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New German Coalition Caves In To Greens

November 25, 2021
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By Paul Homewood

 

h/t Ian Magness

 

If you thought UK climate policy was potty…………….

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Olaf Scholz will head a three-party coalition with broad plans for Germany’s transition to a green economy, under a deal to end 16 years of government led by Angela Merkel.

Almost two months after his Social Democrat party won federal elections, he will go into power with the Greens and business-friendly Free Democrats.

Climate protection forms a big part of the coalition deal.

The parties aim to phase out coal use by 2030, eight years ahead of schedule.

They will also seek to use 2% of German territory for wind power and focus on hydrogen-based energy too. By 2030, the parties want 80% of electricity to be sourced from renewable energy and 15 million electric cars to be on German roads.

Making Germany climate neutral by 2045 is a big focus of the deal, entitled "Daring more progress". Phasing out coal will take place "ideally" by 2030, and solar energy will become compulsory on the roofs of new commercial buildings and the general rule for new private homes. The 16 states will have to provide 2% of their area for wind power. The goal to phase out cars with internal combustion engines remains the EU’s target of 2035.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59399702

 

Germany currently gets 35% of its power from coal and nuclear, the latter already due to be phased out next year. Without this reliable generation, Germany will be heavily reliant on imported electricity.

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BP Energy Review

So far this month, solar power has only provided 2.8% of Germany’s electricity. This equates to solar running at just 3% of its capacity. In simple terms, all of those solar panels they propose to build will be virtually useless in winter.

That leaves wind power. Although it has contributed on average 23% of total electricity this month, equivalent to 13 GW, there have been several days when it has been running at below 4GW. Given that Germany has 62 GW of wind power capacity, this is chicken feed.

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http://energodock.com/germany/electricity-shares

German households will no doubt pay the cost for this obsession with renewable energy. But without power from other countries to fall back on when the weather does not cooperate, the outcome would be catastrophic.

 

There is a twist to this story. Apparently even the Greens have accepted that there will an ongoing need for gas power stations, at least in the short term.

The problem is that Germany only currently has 30 GW of gas-fired capacity.

Graph shows installed net power generation capacity in Germany 2002-2020. Graph: CLEW 2020.

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-energy-consumption-and-power-mix-charts

Given the increased electrification proposed, Germany will at least 100 GW of reliable capacity. Gas, biomass and hydro together only provide 43 GW, less than half of that required.

That means an awful lot of new gas plants will have to be built. There may be a lot of hot air and wishful thinking, but little evidence that this will happen.

60 Comments
  1. JimW permalink
    November 25, 2021 1:44 pm

    Outsourcing their security of supply to France’s nukes and Poland’s coal. Hypocritical sods.

    • It doesn't add up... permalink
      November 25, 2021 3:17 pm

      This morning France was importing over 6GW from Germany to cover for its nuclear outages. Guess what happens when both are short? Aside from soaring prices, rotating blackouts and shutdown of industry beckon.

      http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/france/

    • mjr permalink
      November 25, 2021 4:10 pm

      Given the recent fascist tendancies of the teutons in respect of Covid restrictions, the french ought to check out the current state of repair of the Maginot line .

  2. Hugh Sharman permalink
    November 25, 2021 1:56 pm

    https://blackout-news.de/en/

  3. 1saveenergy permalink
    November 25, 2021 1:59 pm

    Yippee, it’s a race to the bottom !!
    Come on Britain, if we try harder we can beat them.

    Stop driving, ( fuel is needed for the elites), Turn your heating off (you can keep warm by hand digging frozen ground), One warm meal a day, Wash twice a year (whether you need to or not), We’ve beaten the Germans before … we can do it again; beloved Boris will lead us.

  4. Broadlands permalink
    November 25, 2021 2:10 pm

    “The goal to phase out cars with internal combustion engines remains the EU’s target of 2035.”

    How can that be done without using renewable biofuels to get it done? Even getting electric vehicles manufactured and transported somewhere will use biofuels. Elon Musk buys tons of them. Do these “visionaries” ever open their eyes…look around?
    Apparently not.

