Hot Summer? – Met Office Clowns Have Not Got A Clue!
By Paul Homewood
h/t Ian Magness
The Met Office has given its verdict on reports claiming that “African plumes” could bring multiple heatwaves to the UK this summer with temperatures in excess of 35C.
In a widely reported forecast, Exacta Weather said hot air masses are likely to sweep across Europe between June and September that could repeatedly push the mercury into the thirties in the UK.
Met Office meteorologist Honor Criswick told The Independent that such a scenario would be “unprecedented, but not impossible”.
“We had a similar set-up last summer, though there were additional factors at play, with a high to the east of the UK bringing hot air up from the south/southeast,” the forecaster said.
Asked about the predictions of a scorching summer, Ms Criswick said that, “as always with a longer-range forecast, there is always some uncertainty”.
But she said that there is “a greater than normal chance” of heatwaves in the UK this summer, which is “consistent with our warming climate”.
“Outlook forecasts are for the average conditions over the UK as a whole, for the period as a whole, so we can expect regional variations,” Ms Criswick said.
“So far for May, there is a higher than normal chance of warmer temperatures, however near average or cool conditions remain possible. Looking ahead into June and July, the chance of it being hot is higher than normal however near average temperatures remains the most likely outcome.
“There is also a greater than normal chance of impacts from hot weather such as heatwaves. The increased chance of warm conditions through the period is consistent with our warming climate. Whilst this doesn’t necessarily mean a heatwave will occur, it does increase the likelihood of this compared to normal.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/weather/uk-weather-met-office-heatwave-forecast-b2339586.html
In other words, the clowns have no idea whether it will be hot, average or cold.
Meanwhile, since when were temperatures in the 30s “unprecedented”? It happens most summers.
As for the claim that global warming is making heatwaves more common, does not this silly woman know that heatwaves are the result of meteorological conditions, not climate change. They are caused by high pressure with plenty of sunshine. Climate change has no effect on those factors, and is not making them more common.
That is why last summer was not even as hot as 1976 or 1826.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
They have an idea or two. It’s certainty that they lack.
… and precision.
… and accuracy.
and honesty.
“You should not confuse weather with climate.”
Isn’t that what the zealots tell us?
Of course we know that climate change will cause hotter and wetter summers that will be drier and cooler than the ones forecasted as fact in previous predictions.
If you haven’t already come across them, go looking for the “Ice Saints”. While they vary depending on which European country you live in, their feast days fall between May 11 and May 14 and the one best known in Britain is probably St Pancras whose feast falls on May 12.
True to form this year those four days have produced, in this part of France at least, temperatures at least 4° (both mimimum and maximum) below the May average. I am assured that similar weather conditions have applied across most of Germany and well into Central Europe.
This episode is well-established and the tradition goes back at least 500 years and probably more and has, so far at least, not fallen victim to climate change except that the once relatively common mid-May frosts are now rarer — much to the delight of local wine growers!
Wikipedia has a short article on “ice saints.”
Frost forecast in Northern France.
“In other words, the clowns have no idea whether it will be hot, average or cold.”
Nor do they have a solution for all this weather mayhem. Scaremongering.
Perhaps they will – at last – understand that weather gives us climate, not the other way round. And when we’ve had at least 30 Years’ of heat waves (weather) we might be able to admit that our climate has changed.
What exactly is a “heatwave”? 1976 was the last one in the UK. Yet the “warming” scam continues.
The climate is changeable, no one is arguing that. The UK is bang average, at cool temperate latitude we can get all sorts of weather, it gives us Brits something to talk about. The met office is just another branch of the administration, thus expect them to talk bogus prognostication based on computer generated gigo statistics and to maintain the great green deceit as ordained by the
globalist cabaltheir lackies, the UK government.When I was a boy in the 1950s and 1960s we looked forward to a “ridge of high pressure from the Azores bringing warm settled weather for a few days”
Changing the name of something then hyping it up with climate change works wonders with some people.
