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No Lizzie, Summer Rainfall Is Not Getting More Extreme

December 8, 2020

By Paul Homewood

 

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55179603

In yesterday’s carefully coordinated BBC/Met Office propaganda piece on climate change, the Met Office’s Lizzie Kendon came out with the well worn tale about extreme rainfall:

 

Summers might not just be hotter, they could be drier too, the Met Office predicts. Summer rain could become less frequent, but when it does rain it is likely to be more intense.

If she took the time to come away from her dodgy climate models and preconceptions and actually studied the real world data, she would discover that she is talking through her hat.

Across England & Wales as a whole, heavy rainfall days used to be much more common in the past. Nothing like the daily rainfall which fell in 1968, 1969 and 1986 have been seen since. There have been twenty one days since 1931 with more than 20mm, but the 21.7mm which fell on 10th June last year is the only such day since 2010.

There is a similar story regionally, with most of the extreme rainfall occurring in the distant past.

 

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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/download.html

Lizzie Kendon is the Met Office’s Scientific Manager, and her work revolves around climate modelling. But there are lots of meteorologists there who must cringe every time rubbish like is published.

43 Comments
  1. Peter Murray permalink
    December 8, 2020 1:48 pm

    Why are these people allowed to publish such rubbish and still keep a Government funded, and probably well paid, job? This whole situation with fake news or even worse, intentional propaganda, is a national disgrace.

    • Nancy & John Hultquist permalink
      December 8, 2020 5:03 pm

      – – – tax payer funded and over paid job – – –

      Fixed it for you. You are welcome!

  2. December 8, 2020 1:48 pm

    “Summers might not just be hotter, they could be drier too, the Met Office predicts. Summer rain could become less frequent, but when it does rain it is likely to be more intense.”

    Weather superstition is surprisingly common believe it or not.

    https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/

  3. JimW permalink
    December 8, 2020 1:50 pm

    Now the vaccine has arrived, some of the psyops resources can go back to ‘climate’.

  4. Harry Passfield permalink
    December 8, 2020 2:01 pm

    I wonder what she means by ‘summers might be hotter’? A lot hotter, or just a degree hotter on average? And why just summers? Surely, if AGW is a global phenomenon then surely, winters would also be ‘hotter’. That being the case then, at the UK’s latitude with the GS the amount of moisture in the air would become rain as usual – only more often. The clouds wouldn’t hang around so that they could deposit one large downpour now and again, surely. And the overall effect would be that the rain would cool the country.

    Anyway, if she qualifies her projection of hotter summers with a ‘might’, maybe the rain only ‘might’ increase. In fact, it ‘might’ even NOT happen at all.

  5. The Informed Consumer permalink
    December 8, 2020 2:10 pm

    Summers might not just be hotter, they could be drier too, the Met Office predicts. Summer rain could become less frequent, but when it does rain it is likely to be more intense.”

    This historic statement, reviewed, today December 2050.

    A spokesman for the organisation known then as the BBC (British Broadcasting Corporation) states:

    “We only said it could, it was a prediction after all, and the term likely was used in it’s broadest terms.

    We didn’t have a crystal ball at the time, and I was only a 16 year old tea boy then anyway. Besides, who the hell thought a Mini Ice age was coming. No one told us CO2 had nothing to do with Earths temperatures. We were just doing what we were told by an organisation called Extinction Rebellion”.

    The BBC was dissolved in 2022 when found to be a coven of Marxist, Common Purpose infiltrators. A newspaper known as the Guardian collapsed shortly thereafter as their customer base also collapsed.

    • The Informed Consumer permalink
      December 8, 2020 2:11 pm

      Drat, screwed up the tags.

      Paul, some help please. Ta.

  6. GeoffB permalink
    December 8, 2020 2:11 pm

    How come, that people with some science qualifications, often have no common sense whatsoever?

    • December 8, 2020 5:14 pm

      Geoff. It has been my experience after 35 years of working as a scientist in the industry I love that : 1. Most people are cowards and see that as a way to “fit in” and indeed rise up the ranks. 2. Follow the money. No one, well, almost no one does anything unless there is personal benefit.

  7. Broadlands permalink
    December 8, 2020 2:15 pm

    “Summers might not just be hotter, they could be drier too, the Met Office predicts. Summer rain could become less frequent, but when it does rain it is likely to be more intense.”

    Are we to understand that a little “intense” rain is all it might take to offset a drought? If so, that should be a good thing, not something to worry about. Please explain Lizzie.

  8. Hereward the Wakeful permalink
    December 8, 2020 2:47 pm

    It’s hard to imagine why these people waste their breath. To say something “might” happen is just as useful as saying it “might not”.