  5. Sobaken permalink
    November 25, 2021 2:11 pm

    How much interconnection does Germany currently have, around 15 GW? With Switzerland and Belgium phasing out nuclear, they will be reliant on imports themselves, unless they are willing to build gas power plants, so that leaves even less for Germany. Even if Poland, France, Czechia, Sweden, etc will be willing to provide power to Germany, there’s no way the interconnector capacity will rise to 60 GW. Plus, the 100 GW total demand figure is probably optimistic, they already use ~75 GW during peak times, electric heating and cars will add quite a lot to that number.

    • November 25, 2021 5:14 pm

      Sobaken

      Total “ENERGY” requirements is going to be at least 20% more than the UK’s, whose output is currently 67GW and it is estimated that by 2030/40 we will need at least 120GW. So the German figures appear wildly optimistic.

      Quite how you get rid of much of your base load power, double the requirements by introducing heat pumps, EV’s etc and then expect to power it all by renewables is a mystery to me

      • Harry Passfield permalink
        November 25, 2021 7:04 pm

        Plus very many.
        I doubt BorisPig is listening – or capable of understanding.

      • Sobaken permalink
        November 25, 2021 8:04 pm

        Germany has 48 million vehicles, suppose 40 million of those could be electrified. If average driving distance is 13000 km/year, and energy consumption is 0.2 kWh/km, that’s 104 TWh, allowing for transmission and charging inefficiencies this is probably around 130 TWh. Spread evenly through the year, that’s almost 15 GW of power, but of course it’s not going to be constant demand, most people would charge over evening/night, and could actually add 20-25 GW to peak demand.
        Heating is a lot more problematic. Germany uses 90 bcm (975 TWh) of gas a year, of which 45% (440 TWh) goes to the heating sector. Assuming heat pumps + electric boilers combined systems have a COP of 2.5, and accounting for losses, that requires ~190 TWh of electricity for space heat and hot water, or 22 GW of power on average. More of this demand will be concentrated in the coldest months, so will probably add ~40-50 GW to the peak demand during winter’s coldest days.

      • It doesn't add up... permalink
        November 29, 2021 2:34 am

        You underestimate peak heating demand. As gas it is mire like 4Twh in a day. You will be lucky i cold weather to see a COP of more than 1.5. Given that demand will also peak within the day around dawn and in the early evening, I think you’d be looking at peak demand more of the order of 150-200 GW for heating. That’s possibly an underestimate. UK gas demand peaks at around 350GW when it gets really cold, although that does include power stations and industry.

  6. Daisy9 permalink
    November 25, 2021 2:23 pm

    Socialists in power again in Germany eh ? Didn’t end too well eighty years ago…

  7. Douglas Dragonfly permalink
    November 25, 2021 2:26 pm

    Maybe they have similar dreams to Jonathan Brearley of Ofgem.
    “if we can control the time we charge our electric cars, if that same battery can be a source of stability, we will need a smaller grid and fewer power stations”
    Energy UK Annual Conference
    7/10/21

    • Harry Passfield permalink
      November 25, 2021 3:39 pm

      As long as it’s not HIS battery being tapped overnight when he’s got a long trip in the morning. These people really do live in la-la land. The point to put to people like him is, would you be happy for someone to syphon your petrol tank overnight and pay you less for the fuel then you paid for it?

      • Sobaken permalink
        November 25, 2021 4:23 pm

        You forgot to mention that the “petrol tank” requires hours to “refuel”, only withstands a thousand or so “refuellings” before it breaks, and costs half the price of the entire car to replace.
        To think anybody would allow their electric cars to be used as grid batteries is utter madness.

    • geoffb permalink
      November 25, 2021 4:18 pm

      Jonathan Brearley, head of ofgem, wrote the climate change act for ed milligram, he is responsible for the chaos in the electricity market, just how does he keep his job?

      • Harry Passfield permalink
        November 25, 2021 7:06 pm

        I thought that was Bryony’s Act – or was she the typist?

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      November 25, 2021 4:41 pm

      Nobody seems to bother about the fact that discharging and recharging a battery shortens its life. If youa re doing that just to keep the grid going…?

  8. Ben Vorlich permalink
    November 25, 2021 2:27 pm

    Germany will be heavily reliant on imported electricity.

    Where are they going to get it from? France is going to replace nuclear, the rest of western Europe is well Dow the windy road. Poland’s coal may help but what else?