Where WERE the Azores? Are they still there?
Can’t speak for now, but they were definitely there in 1591. It says so in that patriotic poem we all had to learn – “At Flores in the Azores, Sir Richard Grenville lay …”
Called an Azores High.
Time for this one I think, courtesy of Sean Thomas back in the day at Bishop Hill, on the Met Office explaining “The Pause” back ion 2013:
“From the overhyped and virtually overheated UK Met Office meeting yesterday where they tried to explain “The Pause” Telegraph blogger Sean Thomas was there and was able to get first hand reports on what was said. Bishop Hill says: “I think we should be worried.”
First, I asked Stephen Belcher, the head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, whether the recent extended winter was related to global warming.
Shaking his famous “ghost stick”, and fingering his trademark necklace of sharks’ teeth and mammoth bones, the loin-clothed Belcher blew smoke into a conch, and replied,
“Here come de heap big warmy. Bigtime warmy warmy. Is big big hot. Plenty big warm burny hot. Hot! Hot hot! But now not hot. Not hot now. De hot come go, come go. Now Is Coldy Coldy. Is ice. Hot den cold. Frreeeezy ice til hot again. Den de rain. It faaaalllll. Make pasty.”
There’s more:
“Hurling the still-beating heart of the chicken into a shallow copper salver, Professor Sutton inhaled the aroma of burning incense, then told the Telegraph: “The seven towers of Agamemnon tremble. Much is the discord in the latitude of Gemini. When, when cry the sirens of doom and love. Speckly showers on Tuesday.””
And for winter time I still love this oldie:
Its late fall and the Indians on a remote reservation in Mattawa asked their new chief if the coming winter was going to be cold or mild.
Since he was a chief in a modern society, he had never been taught the old secrets. When he looked at the sky, he couldn’t tell what the winter was going to be like.
Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he told his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect firewood to be prepared.
But, being a practical leader, after several days, he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the Weather Network and asked, ‘Is the coming winter going to be cold?’
‘It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold,’ the meteorologist at the weather service responded.
So the chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more firewood in order to be prepared.
A week later, he called the Weather Network again. ‘Does it still look like it is going to be a very cold winter?’
‘Yes,’ the man at Weather Service again replied, ‘it’s going to be a very cold winter.’
The chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of firewood they could find.
Two weeks later, the chief called the Weather Network again. ‘Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?’
‘Absolutely,’ the man replied. ‘It’s looking more and more like it is going to be one of the coldest winters we’ve ever seen.’
‘How can you be so sure?’ the chief asked.
The weatherman replied, ‘Because the Indians are collecting a ####load of firewood’
Great, still laughing!
Week 3 in central Pyrenees, for the whole 2 1/2 wks there has been a Northerly airstream, today it snowed over Monte Perdido, 6 degrees this morning.
Met office are no longer plausible.
I toured the Pyrenees twice in early May a few years. First time round I encountered roads blocked by snow as it had yet to melt. The Tourmalet was closed – this was the original road not the new one – and there was snow walking to the Cirque de Garvanie. Crossing the pass into Andorra early in the morning it was cold, damp and a fresh layer of snow had fallen. The second trip was totally different with much less snow so there is annual variation for you.
6 degrees C again this morning near Ainsa.
“consistent with our warming climate”
Such inserted statements in any public announcement make the entire thing suspect.
One can list the last 20 summers, throw a dart, and pick one. If the result comes up wanting, blame the dart thrower. There is always next year.
Well, it’s been a cold spring so far, and now we’re just over 5 weeks from the summer solstice.
Its regularly been 8 or 9 degrees in the morning on my patio thermometer in recent weeks.
And with not much heat the ground is still saturated. A local show that should have been last Sunday was cancelled as both the show field and importantly parking field had puddles. They also mentioned wet parking fields at the NW200 last week.
