In The Bleak Midwinter!
By Paul Homewood
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2015/solar-activity
According to the latest paper on the “grand solar minimum”, the effect on global temperatures would be minimal:
The relative annual global mean near-surface temperature change for the period 2050–2099 is a cooling of 0.13 and 0.12 °C for EXPT-A and EXPT-B, respectively. This offsets or delays the global warming trend by ~2 years and is small compared with the modelled global warming.
Note that this would imply warming of around 6C by 2100.
However, all of this glosses over the potentially severe impact on US and European temperatures. The paper projects that a solar minimum could reduce winter temperatures there by 0.8C.
If we take the 30-year winter trends for the Central England Temperature Series, we can see that such a drop would take us back down to mid 19thC levels, not a very pleasant prospect.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html
The expectation, according to the paper, is that GHG will lead to much warmer winters, offsetting the cooling effect of a potential grand minimum. However, there is no evidence of there having been any real trend in the last century in UK winter temperatures.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly
This hardly inspires much confidence in the model projections.
Snow a thing of the past anyone?
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
I notice that the study uses RCP 8.5, (which assumes the “high end” of future CO2 concentrations).
Given the fact that observed temperatures are struggling to match “low end” concentration RCPs, I wonder what the findings would have been if they had used RCP 2.6.
Way too scary!!
Thanks, Paul.
In their next reincarnation the Met will again earn their keep forecasting catastrophic, man-made global cooling.
The UKMet are hoping the Russians are wrong;
http://thermalscience.vinca.rs/online-first/1524
Direct link to full paper;
Click to access TSCI140902018A.pdf
Rather than just reporting Greenblob is going out to dirty PR to play up natural global waming and spin down solar cooling.
I just added a comment about that Guardian article you mentioned that i found had been stealth edited.
CO2 seems to have more absorbancy bands than the familiar 2.7, 4.3 and 15 micron bands. The ones I’ve read of are in the deep UV between 198 and 270 nm also 6 moderate bands of near IR over 1.4 to 2.1 m. To me this seems CO2 shields the surface from far more high energy solar photons than it ‘backradiates’ low energy photons to the surface.
Anyone here heard of this?
The Four Known Scientific Ways Carbon Dioxide Cools Earth’s Climate | Principia Scientific Intl
“Experts from the ‘hard’ sciences are again revealing how climate ‘scientists’ have gotten it wrong about the role of carbon dioxide (CO2) in climate.
Dr Pierre R Latour, a renowned American Chemical Engineer, shows how four known mechanisms and three laws of nature prove why CO2 cools, not warms, our atmosphere. Moreover, it may be shown that the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the supposed world authority deferred to by governments, lacks a rigorous mathematical description for their so-called ‘greenhouse gas theory’.”
http://www.principia-scientific.org/the-four-known-scientific-ways-carbon-dioxide-cools-earth-s-climate.html
You guys across the Pond have a meteorologist who seems to get it right much more often than your “MET”:
Piers Corbyn: The Reality of Long Range Weather and Climate Forecasting | EU2014 | thunderbolts.info
“In his talk, Piers Corbyn described the failure of standard meteorology (SM) in outlook, theory, and practice. He included: signals in real meteorology data unexplained by SM; real role of jet stream, stratosphere, electro-jets, magnetosphere, solar wind, solar corona, and the Moon; the total inability of SM to explain: sudden stratospheric warmings and its consequences, tropical storm intensifications, angular momentum concentration in tornadoes; and the need for something else such as electromagnetic plasma explanations; the theoretical basis of non-standard long range weather forecasting on a real planet; a summary on his WeatherAction forecasting skill and examples; and the future of forecasting and meteorology, climate ‘science’ and science in general.
Piers Corbyn began recording weather and climate patterns at the age of five, constructing his own observation equipment. He obtained a first-class honors degree in physics at Imperial College London. In 1969, he became the first president of the Imperial College Students’ Union to be directly elected by the student body. He later studied astrophysics in 1979 at Queen Mary College, London, and then began examining the relationship between Earth’s weather and climate and solar activity. Following many years of weather prediction as an occupation, Piers formed WeatherAction in 1995, where he sells web-accessible long-range monthly forecasts for Britain and Ireland, Europe, and the USA plus special forecasts of ‘Red Weather periods’ and related increases in thunder/tornado and earthquake risk.”
http://www.weatheraction.com
https://www.thunderbolts.info/wp/2014/04/29/piers-corbyn-the-reality-of-long-range-weather-and-climate-forecasting-eu2014/
given that 20x more people die from cold then warm temperatures (aka weather), brushing this possible multi-decade cooling off the table is inexcusable…
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(14)62114-0/abstract