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Somalia Say Drought Is Due To Climate Change, As They Demand Billions

October 27, 2022
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By Paul Homewood

 

h/t Paul Weldon

 

 

Are the droughts in Somalia due to climate change?

 

 

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https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/oct/10/uk-lost-leadership-role-somalia-famine-drought-envoy

 

 

Inevitably the long running drought in Somalia has led to claims that climate change is responsible.

The first thing to note though is that the direct cause has been La Nina, which is now into its third years and invariably leads to drought in that part of the world.

But what are the longer term trends?

According to World Bank data, rainfall trends have been steadily increasing since the 1970s and 80s, the time of the Sahel drought which led to the Band Aid concerts, and which were the direct result of global cooling.

Over the longer period little has changed, though occasionally we get exceptionally wet years.

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However the World Bank data is incomplete, particularly in the early years, where some regional data is estimated. And, of course, country averages may cover up the areas suffering most.

According to the BBC, the region suffering most from drought is just to the west of Mogadishu, known as the Bay region:

 

Somalia famine graphic

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-63116210

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https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/somalia/trends-variability-historical

The World Bank has good data for Bay, going back to 1901, and this actually shows a very similar pattern to the national data. Note that rainfall totals are higher than the national ones, which are lower because of the desert region to the north.

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https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/user/login?destination=/country/somalia/trends-variability-historical&autologout_timeout=1

Undoubtedly the fact that La Nina is now in its third year has exacerbated the drought, but population growth, a ten-fold increase since 1950, is the main reason why droughts like these, which are perfectly natural and common events, now have such a human impact. The long running civil war, of course, has hardly helped matters either.

29 Comments
  1. Martin Brumby permalink
    October 27, 2022 12:53 pm

    No mention of the shortcomings of Somali leadership, then.

    Not surprising.

  2. Christopher Hall permalink
    October 27, 2022 12:59 pm

    Strange isn’t it that Lake Turkana in next door Kenya seems to be getting bigger at the same time. Poor old BBC can’t tell the difference between climate and weather.

    • Curious George permalink
      October 27, 2022 5:58 pm

      According to BBC, the fastest warming place on Earth is Svalbard, but there is still a chance to save it.

      • Graeme No.3 permalink
        October 27, 2022 9:39 pm

        Will it get as warm as it was in the 1920’s?

  3. Thomas Carr permalink
    October 27, 2022 1:07 pm

    Population growth affects perception of drought or at least the sufficiency of water supply. Any chance of see contemporary figures for population size since, say, 1970?

    • dave permalink
      October 27, 2022 2:07 pm

      3.7 million to 17.1 in fifty years + 2.0 million in a disapora.

      What is there to say?

      • October 27, 2022 2:35 pm

        Here are the figures that confirm your data

        https://www.populationpyramid.net/somalia/1950/

        The population rises rapidly in years to come. Whether it is droughts or flooding in Syria, Nigeria , Kenya, Ethiopia etc at the bottom of it will be a huge increase in population with resultant pressure on drinking water for humans, livestock, watering grain and crops, industry and the tendency, as population increases, for people to live in unsuitable places as space shrinks, from the sides of rivers to the edge of deserts.

      • October 27, 2022 2:41 pm

        Remember Bob Geldorf and Band aid and Ethiopia 1984? The population then was 40 million, today a staggering 130 million

        https://www.populationpyramid.net/ethiopia/1950/

        You would have to have the best climate ever together with fantastic farming techniques to overcome that sort of population increase and keep everyone fed and watered.

      • catweazle666 permalink
        October 27, 2022 2:47 pm

        “Feed to Breed”.

      • Ben Vorlich permalink
        October 27, 2022 5:04 pm

        The reasons for large families are manyfold. In poor countries infant mortality meant almost stable populations or at worst slow population growth. But what happens is that with improved agriculture and medicine all those early deaths disappear and the population explodes,
        But with growing wealth within a couple of generations family sizes drop back down and within four or five the population begins to drop. The key is wealth, that way you don’t need a lot of children to ensure a decent family income.

      • October 27, 2022 5:16 pm

        Ben

        I know the theory but it doesn’t seem to work like that. The continuing huge population increases in many poorer African and Asian countries are already going to happen and greater wealth is relative isn’t it.

