China Emissions Rose By 5.2% Last Year
By Paul Homewood
From Carbon Brief
China’s energy sector carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increased 5.2% in 2023, meaning a record fall of 4-6% is needed by 2025 to meet the government’s “carbon intensity” target.
The new analysis for Carbon Brief, based on official figures and commercial data, shows rapid electricity demand growth and weak rains boosted demand for coal power in 2023, while the rebound from zero-Covid boosted demand for oil.
Other key findings from the analysis include:
- China’s CO2 emissions have now increased by 12% between 2020 and 2023, after a highly energy- and carbon-intensive response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
- This means CO2 emissions would need to fall by 4-6% by 2025, in order to meet the target of cutting China’s carbon intensity – its CO2 emissions per unit of economic output – by 18% during the 14th five-year plan period.
- China is also at risk of missing all of its other key climate targets for 2025, including pledges to “strictly limit” coal demand growth and “strictly control” new coal power capacity, as well as targets for energy intensity, the share of low-carbon energy in overall demand and the share of renewables in energy demand growth.
- Government pressure to hit the targets, most of which are in China’s updated international climate pledge under the Paris Agreement, makes it more likely that China’s CO2 emissions will peak before 2025 – far earlier than its target of peaking “before 2030”.
According to preliminary official data, China’s total energy consumption increased by 5.7% in 2023, the first time since at least 2005 that energy demand has grown faster than GDP.
With coal consumption growing by 4.4%, our analysis shows CO2 emissions increasing by 5.2% – at the same rate as GDP – highlighting energy-intensive recent growth patterns.
China’s economic growth during and after the Covid-19 pandemic has been highly energy- and carbon-intensive. CO2 emissions grew at an average of 3.8% per year in 2021-23, up from 0.9% a year in 2016-20, while GDP growth slowed from an average of 5.7% to 5.4%.
Another year of rapidly rising emissions in 2023 leaves China way off track against its target of cutting carbon intensity by 18% during the 14th five-year plan (2021-25).
As a result, CO2 emissions would now need to fall by 4-6% by 2025 to hit the goal. This is illustrated in the figure below, showing historical emissions (blue line) and the reductions needed by 2025 to hit the carbon intensity target, depending on the rate of GDP growth.
Even if China’s GDP growth is high and averages 6% per year in 2024-25, the intensity target requires CO2 emissions to fall by 4%.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-record-drop-in-chinas-co2-emissions-needed-to-meet-2025-target/
The idea that this is all some sort of bounce back from COVID is patently absurd, as there never really was a drop off in 2020. As the graph shows, the rate of increase has been steadily rising for years.
In simple numbers, CO2 emissions are now 11.7% higher than in 2019, pre pandemic.
None of this should surprise anybody, but apparently it still does.
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
It will be interesting to see their next five-year plan.
More CO2 emissions – they know AGW based on CO2 is a falling apart hoax
I can think of dozens of things, many very serious, about which I continually criticise the CCP.
Increasing CO2 emissions isn’t one of them, even if they must laugh about it when the say they are reducing, or will reduce CO2 emissions.
I wish we had a few Fearless Leaders who cared a toss about our economy and our population.
China is trying to reduce its CO2 emissions “intensity” which is CO2 emissions per unit of GDP. By growing GDP faster than emissions they meet their commitment. Western politicians just want to reduce emissions and not be bothered with what their mitigation strategies do to GDP. That is until the working class revolts.
No, Sean.
That is what China SAYS they are doing.
Are you suggesting that Xi Jinping is really thick enough to believe in the CO2 hoax?
I have no doubt he laughs himself to sleep every night when thinking about Sunak, Biden, Scholz, van de Leyden and all the other virtue signalling clowns.
Xi wants to be a super power and he’s started with manufacturing prowess. For the first two decades of this century, China was focused on heavy industrial production. Since 2020, its been working on moving up the value chain of finished products like EV’s, windmills and solar panels. They want to dominate the markets the west wants to mandate. High tech finished products produce a lot more value for amount of energy used. The west assumed they would make what they mandated but Xi knows China has many competitive advantages in manufacturing and he’s happy to dominate the “sustainable” high margin industries.
So let’s put that increase into perspective: how many times the UK’s total emissions is it?
5.2% of 2022’s 10,550 m tonnes of strictly CO2 emission is 549 m tonnes.
5.2% of 2022’s 11,877 m tonnes of CO2e emissions is 617 m tonnes.
UK CO2e emissions for 2023 are provisionally 384.2 m tonnes, and CO2 322 m tonnes.
So that’s 1.705 times the CO2 emissions and 1.605 times the CO2e emissions.
The real measure is that UK and other countries have exported their CO2 emissions. Only have to look at electric cars and steel as just two examples. And who is biggest supplier? China. Our government is run by loonies who have little comprehension of where this ultimately ends. And it’s not good for UK limited.
Let’s never forget that CO2 doesn’t matter. Nor that there is not the slightest chance that the Keeling curve will be checked
The keeling curve is further empirical proof that our atmospheric CO2 is still dangerously low and we should be doubling efforts to double, or better, treble it, to the point of plant optimal growth
A quick calc says the China increase is nearly double UK’s entire output.
658,706 increase vs 340,610 UK total. But y’all keep chasing Netty Zero.
Thanks Gamecock. Makes our efforts look utterly ridiculous, analogous to not peeing in the ocean to reduce SLR!!
Are UK, France and Germany still superpowers?
China’s economic growth during and after the Covid-19 pandemic has been highly energy- and carbon-intensive.
No kidding. Find a major country anywhere with China-style economic growth and declining energy use.
China misses its target? So what? Who will do anything about it? Will the US send Lurch to lecture them? Assuming they can be bothered to see him. Having Donald back in the White House will see reshoring grow again and that might actually help China reduce emissions and help increase the US emissions.
Both China and Russia must be laughing their heads off at silly Western Governments!
New metric alert: UK total emissions are 0.51 of China emission increase.
A “Chenc”?
How many Chencs to a Wadhams?
President Xi has made it clear he will not allow climate goals to interfere with economic growth, and why should he? Present Chinese policies have raised ten’s of millions out of poverty and made China the economic powerhouse it is today. The real political imperative in China (and soon in India) is concern about pollution which is being addressed by a dash for gas plus green renewables. It’s very similar to the U.K. in the 1950’s.
Those EVs won’t build themselves!
Even in a country with the most renewable capacity installed 😀
To be fair, China are to be applauded for continuing to remedy our globes atmospheric CO2 deficiency – they do not buy into the globalist AGW and it’s arrogant child, the net zero con
In other news (Japan Times) we learn:-
Cherry blossoms bloom in Tokyo, 15 days later than last yearThis year’s blooming is the latest in the capital since 2012, when they were declared to have blossomed on March 31.
I wonder what all the activist “Scientists” have to say about that?
Two weeks early in Washington, two weeks late in Tokyo. This dang climate change just can’t get its act together.
Yup.
Billions fill their boots with more looted gold.
Politicians scream.
“Experts” tear their hair.
Activists wave their shrouds.
But that Ol’ Climate just keeps on a’doing whatta Climate’s gotta do!
Haven’t most Countries in effect out-sourced their CO2 emissions to China?
UK boasts better than average CO2 emissions but this corresponds with some manufacturing industry shutting down and goods imported instead from Chiba instead.
I wonder if we will see this reported by the “impartial” BBC…..?
China are to be congratulated on this – their efforts on global greening are not in vain