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Climate change: Thousands of people in the UK have already died because of global warming

May 31, 2021

By Paul Homewood

h/t Graham Worthington



This quite simply is fraud:




Well over 5,500 people in the UK have died from heat-related deaths as a result of climate change in less than three decades, according to a new study.

Researchers estimate that one in three deaths in which heat has played a role can be attributed to global warming, which has increased the underlying temperature by 1C since the industrial revolution.

Researchers estimate that 82 people a year in London died from climate-change heat between 1991 and 2018 – giving a total of 2,214 deaths over 27 years.

Meanwhile, the West Midlands had 20 such deaths a year, Manchester 16, and Bristol and Liverpool 4 each, according to a global study by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

This included analysis of the death statistics for the 70 UK populations greater than 100,000 – and found that they have collectively seen 211 climate change heat deaths a year over the 27 years.

This makes a total of 5,697 for the period, with the true number across the whole country likely to be much higher. 


Even if the claims of heat-related deaths is correct, there is no mention in the article or the press release whatsoever about the number of cold-related deaths, which number in the tens of thousands each year.


Figure 1 The five-year moving average increased for the third consecutive year


And significantly the senior author, Antonio Gasparrini, himself confirmed that cold kills more than heat throughout the world in another paper back in 2015:





So why does this new study not show how many other lives might be saved from a warmer climate?


The new lot of claims about heat-related deaths are in any case junk. In the UK, for instance, they claim 5500 deaths over three decades, just 183 a year. Are they really saying they can state this figure with any degree of certainty when about 600,000 die every year? Of course not.

Needless to say their numbers are the product of computer models, which have no relation with reality.

But the long list of funders, including the NERC and the EU Horizon Project  no doubt got the headlines they wanted.

  1. May 31, 2021 6:40 pm

    Researchers estimate…

    There’s your problem.

  2. Joe Public permalink
    May 31, 2021 6:44 pm

    Thousands in the UK have been saved from being victims of Excess Winter Mortality thanks to Global Warming.

  3. bluecat57 permalink
    May 31, 2021 6:47 pm

    Is that WITH global warming, or FROM?

    • ianprsy permalink
      June 1, 2021 10:36 am

      Nice one!

    • June 1, 2021 12:02 pm

      It’s dying within 28 days of a positive test for global warming.

      • 01 Cat permalink
        June 1, 2021 2:18 pm

        Even if you were actually run over by a double-decker bus!

  4. Phoenix44 permalink
    May 31, 2021 6:56 pm

    If temperatures increased over that period why would the number of deaths per year stay the same?

    The 1 in 3 is a total and utter guess, shameless propoganda. it could just as easily be zero.

    This is the worst claim I have ever seen.

  5. Tony permalink
    May 31, 2021 7:11 pm

    The Telegraph online is headlining with this nonsense today with no comments invited. I wonder why?

  6. Cheshire Red permalink
    May 31, 2021 7:17 pm

    Make It Up As You Go Along To Get The Result You Want.

    Just add several large bags of cash to the lead authors bank account and he’ll oblige you with whatever screaming conclusions you want. (Write your own headline to scare your given target audience!)

    On the back of this carp we’re trying to squander untold billions. Madness.

  7. Colin R Brooks AKA Dung permalink
    May 31, 2021 7:41 pm

    The biggest problem is politicians, not just scientists:

    Scientists tell politicians that measurements of CO2 taken half way up a volcano in Hawaii give an accurate figure for CO2 all over the globe, politicians believe them.
    Scientists tell politicians that an ever diminishing number of weather stations give an accurate figure for global average temp without ever defining what global average temp IS. Politicians believe them even when the figures keep being adjusted.
    Scientists tell us that the effect of rising average temp is greatest at the poles and least at the equator, then they use the headline figure when talking to politicians but are not questioned.
    A satelite was launched by Japan with a great fanfare to show how CO2 was distributed around the global atmosphere. It showed heaviest concentrations over Africa, South America and Australia and the Northern industrial countries had the lowest concentrations. The results were removed from public view very quickly, Scientists did not think to inform politicians and politicians never think about anything.

    • Adam Gallon permalink
      June 1, 2021 2:51 pm

      Top of a volcano & they match the readings taken taken elsewhere in the world. So, that old canard isn’t one to rely on.
      The results of the satellite measurements are still there.
      So, don’t rely on that canard either.

  8. Harry Passfield permalink
    May 31, 2021 7:44 pm

    This is true: Donkey’s years’ ago (1972 on an ICL 1900 with paper-tape input – took 45 minutes to run) I was studying computer science and, for my exams, had to write six computer programmes in Fortran, two of which went towards my results.
    My #2 prog was an analysis of the results of last 20 years of the then 92 football league teams. Once this was completed I wrote my #1 programme which, using the results of the analysis, would – fingers crossed – predict the results of the coming year’s fixtures – for the Pools.
    I guess I had too many ‘coulda’, ‘shoulda’, ‘woulda’, ‘maybe’ variables in it. At least I won £1:50 (FIVE pints of beer then!!) in the season!! My grandson is likely to lose a lot more.

