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NOAA’s Failed Winter Outlook

February 1, 2019
tags: , ,

By Paul Homewood

 

h/t Joe Public

 

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47088684

 

 

While much of  the US continues in the grip of a brutally cold winter, we can take a look back at what NOAA predicted three months ago:

 

 

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https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-favors-warmer-temperatures-for-much-of-us

 

And Ryan Maue reminds us that the cold is not localised

 

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https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1089996525055422467/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1089996525055422467&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdailycaller.com%2F2019%2F01%2F28%2Fpolar-vortex-freezing-temps%2F

 

 

Perhaps NOAA have been taking lessons for our dear old Met Office!

23 Comments
  1. Joe Public permalink
    February 1, 2019 12:38 pm

    Aunty could have been a little more accurate with its video caption.

    It’s not so much “…. using fire to melt snow on the railway and keep the trains running” as defrosting the points to maintain their switchability.

    • Gerry, England permalink
      February 1, 2019 1:46 pm

      The words ‘accurate’ and ‘BBC’ are mutually exclusive.

  2. Ajax permalink
    February 1, 2019 12:42 pm

    One might be tempted to think of them as a bunch of hopeless snollygosters. What else ?

  3. MrGrimNasty permalink
    February 1, 2019 12:55 pm

    More BBC hottest ever blah blah.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-47085785

    • John Gorter permalink
      February 2, 2019 11:30 am

      Sounds like a pretty normal summer to me, after a long cool to cold winter in Western Australia.
      Ciao
      John

  4. Malcolm Bell permalink
    February 1, 2019 1:32 pm

    I blame global warming!

  5. February 1, 2019 1:37 pm

    In January, 1963, I took the last final exam of my first semester freshman year at West Virginia University in my Humanities class. Daddy taught chemistry. That morning as we walked across the campus, it was -14 F. I was wearing a “boy-coat” with a raccoon collar my aunt had given me. I had tall leather boots with sherpa lining and ripple soles. I also wore a skirt as required. Two days ago, with the temperature going down to -2 F, WVU closed down as did all of the pubic schools.

    Several days ago, President Trump tweeted out that the chill was coming across the country and lamented the lack of “global warming” when we needed it.

    We do not have temperatures this low every year, but it certainly is not uncommon. Today, the temperatures are in the teens and it is now snowing with 4″ on the ground.

    • Gerry, England permalink
      February 1, 2019 1:48 pm

      My schooldays were somewhat later but there were no closures in my day. At grammar school we were allowed onto the school field for snowball fights.

  6. February 1, 2019 1:49 pm

    But Climate Central had it nailed on in their Nov 2017 item:
    https://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/maps/heres-where-winters-are-warming-the-most

  7. quaesoveritas permalink
    February 1, 2019 1:52 pm

    Of course, its all due to “climate change”./sarc
    Yesterday in reporting the “polar vortex”, the BBC couldn’t resist adding some scientists say that climate change would make displacement of the vortex more likely.

  8. Broadlands permalink
    February 1, 2019 2:50 pm

    The natural ENSO has met the natural polar vortex without the help of humanity’s added CO2 to warm it while “pausing”?

  9. NeilC permalink
    February 1, 2019 3:31 pm

    We’ve just had 23 hours, level covering (15″) of global warming. Thanks Mr Vine, I thought our children wouldn’t see any more snow. But that’s the Met Office for you, and NOAA trying to out do you.

  10. February 1, 2019 3:48 pm

    I wish the scientists would just admit they haven’t a clue as to how the weather and climate system works and that any estimates of where we will be in a few years is nonsensical when they can’t even forecast the weather accurately much further out than 48 hours.

    We are currently towards the end of the weakest solar cycle in 200 years and with the next cycle forecast to be weak too, vast tracts of the Northern hemisphere are below average temperature and the much hyped El Nino (forecast just 3 months ago with 70-80% confidence) failed to fully materialise. The Atlantic is looking like switching to negative AMO, the PDO is negative and prior history shows a reasonable chance that we are now in the downward slope of a 60 year natural warming/cooling cycle. Despite all these possible natural reasons that could contribute to the current cold weather, vortex movement and jet stream tracks, alarmists continue to attribute it all to CO2 emitted by humans, unbelievable!

    • Kenneth Capron permalink
      February 1, 2019 6:32 pm

      Alarmists are just trying to justify a ban on Bean Suppers.