  9. Mack permalink
    December 8, 2020 2:57 pm

    I also enjoyed Dr McCarthy from the MO banging on about the recent ‘unprecedented’ extreme weather, possibly the most over used word in all of climate alarmism. I then settled down to a nice glass of wine and cheered myself up by popping onto the Weatherweb and reading a few historical accounts of what the really extreme weather was like in the 1650s and 1660s in Britain. Now they had some real extremes then in comparison to the rather benign weather of recent years. Wouldnt it be nice if these top ‘scientists’ dragged their heads out of their computers and did a bit of homework for a change, just like our knowledgeable host?

  10. December 8, 2020 3:24 pm

    In response to GeoffB, common sense isn’t very common. And what’s especially encouraging is that wooden tops like this are existing on taxpayers’ generosity for their large salaries and gold plated pensions; distorting the housing market in Exeter and environs.

  11. William Birch permalink
    December 8, 2020 3:56 pm

    What amused me most was that on all the BBC’s hyped up future global warming scenario maps, the UK looked to be amongst the least affected countries on the planet. Yet here we are “leading the pack” to net UK carbon zero, whilst china, India and the rest of the planet except the Crazy EU pay lip service to the whole exercise. Our kids are going curse the day that they ever listened to that “unholy trinity” of Cameron, Glegg and Milliband . There is a massive democratic deficit in that Conservatives, Labour, Liberals and Greens continue on with this net zero policy whilst endeavouring to obscure the true cost that each house hold will literally ave to pay. What we need is a UK National Net Zero referendum based on the true costs.

    • December 8, 2020 4:07 pm

      A referendum is a thing of the past. The people can never again be allowed to make a choice for something with which the metropolitan elite do not agree..

    • John Halstead permalink
      December 8, 2020 6:02 pm

      While UK and EU are beating themselves up with green taxes and other dead weights the Asian countries are much more astute, they are helping their industries to become more efficient with cheap coal energy, so that in a couple of generations our grandchildren will be living in a world dominated by the East. Thanks Milliband, Cameron, Davey et al.

      • December 8, 2020 7:49 pm

        At least they’ll be basking in endless heatwaves 😎, waiting for their consumer goods to be delivered by far-eastern drones.

  12. Alan Haile permalink
    December 8, 2020 4:05 pm

    There is an article in today’s Mail about the new electric charging station in Braintree.
    It says – ‘it is supplied by a solar farm 40 miles away with power stored in a vast battery at the back of the building. It can store enough to power 5000 cars for a year.’
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9028749/ROBERT-HARDMAN-reviews-Britains-electric-forecourt-complete-posh-loos-gym-bikes.html

    Please please do a piece on this article.

  13. Beagle permalink
    December 8, 2020 4:42 pm

    I suspect Autocar have got the right info..The battery can store enough for 26000 miles.

    “In line with the nascent company’s ‘sun-to-wheel’ business model, electricity is generated by solar panels – mounted on the forecourt roof and at an array of partner solar farms – and stored in a 6mWh (6000kWh, or roughly enough for 26,000 miles of EV range) on-site battery, which can balance the grid in peak hours, helping to keep charging costs down.”

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      December 8, 2020 5:50 pm

      One of these can store enough for 400,000 miles!

      https://www.crownoil.co.uk/fuel-tankers-fleet/

    • It doesn't add up... permalink
      December 8, 2020 10:25 pm

      I think that claiming 4.3 miles per kWh for an EV is stretching it. Here’s some real world performance:

      https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/e1ofS/1/

      Nothing better than 3.6 miles/kWh. If you want a vehicle that is actually practical, then expect well under 3miles/kWh.

      Mind you, few petrol cars really manage 50 mpg in practice either (perhaps a Prius?), which is the implication of 400,000 miles from 36,000 litres. Not sure what the maximum load would be in diesel, but it will be less, because it is more dense – perhaps 32,000 litres. Trucks have to stay within maximum payload weights when loaded.

      • MrGrimNasty permalink
        December 9, 2020 6:58 pm

        50 mpg is easy in a modern sensibly sized 5-seater family car, near 100mpg would have been easy within a few years with upcoming ICE development. My 2003 car will do it all day long even ‘urban’. Nothing unrealistic about it at all.Of course not everyone picks sensible cars.

        Focus 60mpg real.
        Octavia 67mpg real.
        Civic 65mpg real.
        208 65mpg real.
        Clio 80mpg real.
        etc.
        etc.

      • MrGrimNasty permalink
        December 9, 2020 7:01 pm

        PS. Prius is 62.5mpg real (claimed 90+mpg) – showing how pointless hybrids are.

