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More Nonsense About Heatwaves

May 2, 2015

By Paul Homewood  




More nonsense coming off the conveyer belt in time for Paris!

From the BBC:


England is set for more record-breaking warm years like 2014, say scientists.

The chances of England experiencing an exceptionally warm year is 13 times more likely due to human influences on climate, a study suggests.

2014 was the UK’s warmest since records began in 1910.

The research, published in Environmental Research Letters, is based on climate models and temperature records for England dating back to 1659.

Dr Andrew King from the University of Melbourne is the lead researcher.

"Both of our approaches showed that there is a significant and substantial increase in the likelihood of very warm years occurring in central England," he said.

Dr Peter Stott, of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said the new findings added to evidence that human-induced climate change was increasing the chances of record-breaking temperatures around the world, including in the UK.

"At the Met Office we produced similar research late last year showing how climate change had made UK record breaking temperatures about 10 times more likely," he said.

"The fact that what might seem relatively modest rises in temperature around the world are causing quite dramatic increases in the likelihood of extreme temperatures may seem surprising but this is a well understood feature of how changes in mean temperatures affect extremes."

2014 was the warmest year on record, with global temperatures 0.68C (1.24F) above the long-term average.

It was also the UK’s warmest since records began in 1910.


All they seem to be saying is that if the world warms up, so will Britain. Stott’s attempt to hype up “extreme temperatures” is, of course, nonsense, as he fails to explain that extreme cold temperatures will become less frequent.


Meanwhile, back to the real world!


Following the step up in UK temperatures in the 1980’s, also seen over much of Europe, there has been virtually no trend (the red line) in the Central England Temperature series.




As we already know, the “record” year of 2014 was merely the combination of weather events, with no unusually warm months at all, merely the absence of cold ones, (see here.)


As for those summer heatwaves, the summer of 1976 still holds the record, and there is little indication we are going to turn into Torremolinos anytime soon!




Meanwhile, it’s May and I’ve still got the central heating on!

  1. igsy permalink
    May 2, 2015 3:59 pm

    Yes, summer temperatures have been effectively trendless over the entire series, which began, it should be remembered, during the Little Ice Age. Now, if people in their millions were to start taking photos of their feet on beaches during an English winter, then perhaps there might be some justification to the rhetoric in the article.

  2. May 2, 2015 4:40 pm

    I have my central heating on here in Devon. I’m considering using the wood burning stove, but I won’t as I have cleaned it out for the summer.

    • May 2, 2015 5:06 pm

      Don’t worry, I have bought a patrol generator to be able to carry on with life whenever there is a power cut, which happens frequently here (South Africa). I say: more carbon is OK.
      I am sitting in the same boat, according to my data sets there was never any warming here, [in southern Africa], only cooling. So it is getting cooler here….faster then anywhere else.

      • mwhite permalink
        May 3, 2015 7:50 am

        How much does a litre of petrol cost in South Africa. £1.12 yesterday here in the UK

      • May 3, 2015 8:16 am

        I have an LPG generator to carry on whenever there are power cuts.

      • AndyG55 permalink
        May 3, 2015 10:58 am

        I live a short distance from a major electricity substation, powered from the Hunter Valley coal fired power stations.

        I love to walk down to the railway and watch the 94 wagon coal trains heading to the Newcastle ports at Port Waratah and Kooragang for export.

        I KNOW that Australia, particularly Newcastle, is doing its little bit to increase the supply of beneficial atmospheric CO2. 🙂

  3. May 2, 2015 4:42 pm

    Read the study. Very poor. Took CET variability (highs) and applied it to the CMIP5 ‘ensemble’ trend. If the averge trend goes up so will the number of new extreme highs. But the actual temperatures are not rising now since 18 years, and that same pause falsifies the models from which this prediction is made. Both the stadium wave and the AMO cycle predict cooling and fewer ‘hot’ summer days in central England until the mid 2030’s.

    • manicbeancounter permalink
      May 2, 2015 9:39 pm

      There was a BBC series a few years ago (Climate Wars?) where more warming was going to cause more extreme highs. The presenter drew a normal distribution chart. But he also explained that the weather would become more extreme. So the expectation would be for extreme highs to outpace the warming growth. The illustration was the 2003 European Heatwave, which we would expect to become far more frequent.

      • Le Gin permalink
        May 3, 2015 8:46 am

        …and in 2003 Horizon did a programme called the “The Big Chill”, which looked at the possibility of a series of events occuring that resulted in the Gulf Stream weakening and Britains temperature becoming much colder.