    Great memory!! 🙂

  9. Cheshire Red permalink
    May 31, 2021 7:49 pm

    The Guardian are obviously pumping this for all they’re worth. Prominent coverage on their home page.

    ‘Human-induced global heating ‘causes over a third of heat deaths’
    ‘Between 1991 and 2018, human activity contributed to 37% of all heat-related deaths in locations studied’

    Note the searing red sky with a jet in it. No picture editorial bias there, oh no.

    • REM permalink
      June 1, 2021 10:38 am

      The Times has it too. They have been at grauniad level for some time.

    • June 1, 2021 12:01 pm

      Presumably the answer is to subsidise air conditioners?

  10. johnbillscott permalink
    May 31, 2021 8:02 pm

    I wonder if they actually have death certificates stating the cause of death or is it just guess. What about co-morbidities? How a 1 degree C was critical is a bit of a stretch.

    • Vic Hanby permalink
      June 1, 2021 2:57 pm

      It’s just a widely-used statistical correlation (for both ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ deaths, so there’s no basis whatever for attributing causation.

  11. Penda100 permalink
    May 31, 2021 8:04 pm

    Possibly one positive to take from this rubbish is that if the warmists are reduced to this level of “science” and false analysis, with opinions masquerading as facts, they really must be getting desperate. Sadly there’s probably a lot more like this in the propaganda mill.

  12. Robert Jones permalink
    May 31, 2021 8:30 pm

    What is the useless (and expensive) Climate Change Committee doing to counter these ridiculous studies? The CCC has a duty to inform the Government about groundless scare stories, particularly with COP in Glasgow looming?

    • dennisambler permalink
      June 1, 2021 9:48 am

      Stories like this are because of the looming COP 26 in Glasgow. CCC will not counter anything
      like this, they welcome these stories to “validate” their own claims.

  13. Nancy & John Hultquist permalink
    May 31, 2021 9:00 pm

    I think I’ve seen that the UK has an ageing population — people passing age 65.
    Therefore, one might discover more old people die from heat because they don’t strip down and run through water from sprinklers as do those under 16.
    Researchers have to consider alternatives to their favored hypotheses.
    Of course they should have good data and know how to handle it.
    Seems there really isn’t anything that needs explaining.

    • Stuart Brown permalink
      May 31, 2021 9:55 pm

      OK, I’m only 64, and today I would have loved to strip off and run through sprinklers, because it was 22C in the UK Midlands and therefore HOT! (anything over 20C in the UK is a dangerous heatwave, obviously, but anyone observing me doing this would have needed counselling.) It’s promising to be hotter tomorrow, but summer will be over by the end of the week so we may all just survive.

  14. Mad Mike permalink
    May 31, 2021 9:12 pm

    A 1degree C since the industrial revolution? Are they kidding? Is mankind so fragile that we can’t cope with a 1 degree change over a couple of hundred years? I’m surprised that the editor that sanctioned this article didn’t die laughing.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      June 1, 2021 9:47 am

      But that’s obviously not what kills people. The highest temperatures in the UK are far below temperatures in say Arizona. People from the UK regularly go on holiday to southern Spain or Greece where it’s much hotter – but don’t die.

      Temperature does not kill you.

  15. mikewaite permalink
    May 31, 2021 9:26 pm

    Gasparini has published several papers on temperature and mortality. One previous paper that I saw was this :
    “Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study”
    From the paper(open access):

    We analysed 74 225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43–7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80–90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02–7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39–0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84–0·87) of total mortality.
    Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios.
    UK Medical Research Council.”-
    Later he co authored a large modelling study of the effect of different RCP on the cold and heat related mortalities which predicted that even RCP 8.5 gave overall benefits in some climes and that a 1.5C increase had a resultant positive benefit to citizens of almost every country and climatic zone.

  16. cookers52 permalink
    May 31, 2021 9:36 pm

    Perhaps the people died of heat stroke on holiday in Spain?

    Of course the Spanish died out years ago due to the heat, but strangely they all looked pretty okay last time I was there.

    • Graeme No.3 permalink
      May 31, 2021 11:13 pm

      There has been quite a lot of people from the UK emigrating to Australia over the last 200 years.
      Some millions in fact. Surprisingly it hasn’t been noticed that they don’t drop dead on
      encountering the higher Australian temperatures; obviously there is a need for an estimate
      followed by an article in The Guardian etc.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      June 1, 2021 9:49 am

      And Arizona has thousands of deaths every day when its hitter than the UK. Right?