A cool UK Springtime this year and noticeable absence of Justin Rowlatt excitedly bouncing around in a BBC studio, with tales of “Spring coming earlier each year” and “Summers growing longer”. Apparently this is “exactly what scientists had warned”.
I was looking forward to the day when UK Summer starts in mid December or even late October. A test of the hypothesis embedded in the warnings.
Cold & wet in Southern Italy.
Poor sods riding the Giro have been drenched most days.
They are just talking from climate models. They’ve produced, and probably can’t produce, any observable evidence for their claims.
From my climate model from observations over the last 70 odd years, I predict that the summer will be warm to hot with a few days of very hot weather. Can I collect my knighthood now please?
“…can I collect my knighthood…?”
You forgot the “interrupted by a thunderstorm” bit.
Damn, there goes my chance of being one of Charlie’s people..
Despite the billions spent on flashy computers I get the impression that beyond about 36 hours the forecasts are no better than 50 years ago. And I think the forecasts are influenced by the powers that be. I remember in the sixties and seventies the weekend weather always turned out better than forecast. Presumably the government wanted less traffic jams on the coast routes.
I have heard that Ms Criswick also writes horoscopes as a profitable sideline
Up to £1.2billion for weather and climate supercomputer
The first phase of the new supercomputer will increase the Met Office computing capacity by 6-fold alone. The Met Office will look to deliver at least a further three times increase in supercomputing capacity for years 6-10.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/corporate/2020/supercomputer-funding-2020#:~:text=The%20first%20phase%20of%20the,total%20expected%20investment%20from%20Government.
No comment!
Just to get forecasts wrong six times faster. GIGO. That’s what I call a bargain.
In terms of what’s required technically for proper fine grid scale simulation of climate it won’t make any difference.
They need to be thinking in terms of tens of orders of magnitude faster to make an impact at the scales necessary.
Otherwise, at the resolution required, it’s quicker and cheaper simply to wait 30 years and see how it turns out in the real world. More accurate too….
It doesn’t matter how fast the computer is, it still can’t work.
Anyone who claims that a computer game – er, sorry, climate simulation of an effectively infinitely large open-ended non-linear feedback-driven (where we don’t know all the feedbacks, and even the ones we do know, we are unsure of the signs of some critical ones) chaotic system – hence subject to inter alia extreme sensitivity to initial conditions, strange attractors and bifurcation – is capable of making meaningful predictions over any significant time period is either a charlatan or a computer salesman.
Ironically, the first person to point this out was Edward Lorenz – a climate scientist.
As you increase the number of feed-backs and feed-ons in your model of a system, the number of ‘paths of influence’ which your model has to specifically recognise and parameterize – ways in which cause and effect can ripple through the system – quickly becomes essentially infinite. There is NO SUCH THING as a definite positive or negative ‘engineer’s feedback’ in any complicated model of an open dynamic situation. And if you are using a discretized model of a continuous system…
It is the same thing in all fields of forecasting. Go complicated and fail. Use step-by-step simulations and fail. Use ‘scenarios’ (picking one of your simulations and believing in it) and fail. Use Nostradamus and fail (but have fun for a while thinking you have the key to the universe.)
In other words, “We’re not quite sure about this summer’s weather but, having looked at our new super duper billion pound plus ouija climate computer, we can confidently predict that if you don’t give up milk, beef and swap your trusty diesel for a sexy Tesla, the weather could be really iffy by 2050”.
Ah, don’t you just love the great sciencey people running the Met Office?
hahaha! Now that was funny! There could be heat waves, but it could be average with cooler spells…. (but its all due to our warmer climate)
There was a piece in the Daily Mail on Monday by Tomasz Shafernaker, a BBC weatherman. Most of it was rubbish, especially when he mentioned ‘last summer’s blistering heat was astonishing’. Well it wasn’t blistering heat here in Cheshire, we had two hot days on the 18th and 19th of July. The only sensible thing he says in his article is that when people ask him for the weather forecast he can’t go wrong with ‘changeable’.