Extreme Temperatures?
August 25, 2021
By Paul Homewood
If anybody thinks the British climate is changing, they should mail their brains to Brains4Us and ask for a refund!
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_act_graphEX.gif
There is no runaway warming, no extreme temperatures and we aren’t about to turn into the South of France. There is just the same old weather we have always had in the past.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
How very disappointing. I thought we were special – after all, the media has been telling us that for so long…Maybe everywhere else is suffering an “emergency” and we are the only ones not to – but don’t tell XR! (sarc)
There are reports that the National Trust will be putting staff on “Mediterranean hours” to allow them to have a siesta to stay out of the extreme heat!
https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/uk-news/tourism-climate-change-national-trust-b1907958.html
That’s because they’re too mean to put proper ventilation systems in their old buildings — I suggest.
I’m not sure they would be permitted to install ventilation systems in Grade 1* Listed buildings for the 3days a year it gets a bit warm!
They must have some plug-in fans?
I tried copying that graph to The Times but it’s been censored.
A depressingly common outcome if the facts don’t fit the narrative.
The Times mods can censorious
Sometimes my comments come out of moderation after 3 days
but of course everyone has moved on by then.
As we know, only some massive upheaval – plate tectonics and UK shifting south might oblige the warmist loonies. Aw, thus, otherwise folks, sure it will get hot – occasional plumes from the Sahara and frigid iciness from the Arctic but most of the time it is mild, wet, windy, cool and temperate. Indeed at 52º + N we’re darned lucky to have the NAD coming our way oh and the coriolis, earth spin, axial tilt and the SUN. There is no noise, no signal of any warming – just normal and natural variation, period.
Gloom goblins in hell……. Why we have to suffer the snivel serpents rune readers – modellers in the Met office, surely it is time to defund that bunch of alarmist nescient cretins, Good grief, ooh wait copfest 26 coming up – cue the government shrieks ‘we need you to do the dance and bang the drum of climate hyperbole!!’ Tine creeps on, again and again and again, background
climate muzakpropaganda.I like that “Gloom Goblins” tag. I can think of appropriate places to use it.
That’s quite a persuasive graph actually (against panic). I don’t buy the idea that 17 year or 30 year trends can be classed as climate, it’s weather. If there was a clearly defined trend for 100 to 200 years I might start entertaining the idea but I haven’t seen one.
So what are the Met Office up to with this graphic
“So what are the Met Office up to with this graphic”
Making sure they are not accused of providing false data when CAGW is found to be wrong, so they slip little snippets of truth among all the lies & falsifications.
30 year averages are defined as “Normals”; that is, they provide — for an adult — something to compare current weather against.
So defined in 1935, I think, by international agreement.
Climate is altogether a different concept.
I’m not referring to normals John, Ben Santer said he could detect climate signals with 17 years data. Phil Jones said ‘if the pause continues another 2 years’ he would reconsider what’s happening.
Yes but as the graph shows and I’ve arguing for a while, adults don’t compare a single point against an average, let alone an average that has high variability. It’s hugely misleading to do so. In the UK virtually every measurement of virtually everything is above or below average. The question should be: has this occurred before and if so how frequently? Or compare the averages of two similar length periods where you believe there was a change that altered the average. What’s happening now would be censured by financial authorities were it to be provided as investment advice.
Brilliant data, but is it copyright or am I allowed to print it out to send to some activist acquaintances?
“All information originating from the Met Office is subject to Crown Copyright. The Keeper of Public Records has authorised the Met Office to license the use and reuse of its own information, subject to certain conditions. ”
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/legal
BUT
“The Met Office is *committed to openness* and transparency in the conduct of its operations and to **the sharing of information**. ”
Note- Met Office is part of government, the government operates on money from us via taxes, therefore ALL Met Office data is paid for & owned by us & open data is ours to use.
Thanks for the explanation.
That is to misunderstand copyright. Copyright prevents you making money from copyrighted material, not distributing a copy of it for free to a small group for information purposes only.
I think reproducing it on the internet might go beyond the “small group” definition. Paul might well get away with it as “fair use” and because there is a general interest in the subject as it affects everyone. Beyond that (eg if I reproduced this post, complete with graph, on my blog) we’re in the well-known “grey area”.
“Met Office reveals data from the longest running temperature series on the planet that proves unquestionably that there is no UK climate emergency. Activist scientists and NGOs weep”, says the BBC, never.
We have one of few really nice days so far this August in my corner of Surrey. I hope it stays like this for the Bank Holiday but I hardly think it will send this month into the top ten warmest Augusts.
There was a discussion the other day on WUWT which included a couple of comments on the signs of autumn. Somebody commented that, August or not, the swallows had already upped and left which sent me looking through my own record books. (For the middle of France rather than Central England but relevant.)