  17. MrGrimNasty permalink
    May 31, 2021 9:58 pm

    The Climate Change obsessed Argus inadvertently captured sense and stupidity in Sussex today.

    The metal shed with a chimney is rated at 420MW and burns gas cleanly. It was sited at an existing connection to the grid in an industrial port area and can produce that power reliably.

    Offshore, not far from there, is the 400MW rated Rampion wind farm that desecrates the seascape over a massive area and produces nothing like that nameplate power randomly. It involved months of noisy piling works, building and servicing by ships, and many km of new cabling etc. including nearly 30km buried mostly through countryside.

    • dennisambler permalink
      June 1, 2021 9:50 am

      And was out of action for about 4 months last year because of cable problems.

  18. Mack permalink
    May 31, 2021 10:39 pm

    I’ll see the author of this study’s 5,500 ‘global warming’ deaths over 30 years and raise him the 26,500 excess winter deaths from ‘global cooling’ in just one year in the U.K. in 2019/20 (before Covid cured influenza and pneumonia!). Figures are from the Office of National Statistics. Ergo, warmth is good, cold isn’t.

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      May 31, 2021 11:48 pm

      ONS stats show plenty of flu and non-covid pneumonia involved deaths, but few label it as the primary cause. i.e. masks etc. certainly have not prevented a flu season as often claimed.

      But nearly every death with covid involved – it was the primary cause – whodathunkit!

  19. markl permalink
    May 31, 2021 10:56 pm

    Propaganda bought and paid for.

  20. Gamecock permalink
    June 1, 2021 12:11 am

    ‘Researchers estimate that one in three deaths in which heat has played a role can be attributed to global warming, which has increased the underlying temperature by 1C since the industrial revolution.’

    Killed by 1 degree. Meanwhile, a thousand miles to the south, people are living with 20C higher temperatures.

    Agree with johnbillscott. We need a list of their names. Without names, it didn’t happen. Hypothetical deaths should produce hypothetical concern.

  21. MrGrimNasty permalink
    June 1, 2021 9:07 am

    And yet they plough on with insane ‘solutions’ to illusory problems.

  22. Thomas Carr permalink
    June 1, 2021 10:57 am

    Again in The Times today . 3 columns from Ben Webster “Environmental Editor”. Page 6 . High time that a briefing dossier was established. Copies to be sent to Ben and his editor and all the others who are willing participants to the fraud, setting out the facts, the source of the facts and the authority which is the basis of the facts. Alternatively we can continue with this collective exasperation and cynicism. PS Somewhere I read lately that it is proposed to erect on a university campus a statue to Greta. Estim cost £12,000.

  23. Devoncamel permalink
    June 1, 2021 11:50 am

    So a quick bit of arithmetic shows 0.03% of deaths were attributable to warming. Where’s the fire?

  24. Douglas Brodie permalink
    June 1, 2021 12:27 pm

    This matches exactly the nonsensical alarmist narrative described by Ross Clark in his excellent satirical novel on climate change “The Denial”, well worth reading at only 0.99p.

  25. Paul R permalink
    June 1, 2021 1:10 pm

    Paul, slightly OT but this story would seem ripe for your treatment – it was also on BBC Wales news this morning, with the usual complete lack of critical analysis

  26. MrGrimNasty permalink
    June 1, 2021 1:24 pm

    Met Office says May 2021 mean CET was ranked joint 59-63 coldest of 363 years, with an anomaly of -0.6C (1961/1990).

    March warmth cancelled April cold, meaning Spring was ranked a very ordinary joint 131 ‘coldest’ overall.

    The storm which gave (me anyway) 36hrs of 50-60mph winds – did as much windburn damage (no pears this year) as I’ve seen in Spring for many a year – was unusual.

  27. MrGrimNasty permalink
    June 1, 2021 1:34 pm

    Picked up and questioned here too.

  28. Ulric Lyons permalink
    June 1, 2021 1:39 pm

    Most of our heatwaves are discretely forced by faster solar coronal hole streams, they cause climate change. The heat of early last August and early September had the fastest coronal hole streams for a year. While this April they were slow of fizzled out.

    • Ulric Lyons permalink
      June 1, 2021 1:40 pm

      … or fizzled out.

  29. Shoki Kaneda permalink
    June 1, 2021 2:20 pm

    Even if this lie were true, it is nothing compared to those who will perish in the coming cold and energy shortages.

    • Jordan permalink
      June 1, 2021 8:02 pm

      Cold and energy shortages can also give rise to life. Born in late 1963, I understand that I am an example of this phenomenon.

  30. June 7, 2021 2:30 am

    The antinuclear pseudoscience of the 1980s just now caused people to freeze to death for lack of electric power. It’s Atlas Shrugged all over again.

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