August 1, 2018 2:54 pm

        MO summer is 1/6 to 31/8, they don’t do part months.

      • August 1, 2018 2:57 pm

        Since we are discussing summer, I think June – August is right.
        Individual months would just confuse the issue.

      • GeoffB permalink
        August 1, 2018 4:06 pm

        OK its a mean of the daily max over summer (from anywhere in the UK), but that’s not clear from the title. I guess Bob Ward is referencing the maximum temperature achieved in all of the summer. At the end of this July all the green loonies were hoping to beat the absolute max and that would have headlined on the BBC…..but it did not happen. Its amazing how the Grantham Research Institute gets away with distorting the interpretation of facts.

    • dennisambler permalink
      August 3, 2018 11:12 am

      And they directly influence government policy via membership of the CCC.

      http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/about/about-the-institute/advisory-board/
      Advisory board has Ed Davy, John Schellnhuber in its ranks.

      CCC has Hoskins and Skea from Grantham Institute, also has Head of Sustainability and Policy at Drax Group.
      https://www.theccc.org.uk/about/committee-on-climate-change/

      “Committee members have a duty to:
      act impartially and objectively
      avoid conflicts of interest”

      Not forgetting the estimable Lord Deben:
      “He also runs Sancroft, a corporate responsibility consultancy working with blue-chip companies around the world on environmental, social and ethical issues
      He is Chairman of Valpak Limited”

    • Randy permalink
      August 8, 2018 12:57 am

      It’s average temps. Not highest temps.

  5. Ben Vorlich permalink
    August 1, 2018 2:54 pm

    When compared with 1976, as I understand it, this summer is neither as long nor as hot. So if the effects are more severe then that is due to failings in the infrastructure and planning.

    I would suggest more people work in offices, often air-conditioned, fewer in manufacturing meaning less exposure to extreme temperatures. One hopes workers in the open air are just as Hardy as their predecessors of 40 years ago. More private homes have air conditioning than 40 years ago.
    All in all our ability to survive this heatwave should be better than in 1976.

  6. August 1, 2018 2:58 pm

    Heat waves are a sign that evil forces are at work and that it is time to burn some witches to set things right.

  7. Broadlands permalink
    August 1, 2018 4:38 pm

    Yet another “chicken little” with another “sky is falling” warning. But, as usual, not accompanied by any plausible solution. It’s much easier (and cheaper) to create scary model forecasts than to create meaningful, plausible solutions.

  8. John189 permalink
    August 1, 2018 5:46 pm

    I noticed in the Mail column’s first letter (“A. Cotton” of Southampton) that there is now an active attempt to downgrade the heat of 1976. There are whispers that, like the MWP, it never really happened except on a purely local scale, whilst the heat of 2018 is “global”. I am old enough to remember that the heat of 1976 was NOT confined just to the UK, and realise too that the high temperatures many of us have been enjoying (yes! enjoying!) this year have not by any means extended to all parts of the UK.

    • Mack permalink
      August 1, 2018 10:25 pm

      Quite right John. Pleasantly warm in Galloway for the most part since late May but with a slightly chilly northerly wind predominating. Definitely not mankini weather. 10 degrees warmer darn sarf!

    • saparonia permalink
      August 2, 2018 1:04 am

      John189, Frank Herbert’s God Emperor of the Known Universe, Lord Leto had all the historians rendered unconscious and burned alive on pyres of their own books for good reason.

      Historians make history

    • paul weldon permalink
      August 2, 2018 6:29 am

      John, I am also old enough to remember 1976 but must disagree with your comment on the extent of the heatwave between now and 1976. In 1976 the extent was into Denmark and Holland, but not much further. This year the extent appears to be further. I am in Latvia and we are also having a warm summer (and enjoying it too!) but in 1976, when I look at our local records (Liepaja) 1976 was colder than normal. The annual temperatures here tend to follow CET temperatures fairly closely, but there are exceptions and 1976 was one. I have a graph that I have made from both records to show the comparisons, but it will not post here, so if you are in any doubt as to the accuracy of my comments, I can send it to you personally.

      • John189 permalink
        August 2, 2018 10:41 pm

        Ah! Liepājā! “Pilsētā, kurā piedzimst vējš!” I do not doubt the accuracy of your comments for one moment @ Paul Weldon, but you may have slightly misunderstood mine. Irked at attempts appearing in the media to downplay 1976, I was merely pointing out that the heat of that year did indeed extend beyond the UK. You yourself mentioned Denmark, and I believe north Germany, northern France, the Netherlands and Belgium all recorded high temperatures over a sustained period, but certainly not over the wide area of our current warm weather. Really, the comparison of 2018 with 1976 is a false one and is generated by media who are obsessed with that year: a better comparison might be with the European heatwave of 2003. Meanwhile I hope you enjoy the rest of the summer in breezy Liepājā – I myself have worked in St Petersburg and Moscow and have sweltered whilst the UK sat beneath chill, rainy skies!

      • August 5, 2018 9:31 pm

        I was not in Europe in 1976. But I get the impression it was as much a drought as a heat wave. 1983 and 2006 were also very hot.

  9. John F. Hultquist permalink
    August 1, 2018 7:24 pm

    If CO2 is the control element of global warming, then what happens across the UK is of little importance unless the same things are happening on the other 2,102 surface spaces on Earth of equal size.
    Perhaps, I don’t understand the meaning of “global.”
    Still, I’d need to see world wide numbers for the events your Mr. Ward thinks are “proof” of something, and then show how the events are caused by (human induced) global warming.

    Our little space on Earth seems to be well within past standards, as shown in these charts:
    Central Washington Temps since Jan. 1 , with colors showing record lows and highs for the day.

  10. August 2, 2018 2:58 am

    Sunshine is up too if you check at the same sourceof your graph.

    • dennisambler permalink
      August 3, 2018 11:16 am

      Funny thing, that. Why would temperature follow sunshine hours? Weird!

  11. mwhite permalink
    August 2, 2018 6:59 pm

    It’s the Atlantic Stupid!

    https://patriotpost.us/opinion/57393-europe-heat-wave-questioning-mans-attribution

    So says Joe Bastardi.

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