        Crikey, remember when you could see a balanced discussion about climate and climate change!

  4. Allan M permalink
    May 2, 2015 5:17 pm

    I read somewhere that there hasn’t been a single UK daytime maximum over 30ºC since 2006. If this is correct, where are the heatwaves?

    • May 2, 2015 5:29 pm

      That’s right. We’ve only had one day over 29C since 2006, I think in 2013.

    • May 3, 2015 3:08 pm

      1976 had nine 30C and over days in HADCET maxtemp.– and one stretch of 7 in a row.

      Year Days Longest Heatwave
      1976 9 7
      1995 5 4
      1975 4 2
      1906 3 3
      1948 3 3
      2006 3 2
      1923 2 2
      1990 2 2

  5. Kelvin Vaughan permalink
    May 2, 2015 6:05 pm

    All 68 years of my life I’ve been hearing this. I’m still waiting for it to happen.

  6. May 2, 2015 7:36 pm

    Dr Peter Stott, of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said the new findings added to evidence that human-induced climate change was increasing the chances of record-breaking temperatures around the world, including in the UK.

    GIMP5 sorry CMIP5 is figment of a programmers delusions that some theoretical co2 knob makes the weather turn ‘on and offable’. It’s like saying Alice in Wonderland is real because it has real elements like a girl and a queen and a rabbit. It’s fiction dang it!!! Unless your models can replicate earth systems, which they fail at, then it is fiction not ‘evidence’. The only evidence shown by this report and the Met Office’s fawning response is that they are still committed to the ‘Big Lie’ and are going to keep repeating it at every opportunity (and take offence when you point this out to them).

  7. tom0mason permalink
    May 3, 2015 4:28 am

    And from an organization that can barely get a 6 day weather forecast correct 60% of the time, we have this —

    “At the Met Office we produced similar research late last year showing how climate change had made UK record breaking temperatures about 10 times more likely,”

    Good grief who are these climate-astrologers charlatans trying to con.

  8. May 3, 2015 9:39 am

    Peter Stott at the Met Office is the clown who appeared frequently in the media during the Somerset flooding last year claiming it was linked to man made emissions. Despite asking him numerous times on the Met Office website to substantiate those claims with data, he as refused. This man is a charlatan.

    • AndyG55 permalink
      May 3, 2015 11:19 am

      If you do a search, you will find that Stott has very close ties with the climatiratia in BOM in Australia.

      Names like Karoly, England etc etc keep popping up as well.

      In fact, I think Stott had something to do with implementing the homogenisations data fudges in Australia.

      Stott of course has close ties with Phil Jones, and almost certainly with Gavin and the data fabricators in the US.

      Its one big incestuous pot.

  9. Coeur de Lion permalink
    May 3, 2015 11:42 am

    The UK Armed Forces have a useful and interesting magazine to which Mr Rob Varley, the Head of the UK Met Office, contributed a three-page article in the last issue. It was somewhat warmist/alarmist – I append my letter to the Editor:

