GWPF calls for urgent inquiry into rising blackout risk, threatening national security
By Paul Homewood
London, 6 November: The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) is today calling on MPs to start an urgent inquiry into the economic and national security implications of the growing fragility of the UK electricity system.
For two days running, (4th and 5th November), National Grid, UK’s Electricity System Operator has issued System Warnings in the form of an Electricity Margin Notice, alerting the markets to a reduced system margin. In large part this is due to low levels of wind power as a result of a very large high pressure system that covers the whole of the UK, bringing the first frosts of the winter.
At peak load on the 4th of November the UK’s entire transmission connected wind fleet of 18,000 MW in capacity was providing a mere 17% of its possible output (3,000 MW).
The last of the UK’s remaining coal plants stepped in and provided over 2,264 MW of generation, alongside other conventional forms of generation. For a government that claims to be “Powering Past Coal” this is deeply embarrassing.
The UK’s electricity sector is now so fragile that a normal weather event causes it to wilt like a hothouse plant left out in the frost, and the prospects for the future are deeply troubling.
Much of the conventional capacity that has been stabilising the system in the last two days, particularly coal, is scheduled for rapid closure in the drive towards Net Zero. This hasty policy has long looked overambitious, it now appears dangerous as well as ruinously expensive.
The government has become a hostage to renewables industry lobbyists, inside and outside Westminster, and will not spontaneously initiate an inquiry into the threat to energy and national security or admit failure. The GWPF is calling for MPs to initiate their own investigation of the perilous state of the United Kingdom’s electricity system.
Amongst the questions that MPs should be asking are:
1) Why was National Grid caught out by the weather, and how much has their mistake cost consumers?
2) How can we quickly pause and unwind the increasingly dangerous reliance on renewables and wind power?
3) Does the UK have to extend the lives of coal and older gas generators in order to limit the risk of security of supply and control consumer costs?
4) Should the UK create a market that delivers a long-term cost-minimisation strategy for electricity?
Dr John Constable, the GWPF energy editor, said:
The engineering of our electricity industry is a national embarrassment, with National Grid sent into a panic by the first mild frosts of winter, and consumer costs at horrific levels. The renewables policy of the last twenty years is to blame and government must now change course.”
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
Had my eye on a domestic, natural gas, standby generator for a while now.
I think it may be prudent to install it over the coming weeks.
The other issue here is that climate action has to be a well coordinated GLOBAL effort. There is no room here for heroism by individual nation states. It’s global or nothing.
https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/05/22/climate-catch22/
Define global because the Oxford English Dictionary definition of “Global” is NOT part of Paris or any other intentionally ambiguously worded weasel document.
Yes sir. Understood. English can be complicated. In the context of global warming and global climate action the word refers to the whole of the surface of the earth and to all nations on earth respectively.
Very true – there is absolutely no benefit in being a “leader” in reducing emissions. If it has to happen it has to be everyone at once.
Well put. Thank you.
Don’t worry. My local council is gping to save the planet with their climate emergency declaration.
Thank God!
Had an email from Octopus yesterday saying my projected consumption between 16:30 and 20:30 was 1.2 kWh. If I could cut my actual useage to 0.6 I could have it for free. THis is the future.
Presumably somebody else is paying at least twice, and probably way more than that, as much for the electricity you and others haven’t used.
John Constable meantions this:
https://www.thegwpf.com/colder-weather-and-low-winds-expose-uk-electricity-system-weakness/
It would appear that Octopus will be paid by the National Grid for this, as a Demand Reduction scheme. The cost of course will be added to everybody’s bills.
Did Octopus remind you that it charges up to approx 35p/kWh when you consume power during the winter evening peak-periods?
This policy won’t work until the pre-iPhone generation has been euthenased (or frozen to death).
This is incompetence of a monumental scale.
How we got rid of a good, reliable generation and transmission system defies description.
To replace it with something that will kill more people than covid19 and flu togetter.
No, it is not: not if it is all part of the plan.
It is incompetence and wishful thinking by politicians very badly served by their advisors. Advisors who in turn only ever listen to the green blob There is nothing suspicious about it. Well, unless your a conspiracy theory nutjob
Having reliable electricity on demand is no longer considered a necessity.
Frankly the more blackout the better: only then will people understand what is happening.