  14. Ian Phillips permalink
    December 8, 2020 6:07 pm

    As to “why otherwise intelligent people make statements like this?….” and other similar questions. Well, we do know why. It’s a cocktail of vanity/virtue signalling, groupthink and career preservation. Climate alarmism is well institutionalised…..even the Daily Telegraph has a now daily dose of alarmism…Today it’s peatland as a potential climate threat…..but the team who came up with this then said there was a high degree of uncertainty in their calculations. No, surely not?
    Also demonstrated with David Attenborough, another one of these perfectly intelligent people, and good friend of the late David Bellamy. When Bellamy refused to plug climate change, he and his programme were “cancelled. Attenborough must have seen the writing on the wall….hence the polar bears and walruses, melting glaciers, etc. The road to success, fame and fortune…..keep them sweet!
    No seriously, he’s obviously helping to save our planet…the knighthood, and presumably peerage to follow soon, and is it his name going on a warship? Sorry, I almost forgot…the Nobel Prize very soon now?

  15. Devoncamel permalink
    December 8, 2020 6:10 pm

    I would be interested to know what the viewing figures were for the Panorama programme.
    Can anyone assist?

  16. MrGrimNasty permalink
    December 8, 2020 6:18 pm

    Interesting read.

    https://co2coalition.org/publications/the-global-mean-temperature-anomaly-record/

    Over the last few days, according to climate reanalyzer, the Arctic has cooled substantially (4C or more from memory – as confirmed here too http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php ) but the global anomaly has only fluctuated 0.1C either way.

  17. Ken Pollock permalink
    December 8, 2020 6:34 pm

    Decades ago, Mary Archer spoke at an Institution of Agricultural Engineers conference at the NIAE. She, being an advocate of solar power, talked of covering the roofs of petrol stations with PV cells to generate electricity for the petrol station.
    I asked her for the ratio of the CV of the solar energy recovered via the PV cells on the roof, to the CV of the petrol and diesel dispensed beneath the roof.
    She did not appreciate the question, gave no answer, and left the conference soon after…

  18. December 8, 2020 6:42 pm

    BBC on sex as we get older:

    Sex might not be hot, and it could be drier too, the Met Office predicts. Summer sex could become less frequent, but when it does manage to occur it is likely to be much less intense. Experts say this is because of man-made climate change.

  19. Argiris Diamantis permalink
    December 8, 2020 7:44 pm

    Here some reality that the MSM, like the BBC and CNN, will not report. This is the real news of December, 8, 2020. But the corrupt MSM will never report this.

    Mercury drops to minus 10 in Kalam, Siberian winds hit Karachi
    ISLAMABAD: The mercury dropped to minus 10 degree Celsius after heavy snowfall in Kalam on Tuesday.
    The area received up to two feet of snow, which caused hardships for the citizens. Snowfall was continued in Shagar, Kharmang, Ghanche and other areas of Skardu region since Monday night. The plains in the region received up to two inches of snow, while the upper areas received up to three inches of snow.
    The spell of snowfall affected normal life in the area. The inter-district transport service remained suspended while the vehicles remained trapped at several places.
    “The temperature was dropped to minus 4 Celsius in the plains of Skardu region, while it was gone down to minus seven Celsius in the hilly areas,” the Met Office said.
    Mirpur and adjoining areas of Azad Jammu and Kashmir also received rainfall, which brought the temperature down in the region. Meanwhile, cold Siberian winds from the North and Northeast blew in Karachi to drop the temperature to 15 degree Celsius.
    According to the Met Office, more snowfall is expected in Swat, Kalam, Skardu and other areas of the northern part of the country. The weather in Karachi will remain cold and dry and the maximum temperature will likely remain between 28-30 degree Celsius. Mainly cold and dry weather is expected in most parts of the country while foggy conditions are expected at a few areas of Punjab and upper Sindh. Rain with snowfall over the hills is also expected in Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, Chitral, Dir, Swat, Shangla, Buner, Kohistan, Mansehra and Abbottabad.
    https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2020/12/08/mercury-drops-to-minus-10-in-kalam-siberian-winds-hit-karachi/

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      December 8, 2020 9:16 pm

      There’s no more reason to report colder weather as significant evidence in respect of global warming, than hot. As per the CO2 Coalition link above, any warming is dwarfed by natural variation. The natural state of the world is that usually everywhere is either experiencing a positive or negative ‘anomaly’, it is rarely just ‘normal’ in anyone place for long, but the pattern is constantly changing. You can see that here:

      https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom

      That’s why the climate fraudsters can mendaciously spin a narrative of never ending heat events. They just ambulance chase the shifting hot spots, aka weather, around the world.

      You could do the same with the cold weather if you wanted to create the impression the earth was tuning back into a snowball!

