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Four Twenty Seven’s Error Strewn Report

April 24, 2020
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By Paul Homewood

Four Twenty Seven claims to be the leading publisher and provider of market intelligence on the economic risk of climate change. According to their website:

“Our mission is to catalyse climate adaptation and resilience investments by enabling the integration of climate science into business and policy decisions. In July 2019, Four Twenty Seven received a majority investment from Moody’s Corporation.”

They have just published this unbelievably amateurish research note on Covid-19 and climate change. It is based around the usual blend of picking a weather event and blaming it on climate change:

 image

http://427mt.com/2020/04/22/the-compounding-challenges-of-climate-hazards-and-covid-19/

To zoom in on the main claims:

CLAIM 1) Last week in the Southern U.S., residents and policy-makers weighed the risks of high winds and flooding alongside the risks of spreading COVID-19, as many evacuated to storm shelters, and 750,000 people lost power across ten states from Texas to West Virginia. The threat of climate-driven extreme weather events takes on new meaning when standard responses such as evacuating to shelters conflict with guidelines for preventing the spread of the disease.

 

Tornadoes are not “climate driven events”, and the start to this year’s tornado season has been pretty average:

U.S. Annual Tornado Trends

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data

Meanwhile long tern trends show a marked reduction in the number of tornadoes since the 1970s:

 image

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data

 

 

CLAIM 2) Devastating flooding last year disrupted lives, threatened livelihoods and contributed to 19 million acres of cropland going unplanted. Counties in the Midwest are among the most exposed to increasing extreme precipitation due to climate change in the next several decades (Figure 1), where these floods are likely to become a regular occurrence.

 

There is no evidence that floods are getting worse in the US, as recently confirmed by the US Geological Survey:

Only one of four large regions of the United States showed a significant relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere and the size of floods over the last 100 years. This was in the southwestern region, where floods have become smaller as CO2 has increased

https://web.archive.org/web/20120925165837/http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3006

CLAIM 3) NOAA predicts above-average temperatures for much of the country through July, with no regions expecting below-average temperatures.

 

According to the Fourth US National Climate Assessment in 2017, the frequency and magnitude of heatwaves across the country have declined sharply in the last century. There has been a similar reduction in cold spells.

In short, US temperatures are much less extreme than they used to be:

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/6/

 

CLAIM 4) Climate change is contributing to more frequent intense hurricanes

 

Hurricanes are neither becoming more frequent or intense in the US:

image

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

 

CLAIM 5) As climate change contributes to more severe droughts and extreme heat events, wildfire season in the western U.S. has worsened over the past several years

Wildfires have declined substantially since the early 20thC:

Figure 16-1: Graph of total acreage burned

https://web.archive.org/web/20140913135647/http://www.fs.fed.us:80/research/sustain/criteria-indicators/indicators/indicator-316.php

For a supposedly professional company, part of the ratings organisation Moody’s, to publish such a shoddy, amateurish report as this, full of errors and naive assumptions, hardly does Four Twenty Seven’s reputation any good. Nor Moody’s for that matter.

20 Comments
  1. Curious George permalink
    April 24, 2020 7:31 pm

    Provider of market intelligence on the economic risk of climate change?
    Is “market intelligence” the same oxymoron as “military intelligence”?

    • Coeur de Lion permalink
      April 26, 2020 9:37 am

      When I was in the Ministry of Defence we used to talk of ‘the jumbo shrimp of military intelligence’ – about as much use as a chocolate teapot’.

    • Gamecock permalink
      April 26, 2020 2:41 pm

      Today’s new oxymoron is “social distancing.”

  2. Curious George permalink
    April 24, 2020 7:38 pm

    I interpret Figure 16-1 differently. In 1940 the Forest Service began fighting all fires and so started the Anthropocenic Era of Fuel Buildup.

  3. Coeur de Lion permalink
    April 24, 2020 7:56 pm

    Sell

  4. Roger Cole permalink
    April 24, 2020 7:58 pm

    In undeserved fairness to the author of this faulty article, wildfire season in the western U.S. has worsened over the past several years, i.e. since 1990 or so, not because of climate change though, malign Green influence on forest management would be far more to the point.

  5. April 24, 2020 9:25 pm

    As climate change contributes to more severe droughts and extreme heat events

    The dust bowl years of the 1930s in the US were a lot worse for heat and drought than anything seen since.

  6. jack broughton permalink
    April 24, 2020 9:32 pm

    Maybe you are missing the point here, truth and fact are unimportant compared with generating fear. They really do not care about honesty as they are saving us all: the great cause.

