Global warming not responsible for Madagascar famine: study
By Paul Homewood
You will recall the Panorama edition last month, “Wild Weather: Our World Under Threat”.
Presented by the ubiquitous Justin Rowlatt, it made a series of absurd, easily debunked claims of how the world’s weather was getting worse because of climate change.
One segment dealt with a drought in Madagascar. Full of emotive scenes of starving children, Rowlatt claimed without a shred of evidence that the recent drought there was “climate-change induced”: (50 mins in)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00117h1/panorama-wild-weather-our-world-under-threat
Lo and behold, it turns out the drought was just a weather event after all, and that global warming had nothing at all to do with it. A new study has just been published by World Weather Attribution, who specialise in these matters, and who normally stretch every sinew to put the blame for bad weather on climate change.
These are its findings:
Southern Madagascar (the Grand Sud) is facing a deteriorating food security crisis, exacerbated by exceptionally low levels of rainfall over the last two years. In an area with 90% of the population living below the poverty line, this recent drought has contributed to tens of thousands facing severe famine-like conditions.
Severe food insecurity is the clearest impact of the ongoing drought in Madagascar. While precipitation deficits have been widespread across the southern half of the country, we chose to focus on the region in the very south-west of the country (the Grand Sud region) for two reasons: first, this is where the humanitarian impacts are most heavily concentrated, and second, because the commonly used Köppen-Geiger climate classification shows this area to exhibit somewhat unique climatic properties.
Scientists from South Africa, Madagascar, New Zealand, India, the Netherlands, France, United States of America and the United Kingdom, collaborated to assess to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the below-average rainfall in Southern Madagascar.
Using published peer-reviewed methods, we analysed how human-induced climate change affected the 24 month low rainfall events in the Grand Sud region of Madagascar.
Based on observations and climate modelling, the occurrence of poor rains as observed from July 2019 to June 2021 in Southern Madagascar has not significantly increased due to human-caused climate change. While the observations and models combine to indicate a small shift toward more droughts like the 2019-2021 event as a consequence of climate change, these trends remain overwhelmed by natural variability.
That graph is key. The 2019-2021 drought was no worse than in 1990-92. Indeed rainfall was slightly higher this time around.
In other words, this was the sort of weather event that comes around every few decades.
There are of course hundreds of regions around the world where these disasters can occur, so you are bound to find several every year.
It’s a pity, but hardly surprising, that Rowlatt did not check the data first, instead of relying on the discredited Michael Mann, who knows nothing at all about these matters.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
So, a report from an unqualified BBC ‘journalist’ is a complete load of rubbish. Par for the course.
Strangely, his impressions of an empty-headed climate windbag are deemed worthy of BBC payments and seemingly unlimited overseas travel at the expense of TV licence payers.
Climate Change is responsible for an Indonesian volcano and earthquake
.. apparently
According to Climate Justice Indonesia, an account writing in English.
Anybody replied to this Cockwomble?
How does the article by Sarah Newey in today’s Sunday Telegraph fit with this latest report?
The headline writers go for hyperbole
Print header “Madagascar faces world’s first climate famine”
sub heading “is this the future of climate change famine?”
… https://twitter.com/sneweyy/status/1467108971047751686
“multiple factors contribute ”
but why did the “Head of Branding and Communications for Medair” go all the way there anyway ?
@medairUK bio : “International humanitarian organisation
helping people in crisis survive and recover with dignity, since 1989.”
… https://twitter.com/soconnorYEG/status/1467106519795838977
Lazy and complacent copy characterises many journos work nowadays. She’ll get a letter from me based on what Paul has kindly provided Cc to her editor suggesting that he must be overworked to have let this one through.
Take comfort however:
The same edition of the S.T. has an article on page 22 by Annabel Graham on the fragility of the UK Climate Change Committee from which I quote…
“If the body advising the government on climate change does not learn how to make balanced decisions pegged to rigorous cost-benefit analysis, then we will soon find ourselves in deeply troubled waters”.
It’s a step towards taking account of reality.