  20. tom0mason permalink
    December 9, 2020 3:00 am

    Dear Lizzie Kendon,
    You are so off the mark!
    So far from the point that I am willing to wager my entire net worth (as a poor pensioner) against your net worth (for the next ten years) because not only are you wrong for with the historical details but also for your future predictions.
    Within the next 10 years weather trends will be turning cooler and continue that as a long term trend at least to 2050. I’m saying you (Lizzie Kendon) are very wrong!
    As you (Lizzie Kendon) have shown yourself as nothing but another political AGW advocate, spinning sophistry and emotional nonsense, with no real understanding of weather patterns, you will also probably exhibit a cowardly streak in not taking me up on this — but I stand by this wager, that you are hopelessly wrong! You, Lizzie Kendon, waste my taxes promulgate nothing but falsehoods, lies and deceit!

    • December 9, 2020 8:16 am

      As another impecunious pensioner, well said Sir! You might also recall a time when state employees could generally be trusted to tell the truth and act as public servants; rather than their current attitude of treating us like dribbling cretins who need to be told what to do whilst sucking up our tax payments to fund their unscientific fantasies?

  21. John Peter permalink
    December 9, 2020 8:44 am

    We are in a situation where we are waiting for the ‘bridge’ to collapse. Structural engineers know from experience that if their calculations are wrong, or the work defective, the bridge will collapse – it is a matter of time and loading.
    With climate change the clock is also ticking. The point will arrive when the grid will close through lack of dispatch-able energy. More wind turbines and solar and less gas and nuclear plus zero coal. It is a matter of time as more heating and transport is converted to electric power usage. In a few years a high pressure area lasting 1-2 weeks in January with cloud, fog and frost day and night will do the job. Then we will see how Joe Public and the media will react. That will be the tipping point and the road back to dispatch-able energy will be long and painful. Hopefully it will not happen in my time.

  22. MrGrimNasty permalink
    December 9, 2020 9:07 am

    Laugh or cry? BBC says CCC says cost is negligible!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-55237821

    LIARS.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      December 9, 2020 9:52 am

      Or just wilfully blind. How can the cost not be vast? Replacing pretty much the entire energy infrastructure must cost hundreds of billions. Replacing energy assets such as boilers and cars must cost hundreds of billions. And because we are replacing much of it before it is obsolete or unusable those are real costs. And as the replacements are less effecient they are more expensive to run. Which must cost tens of billions a year which means hundreds of billions over their lives.

      You don’t need detailed analysis. It must cost trillions in total.

  23. Phoenix44 permalink
    December 9, 2020 9:43 am

    It is a recurring theme in much of science that the real world just doesn’t matter. It’s the virtual world where science happens now, whether it’s the bizarre pseudoscience of Gender Studies or the models of climatologists and epidemiologists.

  24. Coeur de Lion permalink
    December 9, 2020 9:57 am

    Is there a reader from the Met Office on this thread who could tell us something about the MO’s motivation? Is it a quest for media coverage to justify taxpayer money? Self-aggrandisement? Ideological support for the CO2 scam? We need to know as our taxes drain away. Btw do check out the MO’s Climate Change pages on their website. Oh dear.
    I still resent after all these years that Dame Slingo never bothered to answer my letter.

  25. mjr permalink
    December 9, 2020 11:09 am

    just watched the panorama. Some observations .
    full of “ifs” “coulds” “one of the worst…..” “extreme”.
    floods – full of tear jerking scenes – old man in flood etc, family disruption.
    (of course i remember the past when every summer was nice and warm and not too hot, and no heavy rain, and when winters had a little bit if snow. 1963 and 1976 were particularly non eventful pleasant years ).
    interesting the bit on the bar owner in hebden bridge which showed a flood marker with a 1940s flood (so it has always flooded?).
    Also noticed different baseline years for different prognostications. You dont think they are being particularly selective to get the right answer? .
    also mentioned that thousands of home being built on flood plains. but if they flood it is because of climate change?
    also mentioned coastal erosion (which of course has happened for centuries) which apparently is so much worse now due to more storms? sure there is an issue here for homeowners that needs sorting but this is not a climate change issue.
    May had longest dry period on record. but hey arent we supposed to be getting more rain? and the moorland fires… never had them before have we.
    Then people in the heatwave. working from homes which overheat. bad building design. apparently hot homes can affect health. All those poor spaniards and greeks. This might be an issue but it is not climate change!.
    They even brought up Whaley Bridge again. due to weather events (and not lack of maintenance??) well that is what the man from the canal trust responsible for maintenance says.
    Then Rowlatt admits that a single weather event cannot be put down to climate change… but…
    Even the scotland train derailment they are trying to put down to heavy rain and climate change (according to the rail company’s chaplain! (who knew one of the fatalities))
    And back to the flood victims.
    And finally all countries including China now committing to net zero . China? really?

    conclusion .. what a load of usual BBC shite

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      December 9, 2020 7:06 pm

      The Chinese net-zero by 2060 promise:

      Imagine if in 1980 someone had promised to do something by 2020 – now.

      Would either original party still be alive/responsible, would it be relevant or even possible to deliver or enforce, would anyone care?

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