    My Dear Editor,
    Congratulations on a splendid issue for May 2015!
    I have one massive quibble which you won’t have the space to print! As a naval officer and yachtsman, I have been a customer of the Met Office for over sixty years and would not wish to see its reputation diminished. I believe it needs a period of reflection about its website content where it deals with ‘climate change’. The article on pps 48-50 by Rob Varley, Chief Executive, attracts the following comments. I am copying this letter to him.
    – Even climate change sceptics agree that the globe has warmed by 0.85degC in about 140 years. I note that the rate of change between 1910 and 1940 on his graph is as steep or steeper than 1970 to today, when CO2 concentration was negligible. He does not mention the fact that the globe has not warmed for 220 months – an awkward fact just visible on his graph and which destroys the credibility of the many models used by alarmists.
    – ‘2014 the warmest year’ has been much challenged. He does not say ‘by how much’. The answer is 0.02 of a degree – it is not good scientific practice to quote numbers smaller than the error figure. The Met Office HADCRUT4 data are statistically indistinguishable from other years in the past decade. But it is convenient for alarmists to keep the narrative going.
    – It is not mentioned that 1850 marks the end of the Little Ice Age which ‘cherry picks’ the ‘warming’ since that date. The Medieval Warming Period is not mentioned tho’ warmer than now.
    – ‘Arctic sea ice, mountain glaciers and snow cover are shrinking’ I notice ‘Antarctic sea ice’ is not mentioned, presumably because it is increasing and this year exceeds by twice the standard deviation the previous mean. A better and more accurate graph than his of the decline in Arctic ice can be found at the Sea Ice Update page of the website in which rather encouragingly it is shown that the decline has stabilised, ice is thickening, and we are back to 2008 coverage.
    – Mountain glaciers have been receding since 1850. A couple of clicks will get you, for example, the Swiss record of the Rhone glacier which has its steepest melt 1866-1870 and the slope of recession to today is constant despite CO2 increase. (see also Summary of Peer Reviewed Research)
    – ‘Warming oceanic waters are expanding’ It is generally accepted that the sea level has risen about seven inches since the end of the Little Ice Age. The world’s sea level expert, Dr Nils Axel Morner’s work has abstracts in various places and his latest paper is available online. Conservation of angular momentum in the globe’s rotation verifies the seven inches, but there has been an acceleration in the last fifty years and Morner believes that there has been no sea level rise in that time, possibly a fall. His prediction of a sea level rise by 2100 of + 5cm + – 15 cm must be reassuring to those alarmed by Al Gore’s discredited movie An Inconvenient Truth. The single Hong Kong tide gauge scandal is exposed.
    – I’m glad there’s no mention of the ‘97%’ of scientists who agree with man-made global warming, recently quoted by President Obama, no less. I expect Rob Varley has read Jose Duarte – his devastating exposure of the multiple frauds in the famous Cook et al study which has had so much coverage. Worse than the Mann et al ‘hockey stick’ and ‘climategate’ disasters. Instead see for 31,487 US scientists who disagree and their evidence.
    – I note that comment on the effects on weather are muted. The IPCC agrees. But I recently heard a member of the Royal Society lying to John Humphreys on the Today programme about Cyclone Pam. A couple of clicks gets up the tracks, barometrics and velocities of all South Pacific cyclones for the last 40 years. Not exceptional, not global warming.
    – no mention of the wonderful benefits to the biosphere of the increase in CO2 already measured. It’s a greenhouse gas and a plant food!
    – I wonder how we are to ‘limit the global average temperature rise to no more than 2degC’ given the apparent disconnect between warming and CO2 levels. I saw recently a dispassionate study by BP of the mix of energy production worldwide for the next century. Thank goodness it included massive consumption of fossil fuels by developing countries – without which famine, disease, poverty would predominate.

    What are my qualifications for talking about ‘Climate Change’ – which used to be ‘Global Warming’? Well, I have a recent first class honours degree in history from Southampton University, majoring on the Dead Sea Scrolls and Palestine in the Roman Period. That’s as good as the recently resigned under dubious circumstances Head of the IPCC, Rajenda Pachauri’s degree in Railway Engineering.

    With best wishes

    • July 18, 2015 1:54 pm

      great summary of the situation, but the converts will not even thing that the religion might have flaws unfortunately. It does seem that the economic truths that Paul has been exposing for months are coming through now so maybe….

  10. May 3, 2015 2:50 pm

    The Guardian is running this story as
    “England faces major rise in record hot years due to climate change – scientists ”

    Interestingly the moderators are removing lots of comments, I wonder why?
    Check it out, the number of removals is astounding.

  11. John F. Hultquist permalink
    May 3, 2015 2:55 pm

    Paul mentions in a comment above: “ … one day over 29C …”

    So, that is about 86° F. Most people in the world do not consider such temperature extremely hot, or even hot. Warm might be the best adjective.
    There are vulnerable people that will need help on days hotter than this but England will survive. (Not that I expect much change in the weather, anyway.)

  12. Gary H permalink
    May 3, 2015 4:13 pm

    Same here in the US – as President Obama has been telling us – in every corner of the country folks are experiencing more frequent and worse extreme heat waves.

  13. Roy Hartwell permalink
    May 3, 2015 6:53 pm

    ‘0.68 degrees above the average’ FFS don’t these people understand what an ‘average’ is !!!!!

  14. TonyM permalink
    May 4, 2015 2:03 am

    “Dr Peter Stott, of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said the new findings added to evidence that human-induced climate change was increasing the chances of record-breaking temperatures around the world, including in the UK. ”

    At last a climatologist admits he considers output from computers as “evidence”. This from models that have predicted absolutely nothing so far!

  15. July 18, 2015 11:53 am

    Hi Paul, I just did an update of the Global Decadal Climate Bet (Gosselin vs Honeycutt) that the decade beginning Jan 2011 would be significantly warmer than the decade beginning Jan 2001. (based on the average of UAH and RSS). No alarm visible … unless of course your job or ego depends on it.


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