You can include this information in your complaint too Thomas . To begin with , southern Madagascar has always been prone to aridity due to the colder waters offshore ..Die Kalte Sonne posted a 120 year Madagascar annual precipitation series confirming the 2019 – 21 Grand Sud drought is within the range of natural variability .In fact there were harsher more severe droughts centered on 1909 -10 and the 1940’s . The Scroxton et al 2017 precipitation reconstruction extending back 2 millennia for Madagascar reveals low rainfall and drought were noticeably worse during the Middle Ages around 1000 and 1200 AD . The ‘first climate change induced famine ” hysteria tagged to Madagascar has no scientific credulity whatsoever
” Todays Madagascar Drought Entirely Normal ,2000 Years Of Data Show ..Link To Climate Change Not Correct ‘ , Iowa Climate Change Education , 31 Aug. 2021
“Scientists from South Africa, Madagascar, New Zealand, India, the Netherlands, France, United States of America and the United Kingdom”
The paper has 20 authors, this is an “I am Spartacus” attempt to avoid naming the guilty in this crime against science. Attribution science is junk, even when it claims that something has got nothing to do with greenhouse gases.
These people have no understanding of the physics of the atmosphere. They take some data (it could be inside leg measurements), do some Micky Mouse statistical modelling, involving hidden and almost certainly invalid assumptions, and deduce something, with no understanding needed of the phenomena that produce the data.
Hard to see how it needed 20 scientists to debunk this claim when I could probably do it myself during lunch with a good 4G connection. Incidentally, we didn’t just get a drought in Madagascar in 1992, we also got a 197mph wind in Shetland, which puts Storm Arwen into perspective.
So yet another complaint to the BBC?
So Madgascar’s famine is nothing to do with its population growing from 15.8m to 28.8m in the past 2 decades?
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/madagascar-population/
Nor life expectancy increasing by 7 years during the same period.
The concept of having more mouths to feed for longer seems alien to the Biased BBC
The BBC is literally not interested in what you or I think of as “truth”. Truth for them is that capitalism and free markets are bad so must be done away with. Any way of achieving that is acceptable. And in the end every bad thing is the fault of capitalism anyway because without it we would all be living in a Paradise of plenty and social loveliness.
This is what happens when you ‘work’ for an organisation divorced from economic reality as it is totally funded by an impost on taxpayers.
Joe: my recollection is that Paul addressed this very subject recently referring to the increasing population having to live off very limited cultivable land.
Major unrest in Belgrade concerning China attempt to take over the mining of Lithium in that country, supported by two new land laws which are being rejected by the people in mass protests. Link: https://uk.yahoo.com/news/thousands-belgrade-protest-controversial-land-041816051.html
In a strange way Justin is correct the UN accompanied by Boris are leading us over the Abyss.
Every resource is diverted and ploughed into emissions reduction and scant regard is paid to adaption and vulnerability reduction. So famine and death, and disruption due to extreme weather will return.
The increasing UK population is extremely vulnerable to drought, no major reservoirs built since 1991.
Also cooker, no connectivity. We have no national grid for water – but could have. A few extra canals and pump stations and the we could shift water around UK via canal and river grid. At the moment you cant get water from the severn valley to the Thames valley (many plans exist some over 100yrs old). No water from lake district to manchester. UK always has loads of water but not always in the needed places. When nationalised the Govt couldnt be bothered spending. Now privatised companies fight to protect their monopolies and dont want other companies connecting to their fiefdoms. Govt complicit in it all.
Rowlatt is dangerous, a Climate activist & zeal0t. Facts are immaterial in support of his sister, who is part of Insulate Britain
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/bbc-climate-editors-sister-is-among-113-insulate-britain-eco-zealots/ar-AAPjZR1
When did the BBC decide to have & support all these activists?
You would think they would have learned from the past
I don’t think these institutions “decide” anything as such. Over time they just become more and more biased as people recruit like-minded individuals and people with different opinions become less likely to even apply. Once a Groupthink view is established, people with more extreme views see it as a suitable vehicle for their agendas. At that point the institution is beyond saving and is nothing more than a campaigning entity for its employees. Of course the standards of work fall precipitously at the same time as people are employed based on their zeal for the cause, not their abilities.
An excellent analysis. Thanks
Rowlatt is dangerous, a Climate activist & zeal0t. Facts are immaterial in support of his sister, who is part of Insulate Britain
When did the BBC decide to have & support all these activists?
