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Britain Needs Shale Gas Now–Tim Worstall

February 14, 2022

By Paul Homewood

 

 

London, 14 February – As Britain and Europe face the worst energy and security crisis since World War II, a new paper published by Net Zero Watch reviews the arguments for and against shale gas drilling in the UK, and attempts to correct disinformation about the possible effect that it would have on energy prices in the UK.

 

The paper, by economics writer Tim Worstall, reviews misleading and scaremongering arguments put forward by green activists, including by the environment minister Lord Goldsmith, and concludes that they are almost entirely without foundation.
According to Worstall,

You can tick off the greens’ arguments one by one and they are almost without exception baseless scaremongering. It’s hard to imagine a more benign extractive industry.”

And on the case that a UK shale gas industry would not affect UK energy prices, Worstall says that most commentary on the subject entirely misunderstands the way energy markets work.

Domestic gas production would substitute for imports, which are higher priced because they carry the cost of transportation. So UK consumers would undoubtedly see a big benefit, as would the Treasury, which would receive a huge injection of royalty income at a time when it badly needs it.”

Net Zero Watch director, Dr Benny Peiser said.

As Britain and Europe face the worst energy and security crisis since World War II, Tim Worstall’s paper shows that there are no good reasons not to develop Britain’s enormous shale gas resources.
But it’s not just about the cost-of-living crisis. The government’s failure to develop our shale gas wealth is incentivising Putin’s energy wars and has become a major disaster for national security.
When it comes to shale gas, Boris Johnson has a choice now: He can protect consumers, the economy and national security, or he can continue to protect his green cronies.”

Tim Worstall: Restarting UK Shale Gas (pdf)

One of the issues raised by Tim Worstall is the claim by anti-frackers that “there is not much gas to extract”. As he neatly points out, if this was the case there would be no need to ban fracking, because Cuadrilla would quickly decide to stop wasting their money drilling anyway!

The reality of course is that Cuadrilla are eager to resume their work on the Bowland Shale, and believe the decision by the OGA to seal the wells is a huge mistake. Cuadrilla certainly would not be willing to spend more money if they did not believe the project was economically viable.

Tim Worstall covers this issue in detail, commenting:

 

image

Whether Cuadrilla can really extract all of the gas claimed, and do so viably, is of course not the government’s problem. It is the company’s.

All the government can, and should, do is reverse the OGA’s decision, and lift its ban on fracking.

18 Comments
  1. that man permalink
    February 14, 2022 6:31 pm

    “…declaring a reserve when there isn’t one is fraud…”
    The corollary to this, surely, is that denial of a reserve when there is one is fraud.

    • that man permalink
      February 14, 2022 6:46 pm

      —Zac please note…

    • Harry Passfield permalink
      February 14, 2022 7:24 pm

      AFAIK A ‘reserve’ is defined as once when a source has been defined. At the moment we don’t have proven reservoirs. I hope we get the chance to prove them.
      Imagine Wedgie-Benn closing down North Sea Oil because he believed in CC!!!

      • that man permalink
        February 14, 2022 7:41 pm

        My guess is that this ‘government’s’ obscene haste to concrete-over Cuadrilla’s drillings is motivated by a justifiable suspicion that substantial reserves exist.
        This, in turn, would be a serious impediment to the net-zero agenda.

      • Phoenix44 permalink
        February 15, 2022 9:29 am

        If they have declared reserves they have met the definition.

  2. Cheshire Red permalink
    February 14, 2022 8:16 pm

    I’ve always maintained the real reason Greens are opposed to UK shale gas isn’t in case it’s bad so much as if it turns out to be good.

    That’s their fear; a brilliant shale gas industry would decimate any need for ‘renewables’.

    As always, follow the money.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      February 15, 2022 9:32 am

      Very true. Same with destroying coal fired power stations – if it turns out the climate cools or we don’tcare if it warms, we can’t go back to coal. The Greens want renewables and all the rest regardless.

    • Ray Sanders permalink
      February 15, 2022 11:24 am

      Same reason they don’t like nuclear, because they know it works, Even worse most greens are against hydroelectric even though it is a renewable! They do not seem to want stuff that actually works.

  3. February 14, 2022 8:21 pm

    An excellent report by Tim Worstall. It should be compulsory reading for politicians and bureaucrats (but they wouldn’t understand most of it).

  4. cookers52 permalink
    February 15, 2022 6:19 am

    It is pointless getting shale gas out of the ground when the infrastructure that pipes gas into our homes is being allowed to life expire.
    Long Term investment in the gas distribution infrastructure has ceased.
    When it comes to closing things down politicians are very good at this. All the power stations have been very publicly demolished, the coal industry no longer exists, gas will go the same way. Nuclear power is next on the list.
    There is no limit to the madness but we can only blame ourselves as we voted for the village idiot.

    • Tim Leeney permalink
      February 15, 2022 7:59 am

      The rot was well under way before he came on the scene. What he is good at is U turns, so we can at least live in hope.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      February 15, 2022 9:27 am

      How can you blame stuff that happened ten years ago on somebody elected two years ago?

  5. Phoenix44 permalink
    February 15, 2022 9:29 am

    Worstall’s key point is correct – if it’s not there is not economic then fine. Cuadrilla’s shareholders have lost money.

    Is the government now proposing to vet every business plan in every sector to make sure they are all viable?

    Then why for fracking?

  6. February 15, 2022 11:14 am

    I thonk you are referring to 1p reserves
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proven_reserves

    Afaics no reserve report by an independant consutant has been published ….. all talk pf reseves are either guesses or speculation.

    Until more exploration is done we si.ply dont know. The USexperience is that not all shale acreage is equal hence many went bust in 2015 when oil hit $40

  7. Joe Public permalink
    February 15, 2022 4:59 pm

    There is this report by British Geological Survey:

    “Shale gas in the UK”

    https://www.bgs.ac.uk/geology-projects/shale-gas/shale-gas-in-the-uk/

    There’s this opinion piece at The Conversation:

    “How we discovered UK shale gas reserves are at least 80% smaller than thought”

    https://theconversation.com/how-we-discovered-uk-shale-gas-reserves-are-at-least-80-smaller-than-thought-122076

    The latter fails to point out that even if they are correct, there’d be only 8,300TWh there. Enough *from that single source* to meet 10 years of Britain’s current usage.

    • February 15, 2022 6:34 pm

      We dont know :-
      The decline rate
      The cost of drilling rigs + crew, pumping, frac sand, water disposal, propant etc

      Gas from shale is capital intensive; after 2015 experiences banks wont lend against an independant reseves report. It needs someone with good cashflow and expertise to run things (and non european so forget shell and bp)

      So far all exploration has been of a speculative nature. Will Us majors be interested – who knows?

  8. Gamecock permalink
    February 15, 2022 11:16 pm

    ‘Fracking the shales for natural gas is the one option that
    makes sense. Therefore we should do so.
    The only viable alternative is to shiver in the dark as we
    nibble our limited supplies of raw food – not quite the point
    of having a civilisation in the first place.’

    False dichotomy. You could burn coal. Expand nuclear.

    Worstall has the soul of a fascist. He likes government control. He thinks government has made bad choices, so he wants government to make another choice.

    He misses the common denominator: government.

    The solution is for government to get out of the energy harassment business. Not for government to shift and try something else.

    • Mikehig permalink
      February 16, 2022 9:03 am

      Exactly!
      As John Galt would say: Get out of the way!!

Comments are closed.