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Cooling The Past In Holland

April 9, 2015

By Paul Homewood


de bilt


De Bilt is the only long running temperature station in the Netherlands used by GISS. (Maastricht Airport only goes back to 1991).

In 2011, using the GHCN V2 database, GISS showed the raw temperature record as per the graph above, We can see the all too familiar pattern of warm years in the 1930’s and 40’s, followed by a much colder interval, and then a recovery since the 1980’s.

GHCN decided that this could obviously not be right, and adjusted it to this:




Now that certainly looks a lot more like it!





Altogether, temperatures prior to 1950 have been adjusted down by as much as 1C.

Now, of course, it may be possible that the original temperature record was in error. But the funny thing is that similar adjustments have been made at every other nearby station, with records prior to 1950. (Aachen and Lille have no data between 1900 and the 1990’s).








Just as with De Bilt, these three stations share the same sharp drop in temperatures in the 1950’s, and they have all been adjusted to show a steady warming trend which was not present in the original data.


As George Orwell might have said, “He who cools the past warms the present. He who warms the present controls the future”

  1. April 9, 2015 2:12 pm

    Using your George Orwell theme, it seems that the History department from 1984 exists and is winning again yet that was supposed to be communism!

    It is a pity that the values on the y-axes change from original to adjusted data as this makes comparison more difficult, (but still clearly wild fiddles): wish my computer skills stretched to altering the graphics to a simpler format.

  2. April 9, 2015 4:00 pm

    The De Bilt station is hometown to KNMI, therefore well sited and maintained.

  3. April 9, 2015 4:14 pm

    De Bilt was part of the World Class stations trend analysis. We used CruTem4 data.

  4. April 9, 2015 4:30 pm

    Hi, see Steve McIntyre’s and my take on De Bilt

    • A C Osborn permalink
      April 9, 2015 6:18 pm

      Hans, looking at Uccle it would appear that quite a large part of the Temperature drop around 1950/51 was in fact Climatic, so GISS/GHCN should not have removed all of it from De Bilt.
      They should certainly not have removed any of it from Uccle without a similar station shift as that of De Bilt.
      Your analysis, and Steve Mc shows what is wrong with the “one size fits all” nature of GISS/GHCN adjustments.

  5. Ben Vorlich permalink
    April 9, 2015 4:35 pm

    In order to maintain a warming trend, at some point the Hottest Year Ever (aka 2014) will have to be cooled. When this happens there is a chance some of the MSM and BBC junior reporters who visit sites like this might notice that 2014 has been cooled and 201x isn’t as warm as 2014 was claimed to be. Even a few people asking “What happened to 2014 then?” should cause a bit of embarrassed foot shuffling.

  6. April 9, 2015 4:58 pm

    dank je wel Paul!

  7. E. Martin permalink
    April 9, 2015 5:10 pm

    “He who controls the present, (obviously) controls the past” — apologies to Orwell.

    • April 9, 2015 5:32 pm

      Soviet saying: “The future is certain, it’s only the past that keeps changing.”

  8. AndyG55 permalink
    April 9, 2015 9:46 pm

    Gavin hit Paraguay last year with changes to the past to create the “hottest ever”, maybe, perhaps, 2014.

    Where will it be that gets the Schmidt treatment this year ?

  9. April 10, 2015 6:17 am

    Paul and “temperature fiddle” sleuths, Can Benford’s Law be applied to fiddled climate statistics ? It is a forensic science trick which can detect accountancy fraud.
    In seems natural large datasets form a pattern, whereby the most frequent first digit will be a “1” 30% of the time etc. And somehow this still applies event if you apply divisions when converting to another currency etc.
    – It only works when the data is spread through wide magnitudes so maybe temperature data is too limited, typically being between -30+30.

    Other people have thought about it before
    1. Arch alarmist David Appell poo pooed idea in 2012 (but if DA has though about it then it’s likely fiddlers have also and taken action to cover tracks)
    2. Also in 2011 Dec : E.M.Smith talked about it but probably never got around to it

    ASIDE : You know David Spiegelhalter the guy who should should be debunking alarmist propagada stats, but instead on BishopHill used the excuse that he focuses on medical stats. (ie he’s busy busy ), he explained Benford’s Law when he was on the Naked Scientists Radio show before Easter
    … that was after he was on the BBC TV Horizon propg which papered over the flaws with Climate Change data,
    Since then he has been R4 Woman’s Hour and R3 Free Thinking plugging his new book
    Sex By Numbers

  10. April 10, 2015 6:37 am

    Interesting comment in Chiefo’s blog Jason Calley says: December 2011 at 12:45 am
    “I have heard that a good place to look for errors in the record is in the Soviet measurements. Apparently, many of the cities in the northern Siberian region of the USSR were allocated coal and oil based on their climatic needs, i.e., on “how cold does it get there each winter?” The colder the city, the more coal and oil it got….so what do you think happened to their temperature measurements? Yup…outright fraudulently low records. Once the Soviets fell in the early 1990s, the reported temperatures became untied from resource allocations and there was a remarkable, uh, “warming” in the reports.
    Funny how these things work.”

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