You would think they would have learned from the past
‘Food insecurity’ is Global Government dog whistle call for the UN to take over agriculture.
See also “______ insecurity.” Water, etc.
People aren’t handling it right, so government must take over. It’s for the children.
Billions will die. Know that whatever the problem, Global Government will make it infinitely worse. Food and water are local issues. Remote government will not take care of people.
‘we chose to focus on the region in the very south-west of the country (the Grand Sud region) for two reasons: first, this is where the humanitarian impacts are most heavily concentrated’
Wut? You were just walking down the street, and the thought hit you, “You know, the humanitarian impacts are most heavily concentrated in the south-west of Madagascar. We should do a study there!’
‘and second, because the commonly used Köppen-Geiger climate classification shows this area to exhibit somewhat unique climatic properties.’
An easily checked lie. BSh occurs on five continents. But you decided to do a study because southwest Madagascar is BSh? What an odd reason.
I submit they chose southwest Madagascar because they thought the could get some tear jerk photos. Their intent is to EXPLOIT these people’s misery.
Well they couldn’t choose drought in Australia could they? Floods in Queensland and NSW, and much rain in WA, SA and Victoria rather destroy any credibility of the climate change induced pernanent drought.
New records for cold and rain in NSW in November. Global warming is proving to be bl–dy cold!
O/T but California is now admitting that, by passing a law that allows controlled burns, fire suppressant measures over the years have been the major contributor to their wild fires . This is a big turnaround although they are still saying that CC is unusually drying the undergrowth and making it more liable to catch fire. Well, they would need to add that wouldn’t they or they would be admitting that the wildfires are fully the fault of human mismanagement which, I hate to say this, is what Donald Trump said was the cause a few years back.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/3/new-california-law-affirms-indigenous-right-to-controlled-burns
Agriculture in Madagascar – Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Agriculture_in_Madag…
In fact, out of the 41 million hectares of agricultural land, only 3.5 million hectares are cultivated annually. The remainder of the area is under pastures .
Sorry if this has has already been said, but ..
“Southern Madagascar (the Grand Sud) is facing a deteriorating food security crisis … ”
If the food security crisis is deteriorating, that’s good news, isn’t it? Surely nobody with would want the food security crisis to increase?
Somehow we have have to get over the problem of talking to ourselves when nobody else is listening. I think “the message” is part of the cause. The ecos have a simple message which has been picked up universally viz carbon dioxide is causing heating and we are all going to die. Our messages are all over the place. One version is that its all rubbish and we should ignore it. Nobody is going to buy that (but its prpbably true). Another is to agree that its happening but we should put ourselves first and do nothing. Another non -starter. The version that I prefer is that it may or may not be happening but the extent is grossly exaggerated and largely outside our control so should put the welfare of our people and our economy first. Let others, more indfluential than us, take the lead.
Except I don’t think this is about weather at all. UN, WEF, etc., want global government with them in charge.
Since getting independence from France in 1960, Madagascar has had ethnic strife and government turmoil. The UN, and Justin Rowlatt, are not going to say, “You know, we should just give it back to France.”
They are for colonialism, but not by countries. They want to seize Madagascar as their first UN territory. All these stories on Madagascar are not to help the people; they are to justify colonialism. I repeat ‘food security crisis’ is world government inviting itself in to take over.
Think same when you hear all the chatter about Pacific island countries. They don’t want to help them; they want them. The cries that people are suffering will be justification for eliminating them. “They are far better off now.”
While agreeing with your overall argument, it puts me in mind of an editorial in ‘The Nation’; a Kenyan owned English language newspaper in 1988. They were bemoaning the economic state of a number of ex British colonies and stating they were better off under British rule. Luckily for them there were no millennials around then to cancel them for such heretical thoughts!!
I have given up as Climate change and common sense will never appear together.
The list of misleading information broadcast by the BBC as News is getting very long, but there is no point in complaining as your elected representatives in Parliament have unanimously declared a Climate emergency and are enforcing a net zero policy with no evidence of what the consequences will be.
Thanks Hamish re: 6.03 am above on 6th Dec. Will borrow today at least half your supplementary text and the Iowa note.