    • dave permalink
      February 2, 2019 9:11 am

      “…the PDO is negative…”

      The index I use is as follows:

      http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

      It is not kept quite up-to-date. The latest figures (to end Sep 2018) show the PDO as neutral.

      I agree that there are many processes which seem to be tipping towards a natural cooling effect – the Antarctica ozone-layer’s recovery, the longer cycles in the Sun’s magnetic activity – connected with the movements of the barycenter of the solar system, the variations in the ocean conveyor belt, etc…

      Those of us who are genuinely curious will have to wait and see.

      When I want to learn a little more science or mathematics, I tend now to pick up a book from the 19th Century for instruction. It is such a relief to be in contact with cool, rational thought.

      The Victorian scientists often did not have answers, but they had a nose for rubbish answers.

      The late 19th Century was, however, the time when a general, intellectual rot began.
      It manifested itself in Science as a worship of ‘German methods’ and the accompanying idea that you had to be properly ‘trained’ and accepted as ‘orthodox’ by other academics.

  11. February 1, 2019 5:35 pm

    The high priests of the climate change religion have locked themselves into the AGM narrative. Whatever happens must be ascribed to man-made CO2, since to admit otherwise would bring their whole world crashing down around their ears. If glaciers were threatening to overwhelm Hollywood, the high priests would solemnly intone that it was all due to global warming, and the only way to save the world would be to build more wind turbines and solar panels.

    It is to laugh.

  12. February 1, 2019 6:09 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  13. February 1, 2019 6:38 pm

    Don’t forget David Viners’ ill-advised comments that keep returning each and every winter!

  14. February 1, 2019 8:04 pm

    I feel really sorry for the genuine scientists who just want to study, understand and explain things from a non biased scientific perspective. I suspect that there must be many that are truly P’d off with the morons hijacking their profession to use it to justify their religious crusade.

    I’m just a typical member of the public, I work hard, pay my taxes and just want a decent quality of life for my family. I don’t profess to be an expert in weather or climate but even I know enough to question what I’m being told.

    The majority of the normal people I speak to out on the street, friends, family and work colleagues just laugh at the alarmist scare stories. The media, political and educational establishments are now considered a joke by most of the general public. These are the very people that the alarmists actually need to persuade that CAGW is a reality (if that is what they believe) so they will be prepared to pay higher taxes and sacrifice their personal transport, heating, holidays, luxury electric goods etc.

    It seems to me that the ‘educated elite’ have only managed to alienate the very people they need to gain support from. Mainly from the OTT scare stories and gross exaggerated claims. The general public is now fed up of hearing that every weather event from snow, ice or fog to rain or a hot day is because of climate change/global warming. It really has got to the point of being a running joke. It is only a matter of a decade or so before the public is going to start voting out any politician that supports environmental issues, just as they will be voting out those that betrayed them on Brexit.

    If the media, politicians and climate community had actually told the truth, been genuinely open about the failings of their models, held their hands up and admitted they got things wrong with their forecasts etc then they may have gained more respect. As it is they have tarnished not just themselves but the entire scientific community. This may have long term consequences when it comes to funding in future years. The general public is close to breaking point with the current political elite and its cronies in the media and education system. I predict a major turning point in the next decade or so where joe public will turn, and turn hard, on anybody involved in the CAGW scam. Sadly a lot of innocent genuine scientists will be caught up in that.

    It is about time NOAA and the Met Office had a change of management and direction. A more open and honest direction is called for urgently.

  15. RAH permalink
    February 2, 2019 8:31 pm

    The sad thing is that just three weeks prior both the US and European weather models were showing most of the Midwest and east to have warmer than average temperatures for the period when we had arctic air descend upon us. The Canadian model was the first that I saw that caught on to what was headed our way.

    Another sad thing is that when I pointed out how terribly wrong the US and European weather models were this time forecasting less than a month out, and said that climate models that project years and even decades out are thus liable to be highly inaccurate someone argued with me. They said that weather models and climate models are like comparing apples and oranges. Never mind that supposedly both exist to project what future atmospheric conditions will be.

    • John189 permalink
      February 3, 2019 12:05 pm

      Models with inherent bias towards warm perhaps? U.K. Met Office had a warmer than average winter prediction in 2009-10 and we had deep snow and prolonged cold.

  16. Stoic permalink
    February 3, 2019 8:36 pm

    Just a reminder that David Viner now works for Mott Macdonald advising them on climate change: https://www.mottmac.com/article/614/mott-macdonald-appoints-dr-david-viner-as-pri

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