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New Study Proves Atlantic Hurricanes Were Just As Frequent In The Past

July 26, 2021

By Paul Homewood



Researchers affiliated with several institutions in the United States has determined that the increase in the number of hurricanes forming in the Atlantic over the past several years is not related to global warming. They suggest instead, in their paper published in the journal Nature Communications, that it is simply reflective of natural variable weather patterns.

Over the past several decades, scientists studying satellite data have found that the number of hurricanes forming in the Atlantic Ocean has been increasing. Many in the field have suggested that this is due to the impact of global warming. A warming ocean, they note would naturally lead to more active atmospheric activity. The problem with such thinking, the researchers from this new effort note, is that satellite data only goes back to 1972. Prior to that date, data on hurricane frequency tended to come from eyewitness accounts, which left out many hurricanes that never touched land. In this new study, the researchers went back to the old record books to learn more about the frequency of hurricanes prior to satellites.

The old-time data stretched as far back as 1851 and came courtesy of records kept by workers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The workers had collected the data from eyewitnesses across the eastern seaboard, along the Gulf of Mexico, islands in the Atlantic and fishermen venturing out to sea. The researchers then calculated the ratios of hurricanes that never came ashore in modern times to those that did, and worked backwards using modern data along with math techniques to estimate the number of hurricanes going back to 1860 that were never recorded. They then plotted those numbers on a timeline.

Researchers found no evidence on the timeline of larger than normal numbers of hurricanes forming over the past few decades—instead, it showed that the numbers were on par with prior spikes in the late 1940s and early 1880s. They also found no evidence indicating that modern hurricanes are any more powerful than those in the past.


It is worth pointing out that Gabriel Vecchi and the other authors are highly experienced hurricane experts, not clowns like Michael Mann who knows nothing about hurricanes but still pontificates about them.


Without wishing to brag (!), my scientific paper for GWPF came to similar conclusions:




Unfortunately, the BBC and the rest of the media will continue to ignore the facts and publicise the fake claims of the clowns.

  1. July 26, 2021 3:19 pm

    Hurricanes are tropical cyclones in just one cyclone basin, the north atlantic basin. According to climate science no single basin can provide evidence of the effect of global warming. All 6 basins must be included in the study. See Knutson et al 2010.

    Also this

  2. Gamecock permalink
    July 26, 2021 4:14 pm

    ‘A warming ocean, they note would naturally lead to more active atmospheric activity.’

    I repeat ad nauseam: the north Atlantic basin gets warm enough to support hurricanes every year. It is weather conditions that create, build, and move hurricanes. A ‘warming ocean’ (sic) adds nothing.

    I’ll say it another way: ocean temperature is not a limiting factor on hurricanes.

  3. July 26, 2021 6:47 pm

    Chris Landsea’s graphic always comes in handy.

    • Duker permalink
      July 27, 2021 5:20 am

      The peak speeds are also estimated from satellite images….in nice colours too, so whether it was a low level hurricane at all is open to some doubt. But now that all big tropical storms get names the ‘anthropocene’ has won the media debate.

    • Chaswarnertoo permalink
      July 27, 2021 7:00 am

      Look at all those extra hurricanes! That were never previously recorded….

  4. July 27, 2021 12:46 pm

    When I was working on my MA in plant taxonomy/ecology at The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in the late 1960’s, I did a paper on the Outer Banks for a class to my major professor. As barrier islands, the Outer Banks have been all over the place with storms rearranging them over and over and ….. One publication I used had a map of hurricane tracks over the Outer Banks going back several hundred years. It looked like a plate of spaghetti.

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