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Arctic Sea Ice Ignores Alarmists Dire Predictions

September 11, 2018
tags:

By Paul Homewood

 

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

 

Arctic sea ice has gone under the radar a bit this summer, with alarmists’ propaganda drawn to heatwaves elsewhere.

As sea ice extent draws close to its minimum, it looks like finishing well above the last three years.

Temperatures across the Arctic are now falling rapidly:

 

https://i0.wp.com/ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2018.png

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

Most of the central Arctic basin is full of two and three meter thick ice, and volume is close to the 2004-13 mean:

 

https://i0.wp.com/ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/images/FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20180910.png

 

 

Of course, experts told us it would all be gone two years ago:

 image

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/arctic-could-become-ice-free-for-first-time-in-more-than-100000-years-claims-leading-scientist-a7065781.html

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24 Comments
  1. John Moore permalink
    September 11, 2018 2:24 pm

    Dear Martin, It’s OK! you can stop worrying about the Arctic….. John M.

    On 11 September 2018 at 14:02, NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT wrote:

    > Paul Homewood posted: “By Paul Homewood http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/ > icecover.uk.php Arctic sea ice has gone under the radar a bit this > summer, with alarmists’ propaganda drawn to heatwaves elsewhere. As sea ice > extent draws close to its minimum, it loo” >

  2. Jack Broughton permalink
    September 11, 2018 2:41 pm

    Wadhams, like the other experts, get their moment of pontifical lecturing from a “Fear-campaign” frantic press, but never seem to appear when the predictions are proved wrong, nor do the press! When “experts” prove their inadequacy, they should be discredited as experts. However, having been involved with expert witnesses in legal cases I do know that there is no hard definition of an expert.

    Is there any evidence to support the claim that the Arctic has not been ice-free in 100,000 years? It may well have been so during the MWP, how does anyone know?

    • Gerry, England permalink
      September 12, 2018 2:12 pm

      I believe that even his own side disowned Wadham after that 2016 claim. If not, they certainly did once he claimed a Big Oil hit squad was bumping off scientists after 3 died in a short time – but with explained circumstances. One was run over by a truck outside my office.

  3. Phillip Bratby permalink
    September 11, 2018 2:43 pm

    To label Peter Wadhams as a leading scientist and an expert is just a slight bit of exaggeration. Has he ever got anything about the Arctic sea ice right?

  4. September 11, 2018 2:44 pm

    Darned Arctic Sea Ice. Get with the program.

  5. September 11, 2018 3:35 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  6. Phoenix44 permalink
    September 11, 2018 3:50 pm

    Despite the hysterical shouting from Alarmists when the temperature was “high” at the beginning of the year!

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/27/arctic-warming-scientists-alarmed-by-crazy-temperature-rises

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/06/arctic-warmest-winter-record-climate-change

    And this back in 2012, which warned that the coming winter and summer would be “unpleasant”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/aug/27/arctic-ice-rich-world-disaster

  7. Mack permalink
    September 11, 2018 3:59 pm

    Looking forward to the BBC’s top science correspondents covering the failure of the Arctic this summer to conform to the predictions of the ‘settled science’ priesthood. How are the polar bears doing? Oh, their numbers are growing too against all ‘settled science’ projections. Make a good ‘double header’ news story that. Can’t wait to watch it. Shall I hold my breath? Must be quite depressing at Doomster HQ with nothing out of the range of natural climatic variability occurring anywhere this year, despite how much they have tried to ramp up the usual heatwave, bush fire and flooding stories. You’d have thought they’d be wishing for a hurricane to really try and get their narrative back on track…. oh, hang on a minute, wait for it! Regardless of the censorship shenanigans at the Beeb, I do sincerely hope that the poor people in the path of Hurricane Florence stay safe.

  8. September 11, 2018 4:54 pm

    The only meltdown is in alarmists’ brains.

    • keith permalink
      September 12, 2018 10:17 am

      Sorry, what brains?

  9. Paul Travers permalink
    September 11, 2018 8:07 pm

    In reply to Jack Broughton’s comment it is thought that the Chinese were happily sailing junks in the Arctic some 500 years ago. But then, why let this inconvenient fact spoil a really good story?

  10. Pethefin permalink
    September 11, 2018 9:46 pm

    Well, even this DMI temperature “data” is based on a rather complex model and analysis and re-analysis etc., so you should take a close look at the DMI explanation of it (there’s a link to this on the +80N temperature page:

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/documentation/arctic_mean_temp_data_explanation_newest.pdf

    Among other things, this is should ring alarm bells among skeptics:

    “ERA40 data are in fact analyses, made in the same way as above, but done as a hind-cast, using a fixed version of the NWP model, and spending time on carefully validating and eventually correct or remove all observations found to be in error, before the data assimilation. These, so-called “re-analysis”, data represent our best estimate of the properties of the atmosphere for the period they cover.”

    • Gerry, England permalink
      September 12, 2018 2:23 pm

      And yet it still doesn’t support their claims.

  11. Bitter@twisted permalink
    September 12, 2018 8:12 am

    Looks like the Arctic sea-ice extent will not fall below 5 Wadhams this summer 😁

    • Mack permalink
      September 12, 2018 10:55 am

      In the topsy turvy world of Wadhams if Arctic sea ice extent is down to its’ last 1 million km2 of ice doesn’t that equate to the Arctic being technically ice free? In which case, 5 Wadhams must mean the Arctic is really, really, really, really, really ice free this summer. Just don’t believe your lying eyes.

  12. Rudolph Hucker permalink
    September 12, 2018 12:47 pm

    Is there a University degree in TTB! Known in East Anglia as talking total balls.

  13. Gamecock permalink
    September 12, 2018 3:42 pm

    Independent maths: a million square kilometers is ‘ice free.’

    • dave permalink
      September 12, 2018 5:13 pm

      The “1 million sq km” nonsense appeared a few years ago, when the Wad (mistakenly) thought the ice-extent was going down to this; and so he hurriedly claimed this was what he meant all along.

  14. Bitter@twisted permalink
    September 12, 2018 5:33 pm

    “Professor” Wadhams has blocked emails from me because I pointed out, to him, that actual sea-ice extents were not following his model and predictions.

    He is what you would call a sore loser.

  15. Tim Spence permalink
    September 12, 2018 7:01 pm

    A bit off topic and declaring my ignorance of Atlantic hurricanes, but how do they know that hurricane Florence will continue on a straight line to N. Carolina, when most seem to veer off north easterly before or when they hit mainland USA?

    • dave permalink
      September 13, 2018 7:22 am

      “…how do they know…?”

      The larger patterns of high and low pressure produce “steering winds.”

  16. Stonyground permalink
    September 13, 2018 6:50 am

    Last night I saw a TV ad for WWF that was clearly making false claims about melting ice and its supposed effect on polar bears. A complaint to the advertising standards authority is on my to do list.

  17. September 13, 2018 5:02 pm

    They have found the wreckage of a Scottish whaling ship Nova Zembla off Baffin Island.
    https://www.canadiangeographic.ca/article/rcgs-flag-expedition-discovers-wreck-scottish-whaling-ship-baffin-island
    The discovery is part of The Northern Seas project which will use ships logs etc. to determine ice conditions dating back to 1750’s. It part of Arctic Institute of North America.

    https://arctic.ucalgary.ca/northern-seas

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