Our swallows have also left — a good 10 days earlier than normal. The storks, which the local press keeps a photographic eye on every year, have arrived in the neighbouring commune — at least two weeks early. The starlings have started their annual conference season in our fir trees — usual date, according to ‘er indoors’ meticulous records, around Sept 15! Last night’s minimum was 11.5° which is the second lowest for this week since records began (which in my case was 11 years ago!).
Of course we know this is all weather but in a farming community like this when someone says “I don’t care if the weekend forecast is for 32°,autumn is here now”, then you listen!
In Anglesey N Wales, swallows are still here ( Aug 28th) but are feeding like mad … ready to go in the next few days.
It is extreme, I have just put the heating on
I live right in the middle of central England, I have not seen the sun for days.
cookers, did you not read the memo? It is Scotland’s turn to have a good summer.
22C and sunny in Galloway today 😎
oldbrew:
I was in Scotland in late August 1977 & I remember 3 sunny days on the SW coast, esp. the day I went to see Caerlaverock castle. It was the warmest weather I struck in the UK over 4 months.
Oldbrew, had a lovely morning on the beach in a little cove near Portpatrick this morning. Such a novelty to actually have a proper summer in this part of the world. Normally, winter and spring just collide in to autumn, and summer gets a pass. All the locals know that the ‘weather’, not the ‘climate’, will return to normal next year and it’ll probably be mild, grey and miserable as per usual but they are extremely grateful for any sustained sunny breaks. Having said that, after a couple of weeks with no rain, the farmers start to get a tad grumpy, but you can’t please everybody can you?
I have always thought that in order to keep both farmers and the public happy would be to have 15mm rain every Sunday night.
“Caerlaverock Castle”: go in Spring and it seems to float on a sea of bluebells. Or at least it did when I was young. Soon, no doubt, it’ll find itself in an olive grove.
It’s 19C and bright sunshine today. The climate emergency is in full swing in Scotland. The bairns will forget what snow is, unless we get a decent blizzard within the next few days.
Scotland has ‘sploded all its coal fired power stations, whereas England still has West Burton and Ratcliffe. If the Just Transition has any meaning whatsoever, the climate emergency we are presently suffering in Scotland will move on to England very soon.
Summer overall in the CET will be at the warmer end of the scale, in the top 10-15% at a guess, but certainly no record breaker.
Only because of a few short spells of very hot weather.
Not really true, the warmer side of things was sustained in 2 spells in June and July, and anyway, the ups/downs/extremes are what makes the average for every season every year. August will turn out only slightly warmer than usual, it didn’t need to be anywhere near a record for August to give us the hottest summer in the CET ‘evah’. It has undeniably been a very warm summer in the CET. But it is also undeniably completely normal!
MrGrimNasty, Sir! “August will turn out only slightly warmer than usual”
August has been colder than usual down in the south-east of England – and I gather in East Anglia and the east Midlands – and really for nearly a year now, temperatures have been below normal. I look back to Easter 2020 and the May Bank Holidays under Lockdown with some nostalgia.
Up2snuff, Aug CET is currently +0.6C, warmer than ‘normal’.
Last few days do not look like this trend will change massively.
Because of the way it is calculated it may drop a few tenths C, but odds on it will end up +’ve.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
Paul, I was please to see the above graph as it illustrates my concern regarding how the IPCC is reporting the global temperature trend. Given my concerns ie mailed the people at NASA responsible for the GISS data set to ask how they produced an average temperature data point for each of 14,400 data points to cover the whole earth for one day each point represents an area of 3 degrees Longitude by 3 degrees latitude each point being 19600 sq. km and as such there are and over 5 million data points to cover a single year .
I went on to ask what proportion of the data points by year were derived by models over the period 1880 to the present day as opposed to measured temperature . How the data was normalised for altitude and how the average temperature was derived and how the time period over which the average temperature was calculated was synchronised across the globe. The answer I received was interesting in that to cut a long story short they said that it was for each reporting authority to determine how the average temperature was calculated and that there was no standard method being deployed. they deemed not to answer the question about what proportion of the data points were derived via models as opposed to measured results.
Given the answers I received I think that there is a case to suggest that there is no such thing as an accurate global temperature. They argue that what they report is the increase trend from the base line which is the data set from 1880 to 1950 and therefore the absolute values are irrelevant however, if the base line is based on derived data what value does any of it have?
FYI NASA does have some real scientists
but the website is a PR operation
and the Climate boss Gavin a PR operator.