  7. April 25, 2020 11:33 am

    “Only one of four large regions of the United States showed a significant relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere and the size of floods over the last 100 years. This was in the southwestern region, where floods have become smaller as CO2 has increased.

    I would posit that the added CO2 has boosted the plant growth. This is an area with relatively lower plant cover than most other areas of the country. Thus, added and more robust growth of the vegetation would lessen the severity of floods.

  8. Mike Jackson permalink
    April 25, 2020 5:39 pm

    A bit off topic but this might be worth a read in the broader scope of scientists and “the science”.

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/24/the-importance-of-courage/

  9. MrGrimNasty permalink
    April 25, 2020 5:47 pm

    The GWPF has a story on the problem of grid balancing with uncontrollable unreliables and very low overall demand under our current (esp. industrial) shutdown, so it’s probably just as well we’re into the 3rd day of the UKs entire wind fleet being becalmed (or disconnected?), but with nowhere above 10mph at the moment, I guess it’s the former.

  10. CheshireRed permalink
    April 25, 2020 7:15 pm

    What a cliché-ridden BS-filled ‘mission statement’. Weapons-grade, vomit-inducing twaddle.

  11. CheshireRed permalink
    April 25, 2020 7:17 pm

    Climate campaigners are falling over themselves to link Covid-19 to ‘climate change’.

    There is no link, however abstract, whatsoever. Literally none.

    This abject LIE should be called out every time, loud and clear. DON’T let them get away with this.

    • Broadlands permalink
      April 25, 2020 9:57 pm

      They are also besides themselves about Micheal Moore’s new film that exposes them and their ideas for saving the planet. They are already demanding it be taken down. In denial?

  12. Vanessa Smith permalink
    April 25, 2020 9:35 pm

    It’s probably written by the BBC under a pseudonym !!!! They are desperate to make everyone believe in their lie.

  13. M E permalink
    April 26, 2020 3:46 am

    Marketing. Helping businesses to sell their services. It gives the points to advertisers to bring forward in their advertising in order to look credible.
    They won,t need to look up any other sources .
    It,s excellent marketing. Like “Our new Margarine tastes like Butter to our select panel of housewives.”
    My cynical views from ‘Murder Must Advertise ‘
    D L Sayers. Excellent lockdown reading.

  14. April 26, 2020 1:42 pm

    Judging the level of mass stupidity and apathy is tricky, though it looks to me like we could easily push any insanity and starve and freeze the population with little to no resistance. Only in Michigan did the dictator go too far and anger a sizable crowd. Even then, little progress toward shutting her down is being made. Unless we get an horrific heat wave, I suspect there will be no opposition and the Greens and the market can do whatever it wants with the population. It’s been proven definitively that humans will comment suicide to avoid dying from a scary virus that really wasn’t that deadly nor that scary. The sky is the limit now for the Greens and the communists.
    Plus, demonstrably awful, provably wrong models don’t seem to matter at all and there are no tar and feather parties planned for the lying scum that wrote and promoted them. That clears the way for climate models, which now become fact because everything is fact if no one objects to the designation. Obviously, very few objected. Models are now facts. (And yes, they can be changed every day and still be facts. Again, only if enough object does this matter and people did not do so.)

  15. Gamecock permalink
    April 26, 2020 2:49 pm

    ‘States along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Ocean are highly exposed to hurricanes (Figure 3), and several of these states, such as Louisiana and Florida, also have among the highest numbers of COVID-19 cases to date.’

    AND ?!?!

    What a contrived pile of manure.

    It appears the fine folks in Berkeley don’t know that we get tornadoes every spring here in the southeast. Had three near me last night.

    Also note that in my 70 years in the southeast, the climate hasn’t changed. When she says, “Climate change,” she is lying. There hasn’t been any here.

  16. Derek Reynolds permalink
    April 27, 2020 8:28 am

    Well worth watching before it gets ripped. One hour forty mins.
    https://tinyurl.com/y8hgds29
    ‘The Planet of the Humans’ Michael Moore & Jeff Gibbs.

  17. Kip Hansen permalink
    April 27, 2020 9:00 pm

    The Climate Change/Covid-19 link is an effort spawn by the Columbia Journalism Review and the Guardian (founders of the CliSci news cabal) to make Covid a climate story. Their rallying cry is “Every story a climate story”. They are the antithesis of journalism, intentionally doing propaganda in place of reporting.

    See mine: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/06/22/a-national-narrative-for-media-on-climate-change/

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