    • mjr permalink
      November 25, 2021 4:12 pm

      they will get all the gas they want from Russia via the new pipeline,,,,,, of course with no strings attached

    • Mikehig permalink
      November 27, 2021 12:26 pm

      France is not going to replace nuclear any time soon, whatever the posturing politicos may say. They are well into a massive €45 bn programme to refurb all of the nukes bar the oldest. They are also planning to bring forward the construction of 6 new EPWRs.

  9. Jack Broughton permalink
    November 25, 2021 2:27 pm

    Bought shares in Siemens, they will get all the CCGTs in Germany.

    • It doesn't add up... permalink
      November 25, 2021 3:22 pm

      The question will be will Germany get Nordstream 4 to supply the gas?

    • Graeme No.3 permalink
      November 25, 2021 10:51 pm

      Jack Broughton:
      It was only 2-3 years ago when 2 almost new CCGT plants in Germany were dismantled and moved to other countries as they weren’t profitable.
      CCGT plants are best at continuous running (like coal & nuclear) and don’t like being used in Open Cycle mode to cover for deficiencies in generation by renewables. Lower efficiency, higher running costs and higher emissions.

      I think the “solution” to this plan is for Germany to burn lots of wood to make electricity and keep warm in winter. The best place to get that (once the Black Forest has been chopped down to make room for wind turbines) would be Siberia.
      As for those assuming that Germany will be able to draw electricity at will from Poland and Czechia I suggest that the recent bullying of them (and event previously) may not make them so keen on that (and they have installed phase change transformers to control what excess from wind comes onto their grids (and reverse?).

      • Jack Broughton permalink
        November 26, 2021 12:40 pm

        Graeme 3, Siemens also control the open cycle gas turbine market now. These are the lowest cost rapid response engines and will be the most likely balancing devices. Efficiencies can be over 40% and they can be installed rapidly, even mobile. CCGT is economic for longer operating hours I agree. I think that I’ll do okay over the next few years, but the stock market is really a gamblers or mega-investors paradise: my shares will not make any difference!

      • Graeme No.3 permalink
        November 26, 2021 8:12 pm

        Jack Broughton, so the “Green Way to the future” is to choose the higher costs and emissions process as a way of reducing emissions? And one that is, and will be, dependent on a foreign country which the EU goes out of its way to annoy. And further increases in the cost of electricity which will reduce the industrial sector along with supply disruptions due to the variable “solution to a non-problem”.
        If your PM Boris realy thinks he is Peppa Pig, he would still appear saner compared with his German counterparts.

  10. Gamecock permalink
    November 25, 2021 2:36 pm

    What a fabulous Thanksgiving for Greer, SC, Tuscaloosa and Calvert, AL.

    U.S. manufacturing locations for BMW, Mercedes, and ArcelorMittal steel (former ThyssenKrupp plant).

    So Germany votes for UK style suicide. I give them the same advise I gave you Brits: Move to South Carolina while the best sites are still available.

    https://www.sccommerce.com/buildings-sites

    ‘By 2030, the parties want 80% of electricity to be sourced from renewable energy and 15 million electric cars to be on German roads.’

    The theory being that while you destroy your economy, there will still be 15 million people still rich enough to buy electric cars. Here’s a clue: there aren’t 15 million TODAY who can afford an electric car.

    And ‘80% of electricity to be sourced from renewable energy’ is absurdly impossible, too.

    I don’t know what’s going on, but Germans aren’t this stupid.

    • roger permalink
      November 25, 2021 3:31 pm

      Oh yes they are!
      Unless you count instigating two world wars in the last century as intelligent.
      The madness of crowds was specially coined to describe the German nation and there is little or no evidence to demonstrate the contrary.
      This latest idiocy marks yet another panto season.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      November 25, 2021 4:44 pm

      Sadly they really are. They are firmly convinced that they can have their cake and eat it too. I suspect pretty every Western European country is planning on consuming the same electricity via imports as each other. Should be interesting.

      • dave permalink
        November 26, 2021 11:38 am

        Germany has ‘form’ in plunging into disaster when its rulers become fixated on ends and not means. Essentially, it lost both World Wars because of gross failures in logistics.

