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Are English Droughts Getting Worse

February 7, 2012
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood

 

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DEFRA, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs recently issued the Climate Change Risk Assessment Report for the UK. Its findings conclude :-

 

By the 2080’s, the UKCP09 projections for different parts of the UK suggest: an increase in average summer temperatures of between about 1C and 8C: an increase in average winter rainfall volumes of between around 3% and 70%: a projected change in average summer rainfall volumes ranging from a decrease of about 60% to an increase of about 10%.

Their error ranges are so large as to hardly give any confidence, but what does the historical data show? We have already seen that there is no evidence of increasing rainfall in winter. What about summer droughts then? The UK Met Office graph below clearly shows there is no downward trend in summer rainfall levels.

 

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/actualmonthly/

 

The south and east of the country tend to be drier and more prone to drought, so could drier conditions there be masked by wetter ones elsewhere? Not according to the Met Office data.

 

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Barbecue summers, anyone?

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4 Comments leave one →
  1. February 9, 2012 3:28 am

    Great blog, thanks for all the info.

    Using my 11 billion dollar computer model (Zimbabwe dollars) It is somewhat likely there will be worse floods and no floods in the future (+/-120%).

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