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German Floods Update

August 5, 2021
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By Paul Homewood

 

 

Thanks to Tony Heller, we have a bit more detail from the WMO on the amount of rain that fell during the German floods last month:

 

 

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https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/summer-of-extremes-floods-heat-and-fire

This is consistent with my original source, which quoted:

 

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https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2021/07/18/the-real-reason-for-germanys-flood-disaster-a-monumental-failure-of-the-warning-system/

 

The idea that four or five inches of rain in a day is somehow exceptional is ridiculous. As I pointed out at the time, the 24-hour record in Germany stands at 353 mm. In September 1968, 200mm fell in just one hour in Miltzow.

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https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/national-24hour-precipitation-records.html

As the WMO map highlights, the area principally affected was tiny. Unfortunately the rain fell on the wrong place at the wrong time. But global warming had nothing at all to do with it.

Soil moisture, top layer

14 Comments
  1. August 5, 2021 10:37 pm

    Paul typo : “on the wrong place at the wrong place. ”
    probably “on the wrong place at the wrong TIME”.

  2. August 5, 2021 10:40 pm

    Stationary weather systems can be bad news. But this proves nothing in terms of attribution of causes.

    • Duker permalink
      August 6, 2021 1:50 am

      Its a sort of common occurrence across Europe in summer every 5 years or so. One year it will be Paris drainage basin, another time the Vistula for Warsaw or the Elbe River another time.
      Maybe we can have like they do for ‘excess deaths’ in a year , to see if there is a consistent annual rainfall ‘excess’ in a set of standard locations across Germany or France.

      • Up2snuff permalink
        August 6, 2021 10:20 am

        In a strange coincidence, Duker, the BBC Book at Bedtime, last week and this, is Still Life by Sarah Winman. The book is largely set in Florence and this week one of the 15 minute episodes featured heavy rain and floods in that city in the 1960s.

  3. Ian Wilson permalink
    August 6, 2021 8:39 am

    On a cycling holiday in Bavaria a few years ago we visited a limestone gorge near Oldenburg. A flood-water plaque from, I think 2006, must have been a good 20 feet above the path. It’s obviously highly prone to flash floods. Not really pertinent to the post, but I have often wondered how they clear people from the gorge when there’s a storm above – do they send a runner down the gorge urging visitors ton evacuate?

  4. Martin Brumby permalink
    August 6, 2021 8:58 am

    Lets not forget the Beeb’s brave early attempt to big up this tragic flood, into a trans- continental mega flood stretching allegedly from Holland to Rize in Turkey.

    Yesterday, it was a shortage of construction timber that was ‘obviously’ due to climate change with forests across the globe aflame with wildfires.

    Either I missed the reports of Scandinavia being ablaze or we’ve started importing construction timber from California and Cyprus.

    Desperation?

  5. Martin Brumby permalink
    August 6, 2021 8:59 am

    Not a duplicate?

    Lets not forget the Beeb’s brave early attempt to big up this tragic flood, into a trans- continental mega flood stretching allegedly from Holland to Rize in Turkey.

    Yesterday, it was a shortage of construction timber that was ‘obviously’ due to climate change with forests across the globe aflame with wildfires.

    Either I missed the reports of Scandinavia being ablaze or we’ve started importing construction timber from California and Cyprus.

    Desperation?

  6. mjr permalink
    August 6, 2021 9:18 am

    Just listened to BBC More or Less from 31st july “Breaking Climate Records”. An unbiased BBC man talking to an unbiased Met Office man .. Not !!!………. enjoy

  7. cookers52 permalink
    August 6, 2021 9:53 am

    This will happen in the UK sooner or later. The planning system has allowed large developments adjacent to small watercourses.
    Only very recently has the risk of flash flooding been recognised in the planning process and huge balancing and attenuation lakes have appeared on new developments.
    On older developments the flood water just flows through houses.

  8. Up2snuff permalink
    August 6, 2021 10:12 am

    Pul, I think some of the heavy rain did not fall on Germany but Switzerland where the Rhine rises. Do I recall correctly that in both countries the Rhine flows through steep valleys?

    • Up2snuff permalink
      August 6, 2021 10:13 am

      My proof reader has been sacked, Paul. 😉 Apologies!

  9. Jack Broughton permalink
    August 6, 2021 10:14 am

    I switched on Radio 4 this morning: a big mistake, there were two “scientists” terrifying the poor woman presenter with tales of how the Gulf Stream would stop and we’d all die, as climate change altered the AMO, they then said that they needed more modelling time. The lady clearly did not understand the difference between fact and fiction (i.e. models against the real-climate). The radio survived, I found it innocent and switched stations quickly.

    Maybe one for the Conservative Women?

  10. Brian Smith permalink
    August 6, 2021 12:06 pm

    Mixing inches and millimetres is unhelpful; one or the other would be better. 🙂

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