The most interesting thing is that if you look at current wind energy production in other European countries (Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, France, Germany, Austria, and even as far as Poland, Romania, and Italy), it’s low everywhere, working at 20% of capacity or below. The only exceptions are Spain, Portugal, Sweden, and Finland. Which makes it rather clear that even if there was a EU wide interconnected supergrid, it wouldn’t solve the problem of intermittency, as a few select countries could not possibly install enough wind plants to power the whole continent.
The real issue is perhaps not so much the capacity factor, but the degree of correlation in output. To be able to balance production from one area with another you need the other area to be producing when you are not and vice versa. That means you are looking
for preferably large negative correlations across the geography. I calculated the following cross correlation heatmap using daily summed output for 19 countries across EUrope:
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/6yqhP/2/
It is quite plain that there are very large weather zones where the correlations are significant and positive, and there is no way that you are going to be able to power Northern Europe from the Mediterranean.
Getting any true believer to accept this is virtually impossible even when you show them the data, which is available online, for the countries you’ve listed. I have tried both face to face and online without success.
I charted the data, summarised to daily outputs per country, used in my correlation calculations, in this chart:
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QcA5c/1/
It’s a really spiky performance, highlighting the need for massive transmission and storage capacity to capture peaks, and with alarming and lengthy dips that would require lots of backup capacity. And this is only 2016, so with the addition of lots of capacity the MWh involved will be all the greater – but the underlying spikiness will be much the same, perhaps ameliorated by more and more curtailment.
” … even if there was a EU wide interconnected supergrid …”
There already is one:
https://www.entsoe.eu/data/map/
There won’t be a Blackout risk. The BBC said in their new program, Powering Britain, everything will be OK and they can turn a Wind Farm on whenever they need to.
They didn’t say how we will get the wood pellets here from Carolina when the Earth cools and the sea freezes over.
True: a risk usually means that it might happen, not that it is certain to happen.
Our National energy supply system is an absolute disgrace. As a nation we now have a system that relies on consumers to turn off electrical systems when the wind does not blow and to pay for “non supply” if the wind blows too hard.all concealed in our electricity bills. Meanwhile our MPs do nothing. Nero style in effect “fiddling while Rome burns”
I see the BBC is not reporting this in anyway which can be construed as simply laying out the facts.
Facts and BBC rarely if ever go together especially now they are embroiled in another lying row over the famed Diana interview. In interviews with Sir Cliff Richard he says that the BBC have never apologised for their coverage of the police raid on his house.
Noticed on: https://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
That we are sucking about 4 GW from Europe (11%), wind is only at 3 GW (8%) and fossil fuels are running at nearly 18 GW (48%).
Also noticed that in France they are at the amber level for gas (6.7 GW), which they don’t usually use. French wind is only running at 4 GW. Overall France is exporting 12 GW (although importing 2.2 GW from Spain, so net about 10 GW export).
The beauty of nuclear baseload in action. And the stupidity of relying on “renewables”
Wind dropped to under 1GW, between 2 & 4am. By 8am, coal was generating over 1GW.
If only we had a few million more EVs they would save us from blackouts! Or perhaps not.
Grid connected electric toothbrushes would help solve the problem, surely?
“ This hasty policy has long looked overambitious, it now appears dangerous as well as ruinously expensive.” ….whenever did it not look dangerous and ruinously expensive????
It hardly matters though does it? Our self serving MPs will not listen and they certainly won’t act.
And with Biden looking certain to get the Democrats back in power this whole mess is set to escalate to entirely new levels of madness.
Bodes well for January/February doesn’t it? Shiver me timbers brrrrrr…. Alas, it seems we might need a few extended blackouts to wake up the politicos to the insanity of their fantasy energy policies.
And no one saw this coming.
Shocked, I am.
Put another log on the fire for me…..
That’s Drax’s job, but they convert the logs to wood pellets first and waffle about sustainability.
yes, I was left speechless when a friend proudly showed me his £18k biomass installation (paid by a grant I understand as they run a small business). “Where do the pellets come from?” I enquired, “Eddie Stobart delivers them three times a year in a. gigantic artic” he replied. “Are they produced locally”. Err no, America .words failed me I’m afraid.
We mustn’t forget that ‘emissions control’ (by which they mean carbon dioxide£ is pointless.
These shortfalls happened in the middle of an economic depression caused by the government’s mis-handling of Covid. How much worse will things be if the economy ever recovers to pre Covid levels? Maybe this explains why the government doesn’t care about the long term effects of lockdown, they know that the economy is doomed anyway because of the obsession with cutting emissions.