Hi Stew,
I sent my queries direct via email to Dr Reto Ruedy and he answered as detailed above, I believe he originally was a mathematician. However, despite searching elsewhere I have not been able to identify which data points are derived in the GISS data set and the methodology applied to generate the averages nor on what basis the normalisation process is achieved
Have you looked at
Roy Spencer’s blog https://www.drroyspencer.com
It may have the info or be a good place to ask
Stew, Do you have an email address for Dr Spencer as there is not a link on the website many thanks TC
The whole point about averaging large numbers of data is that it improves accuracy by netting random errors. A sophisticated program that got error checks mostly right should have little or no effect on the average if the errors were random.
Going in and adjusting data that you think might be wrong therefore reduces the accuracy of your average. The fact that the vast majority of the adjustments make the past cooler when those making the adjustments cannot show the errors are systematic strongly suggests they are wrong. Random errors would roughly net over a large data set.
Many of those involved know this and so are guilty of deliberate fraud of the most basic kind.
Even Hansen admitted some years ago that global average temperature was “not a useful metric”. Nobody seems to have picked up on that confession!
Apparently, a scary 27C was recorded in Scotland today!
Indeed, but in a suntrap dodgy weather station that, even the, ultra alarmist, weather man on the BBC news tonight conceded that it couldn’t be relied upon. So, arguably, a pleasantly warm afternoon in Jockland but nothing out of the ordinary.
I ran the Met Station at the SMBA Laboratory just north of Oban for seven years in the 1970s. I can remember that the maximum temperature the we recorded during that period was 24°C. Usually a maximum of 22°C was more normal.
No warming measured during those years.
“a scary 27C was recorded in Scotland today!”
As long as they don’t start taking their kilts off. BBC will have reporters scouring the highlands looking for someone in a mini-kilt.
Today’s Climate PRtrickery
basically it’s shoved into 1 out of 4 shows so almost impossible to track it all
Tuesday Woman’s Hour had a segment on Cooking for Climate and going vegan
..yet by Wednesday morning they had gone back and edited it out of the blurb
Why ? It did actually air.
Wednesday the prog almost deviously left the lineup blank except for an XR demo photo
Only 30 minutes before broadcast did they tweet that XR protest would be the main item
Then they tweeted 2 promo tweets during the show
Only 3 hours later did they actually fill in the blurb
Listener Week: XR Climate Anxiety, protesting and economic sustainability with Kate Raworth ( 3 normal topics as well)
XR is protesting in London for a fortnight.
They’ve warned to expect disruption.
Listener Fiona Atkinson from Kendal got in touch with us to say that she’s joined the group at the age of 65 and was there on Monday.
She’d due to return next week. Her email to us began by saying,
“I and thousands of women will be in London on Mon 23rd August in Trafalgar Square at the start of 2 weeks of the XR protest.”
(The BBC repeating all that detail is PROMOTING the event)
I would love you to cover the women involved in the Climate Crisis debate/protests
and focus on how it will affect our children and grandchildren.”
She is joined by Marion Malcher, 66, who was arrested on Monday for lying in middle of a street with her arm in a suitcase.
She was released without charge and is back at Piccadilly Circus this morning.
So what is motivating older women to protest and is it effective?
(Probably cos they are full time Marxist activists already ?)
Many listeners have been in touch with their concerns about the planet, especially in relation to our ‘growth-at-all costs’ economic system.
One psychoanalyst called Phoebe Wieland emailed us about how she is ‘increasingly seeing clients from all walks of life who feel deep existential anxiety about the climate and ecological situation we face.”
Phoebe asked us to invite mental health professional Sally Weintrobe on to the programme whose new book on the psychological roots of the climate crisis has just been published. *Listeners* also asked us to speak to Kate Raworth who is a prominent eco-economist whose groundbreaking work Doughnut Economics has helped them find hope.
Is it possible that Woman’s Hour have actually connived with XR to construct this 30 mins of programme ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000z0c8
#2 ITV local news aired a 5 minute segment on
Is Climate likely to cause Yorkshire to Run out of water ?
was it PRasNews ? Well the main guest was the Yorkshire Water *Brand Manager*
.. https://twitter.com/JonnyBrownYorks/status/1430554425991565315
.. https://twitter.com/YorkshireWater/status/1430568274996211713
A doom monger farmer was brought on
I know he grows biofuel, but they never mentioned that
nor asked him about his flash petrol sports car.
#3 BBC4 aired part 1 of 3 Of a doco about water from the US
Episode 3 “Crisis” will have thick ClimateFearPorn
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000zgd9
Been wanting to see that graph for a long time. Be interesting to chart previous years – presumably exactly the same result, almost entirely within 2 SDs of the mean.
Also note that the minimums and maximums sit way outside the 5-95% bands so extremes have happened before and we’re really quite extreme.
An interesting exercise would be to count days above and below 5-95% over the centuries to see if “extremes” really have increased. Also to plot a rolling 30 year average of CET with the last 20 years against that to see how the anamoly changes versus the comparison period.
*were not we’re”
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