      • Ben Vorlich permalink
        October 27, 2022 9:02 pm

        Climate,
        I appreciate that, but most of these countries don’t have enlightened Victoria politicians and entrepreneurs. They are being exploited by the new Imperialists China and Russia. No New Lanark or Saltaire with education for children and relatively enlightened employment for the time. China will start seeing negative population growth next year if current trends continue, three generations since WW2. Rate of growth in India and Vietnam are falling and less than 1% too, as it is in Egypt and Bangladesh but these are further behind. But these are only at generation 2. Most countries not showing a declining growth rate are in Africa, Nigeria and Niger which is increasing.
        Looking at my family tree from start of 19th century, surviving children goes
        2/3->5-7->10+ – >5-10–>3/5->2/3. But there are outliers in each generation both no children and 10+.
        Sorry about the lengthy reply.

      • Phoenix44 permalink
        October 28, 2022 8:57 am

        But the theory is working
        Fertlity rate in Africa in 2022 is 4.2. In 1951 it was 6.6. The decline started around the mid 1980s, as various countries embraced economic reform.

        https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/AFR/africa/fertility-rate#:~:text=The%20current%20fertility%20rate%20for,a%201.32%25%20decline%20from%202020.

      • October 28, 2022 4:39 pm

        Phoenix

        But if you have greatly increased the population in the first place, then a slightly reduced birth rate will still result in a massive population increase that is impossible to sustain. Don’t forget the upper figure meant a lot of mortalities, whereas the lower figure-fortunately- will result in many fewer mortalities as medical care improves, so the numbers surviving will remain about the same.

  4. Bob Schweizer permalink
    October 27, 2022 1:13 pm

    What is this ‘climate change fund’ and who controls the purse strings? If there is such a strong belief in the effect of ‘climate change’ by the advocates of such a fund, then why are they not giving some of it to Somalia? Unless, of course, they have doubts about its efficacy as well.

    • John Hultquist permalink
      October 27, 2022 5:33 pm

      Search: Green Climate Fund

      Several blog posts covered this a few years ago. I recall it is opaque.

  5. Chaswarnertoo permalink
    October 27, 2022 1:50 pm

    What utter, utter BS.

  6. Mr Robert Christopher permalink
    October 27, 2022 2:21 pm

    The Drought Envoy doesn’t seem to realise that the UK doesn’t have an empire any more and, for some reason, has its own internal strife, foreign wars within the country, to resolve, as well as its own out-of-touch politicians that ignore the rest of the country.

  7. October 27, 2022 2:51 pm

    The more accurate headline might read “We’re demanding billions and climate change is a good excuse”

  8. ancientpopeye permalink
    October 27, 2022 4:45 pm

    Surely this cannot be their new scam, now that piracy is not so profitable?

  9. Cheshire Red permalink
    October 27, 2022 6:05 pm

    Now we’re getting lectured by a sodding Somalian anagram. Give me strength we need a revolution and fast.

  10. markl permalink
    October 27, 2022 6:20 pm

    After being promised money by those that don’t have it for missing the industrial revolution the developing countries want the promises to be carried out. They’re asking the wrong people. They should be asking those that made the promises.

  11. Derek T permalink
    October 27, 2022 7:43 pm

    I wonder why our own political leaders don’t mention these points. No mention by the mainstream media either. Opinions can be controversial but facts are simply facts, and they must trump opinions any time. That is why this website is so important.

  12. paul weldon permalink
    October 27, 2022 9:22 pm

    Only a few days after the Guardian report, I came across this:
    https://www.busiweek.com/somali-government-signs-controversial-coastline-exploration/
    Should the west be demanding a cut from the profits to help them pay compensation? Total hypocrites. Why did the Guardian and the BBC not pick this up and report it?

  13. Geoff Sherrington permalink
    October 28, 2022 12:58 am

    The composite face of greed, sloth, drugs, grog, envy and blackmail is ugly. Alas, far too widespread.
    All nations are capable of pulling themselves up by the bootstraps. Those who have done it badly and fallen behind have only themselves to blame.
    I thought cargo cults died soon after birth around WWII. Those screaming for manna from heaven must know that heaven is a mythical construct of the mind, not a helicopter filled with other peoples’ money.
    Time for mendicants to get off their bums and do some work. Geoff S

  14. cookers52 permalink
    October 28, 2022 9:22 am

    Paul,

    https://climate-change.data.gov.uk/

  15. MrGrimNasty permalink
    October 28, 2022 10:57 am

    For those who have been around for a while, a blast from the past, it’d be interesting to see what the official data says for the same period now, I’m guessing a 45 degree upwards slope instead of a flat line!
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html

    • October 28, 2022 11:24 am

      And the ever-reliable Phil Jones puts his head above the parapet once again. I guess if you have been lying for so long then you have to carry on with the same old, same old.

  16. Gerry, England permalink
    October 28, 2022 2:31 pm

    There is much surprise that there is a third year of La Nina. So a known weather event can’t be predicted with any accuracy in this world of ‘settled’ science?

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