        The fact that the Wars were reckless gambles, started against all common sense, was known by ordinary German people, from the beginning
        of the ventures.

        A British officer imprisoned in Germany from 1939 relates how the guards received the news of the invasion of Russia. With deepest gloom and fear: “Now we are for it. We are as good as dead. You are the lucky one, Captain X, tucked up in this cosy place!”

  11. November 25, 2021 2:51 pm

    Cloud cuckoo land may sound nice — until you get there.

  12. November 25, 2021 3:26 pm

    It will be interesting what the demand for Electricity will be with Hydrogen Iron and Steel Hint don’t ask for Swedish imports as they are already 25GWh short by 2035.

  13. Ben Vorlich permalink
    November 25, 2021 3:43 pm

    Wind power is becoming too cheap.

    “Wind power risks becoming too cheap, says top turbine maker | Reuters”

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/wind-power-risks-becoming-too-cheap-says-top-turbine-maker-2021-11-24/

    • Gamecock permalink
      November 25, 2021 4:14 pm

      ‘”What we’ve clearly achieved is that wind power is now cheaper than anything else. But I believe we shouldn’t make it too cheap,” Chief Executive Andreas Nauen told Reuters.’

      Still not paying for your backup, are you?

      The business case for backup goes away way before you get to 80% of electricity sourced from renewables. Leaving you with limited, intermittent electricity supply. Meaning your economy will be dead in 8 years. Even before, as you move toward it.

      One thing they’ll see is that the backups in the interim, before they close up, will have to charge what they need to pay for their operations on severely curtailed demand. I expect to see charges as high as 10 Euros per kilowatt hour. Germany will pay for the backups, one way or the other, or they won’t have them. It’s not complicated.

      • Sobaken permalink
        November 25, 2021 5:30 pm

        Here’s my very simplistic estimate of what 80% electricity from renewables could look like:
        https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rFlwLUXjFIvZ2SzoYkog3D4q-FCb1f2ZhB9uKb_bWbw/edit?usp=sharing
        Based on demand and generation data from energodock for 2019 (although the first three days are missing).
        https://energodock.cz/energodock/get_online_generation_data.php?type=electricity-generation&country=germany&start_date=2019-01-01&end_date=2019-12-31
        No storage or interconnection considered (even though some exists in Germany, and more could be built), but also no electrification of heating and vehicles (so in reality demand would be much higher, if they were to follow through on their electrification policy commitments). Frequency control and system stability also not considered, you’d probably need some batteries for that.
        Numbers for cost calculation are from EIA, converted to euros:

        Click to access table_8.2.pdf

      • Harry Passfield permalink
        November 25, 2021 7:25 pm

        Fascinating, SOBAKEN.

        I was struck by this minor quote: “Frequency control and system stability also not considered, you’d probably need some batteries for that.”

        That takes me back. I can remember when a ‘man’ would come round to the house to swap our dead grid battery for a recharged one. Of course, in those days, a grid battery was there to allow the old thermionic valves in our old (new then) radio to work.

        How bloody ironic it will be that I can end my life with the thought that the government/an entrepreneur/one of Deben’s later family can come round and sell me a lithium battery wall to enable the country to balance its electricity stability. At times like this I really feel it’s time for old sods like me to be gone.

        The young are welcome to it. It won’t be pretty.

  14. November 25, 2021 4:38 pm

    And they think Putin and Xing are not rubbing their hands at the thought of the central part of the EU shooting itself as often as it can in the foot.

    This is beyond insanity, this becomes criminal The number one job and I would expect what they promise as part of their oath of office is the safety of the German population. How does this lemming behaviour do anything except make the population more vulnerable to a range of problems including a declining lifestyle, and economy and the possibility of military threat? That must mean what they are doing is a conscious criminal act perpetrated against the German population

    • Harry Passfield permalink
      November 25, 2021 7:26 pm

      Well said!

    • Gamecock permalink
      November 25, 2021 10:27 pm

      10-4, Mr breathing.

      Peterson’s Dictum: “If you can’t figure out what someone is doing, or why, look at the outcome. And infer the motivation. If it produces mayhem, perhaps it was aiming at mayhem.”

      At some point, you should think the destruction is intentional.

