UK Weather Trends

Guest Post by Neil Catto.

 

Neil has been a senior meteorologist at Weather Research Ltd for the last 17 years, and is a fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society.

      

   

 

UK Weather, Misconceptions & Consequences 

For years we have been told, by such eminent organisations such as the UKMO that the Earth is warming due to man-made emission of CO2. We are also told the frequency and strength of storms is increasing because of man-made climate change. We will experience more flooding and more droughts, but I guess these will not occur at the same time!

The UK government has been duly informed by scientists from the UKMO that we are experiencing AGW on a dangerous scale due to emissions of man made CO2 produced by industrialisation. In 2008 the UK government introduced a bill in parliament called the Climate Change Act which limited emission of CO2 in-line with EU recommendations to prevent dangerous climate change. The EU says the UK has to cut it’s CO2 emissions by 80%. [Note – the original target was a 60% cut, in line with EU recommendations; it was Ed Miliband who went further to 80% with the urging of Bryony Worthington]

The UK government has taken measures to limit CO2 emissions by allowing installation of thousands of wind turbines and acres of solar panels to generate electricity. They have closed many coal fired power stations and have more cuts planned.

As a nation we have been teaching indoctrinating our children, for the last 20 years, about anthropogenic global warming (renamed climate change) and the drastic consequences this will incur for the world.

There have been many (hundreds, if not thousands as long as they mention AGW), studies by academics in the UK over the last 20 years as to the effect of climate change on many subjects. These include migration of birds, migration patterns of butterflies, how tree species are affected, and huge declines in populations of nearly every species you can think of.

My research involves study of how the weather affects living organisms from simple small molecules to complex humans. Since 1998 I have been collecting weather data from various sources on a daily basis for 27 locations geographically spread across the UK as part of my research. I use 10 of these locations as a reasonable representation of the UK climate (long term weather).

After Figure 1, which shows the 10 locations used for statistical analysis, there are 8 plots of UK daily weather patterns for pressure, temperature, wind speed, sunshine, rainfall volume and duration and relative humidity covering the last almost 17 years (6,153 days). The final plot Fig 9 is a natural index (N–Index) I have developed which includes gases, heat, photons, pressure and relative humidity. It shows strong correlations with photosynthetic growth, has strong correlation with human behaviour in terms of well-being and also strongly correlates with the natural influence of consumer behaviour.

Figure 10 shows a time series of the UKMO Central England Temperature CET.

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

Figure 7

Figure 8

Figure 9

 

Observations show us the weather over the last 17 years in the UK has been very stable. The predictions, or projections as they like to call them, made by the UKMO for the last 17 years, have been wrong on every aspect. There has been no rise in temperatures, no increase of storms (wind, pressure & rainfall), no increase of rainfall (volume or duration) connected to flooding, no increase in drought conditions, and we have seen snowfall every year, although the UKMO told us we wouldn’t.

Considering there has been a steady rise in carbon dioxide (CO2) levels over this period of time (1998-2015) and temperatures have been flat, one can consider the theory of >CO2 driving up temperatures is very weak. (CO2 is a gas, not as frequently described in MSM, NGOs and government circles as carbon which of course is a solid). As all climate change models use the >CO2 >temperature theory it is little wonder that all these models do not reflect the realty of observation.

Even the UKMO own data shows a flat temperature trend which extends to 26 years.

 

Fig 10 UKMO CET time series for the last 26 years

 

Conclusions:

When making policy decisions about climate change in the UK would you use global data? Or would you use data which better represents the UK?

>CO2 increasing temperature theory is VERY WEAK, based on both UK and a global scale observations (global >18 years with no temperature trend increase). Yes, temperatures go up, we have been recovering from the little ice age since about 1650, but they also go down. If they go down and CO2 is still increasing where does that put their theory? I suggest in the bin.

In response to the predictions made by the UKMO, the UK government has drastically changed its energy generation policy. There has been a huge increase of UNRELIABLE wind and solar, and closure of reliable and inexpensive coal fire power stations. Because of the vast amount of subsidies given to wind and solar the cost of UK energy has risen greatly over the last decade. These decisions along with ridiculous strike price for the building of the new nuclear plant at Hinkley.

On the NHS web site is says CO2 levels only become dangerous to humans >3,000 ppm. With current levels at 398 ppm, we have a long way to go before CO2 becomes a dangerous gas to humans. CO2 has huge beneficial effects for the growth of plants. That is why, fruit and vegetable farmers pump CO2 into their greenhouses up to levels >1000 ppm to improve growth and yield.

Will the UK government abolish the Climate Change Act? It is a ruinous act for UK Plc.

Is the government going to remove subsidies for unreliable wind and solar energy, start fracking and negotiate reasonable strike rates for new nuclear power stations? Perhaps we can get back to reasonable process for our energy.

Every person born in the UK since 1989 (now aged 26) has never experienced a statistically significant increase of temperature. Which means all our children who have gone through the education system to graduate level and beyond has not experienced what they have been told indoctrinated is happening. Is the Government going to demand our education providers to teach proper science to our children about long term weather and climate change using observations and the scientific method and not just from invalid model outputs from a very weak, if not invalid theory? And is the government going to stop our education providers spouting continuous dire consequences which have never materialised based on computer projections and not proper science? People are not as stupid as our educators’ think they are.

Are academic institutions conducting research going to return to using real observations rather than invalid model predictions to understand how their studies are really affected? If they think climate change is the cause of a problem, then they are missing the real cause of the supposed problem.

Both our UK government and our educational establishments have been duped by a media which just wants sensationalism, particularly the BBC and NGOs whose motive appears to be far from their original aims. Our weather (short term) and climate (long term) is very stable. Not worth writing about really!