      • screwtape permalink
        November 25, 2021 11:16 pm

        Yes absolutely. Leads you to a dark place, doesn’t it?

      • J Burns permalink
        November 26, 2021 2:27 am

        It’s worth going back to Ayn Rand’s essays and novels. Clunky though the latter are in places, she understood this sort of mindset perfectly.

    • screwtape permalink
      November 25, 2021 11:01 pm

      Of course! What else could it possibly be. You are witnessing a calculated, orchestrated scenario. The implications are inconceivable.

  15. Tim Leeney permalink
    November 25, 2021 4:57 pm

    The Gadarene rush to net zero continues.

    • Harry Passfield permalink
      November 25, 2021 7:28 pm

      ..or, as I call it, the NZC-fication of our lives. B*stards!!

  16. cookers52 permalink
    November 25, 2021 5:35 pm

    Vulnerability to extreme weather increases with every net zero policy decision. Is there any sort of risk analysis carried out?

    If they believe in the Climate Emergency where is the alleviation and adaption plan?

    • screwtape permalink
      November 25, 2021 11:12 pm

      Climate. Emergency was invented to enable this.
      The analysis has been done and this is the calculated means to the desired objective.
      I ask you, what do you think the objective is?
      This madness is only logical from one perspective
      You know what this is but you instantly discount it and convince yourself that your witnessing some sort of Idealistic groupthink.

  17. November 25, 2021 7:12 pm

    I believe they call each surrender to violent national or eco-eugenic socialism an Anschluss. The last anschluss ended about 3 weeks after the Jesus Fuhrer was lifted bodily to Heaven, but too late for the US to get back its $30 million Austria owed for hiring Americans to occupy them after the defeats of 1919. Next time we’ll let more bitter enemies do the occupying.

  18. Pancho Plail permalink
    November 25, 2021 9:56 pm

    Well that looks like the end of Germany as an economic power.

  19. Gamecock permalink
    November 25, 2021 10:33 pm

    I have wondered – out loud – whether it would be Denmark or Norway that invades UK because Net Zero destroys Britain.

    This German thing changes everything. France, Poland, and Austria all have historical reasons for invading Germany. Should Germany collapse before the UK, who gets them?

    And will it change who gets Britain?

    Imagine a billion people having to learn Danish!

    • mikewaite permalink
      November 26, 2021 8:31 am

      Some say that England was never better governed than when part of Cnut’s empire.

      • mjr permalink
        November 26, 2021 6:13 pm

        rather than currently being governed by a complete cnut

  20. dearieme permalink
    November 25, 2021 11:00 pm

    Here’s an interesting dismissal of German (and other) politicians.
    https://eugyppius.substack.com/p/ignorant-and-afraid

  21. cookers52 permalink
    November 26, 2021 5:45 am

    Paul is right to point out that Germany’s net zero policies are just as potty as the UK.

    However the recent flooding in Germany, that was blamed by all politicians on climate change, when the truth is the cause was lack of political governance .

    The same will happen in UK.

  22. Douglas Dragonfly permalink
    November 26, 2021 9:51 am

    Maybe Germany’s course has been ordered ? By those not perusing the same route. Why on earth commit so entirely to an unproven, experimental form of life support ? Almost as if Putin is seeking revenge ?
    Anyway, who ever ordered this lunacy it is very decent of the German people to commit first.
    I just hope Pepper Johnson is paying close attention or at least his energy gurus are.
    NO MORE RUNNING DOWN FOSSIL FUELS until we see how the German experiment pans out.

    • Gamecock permalink
      November 26, 2021 1:04 pm

      Fair point. Germany may save Britain by slamming into the wall first. Whoever wins the race saves the other from the same fate.

  23. Dave Andrews permalink
    November 26, 2021 6:33 pm

    I note there is still a little wiggle room in the agreement that says coal should “ideally” be phased out by 2030. Perhaps someone is playing a longer term game- maybe hoping the green politicos will soon show their ignorance.

  24. Gamecock permalink
    November 28, 2021 2:32 pm

    Breitbart reporting new German government will also move for massive immigration. I guess killing energy supply won’t crush Germany fast enough.

    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2021/11/27/incoming-leftist-coalition-government-in-germany-to-open-doors-to-mass-chain-migration/

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