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UAH Temperatures Drop In November

December 2, 2015

By Paul Homewood



The pause continues!




Forget about 2015 being the hottest year on record, as far as the satellites are concerned at least.

Despite the strongest El Nino conditions since 1998, UAH data for November actually shows a drop of 0.10C since the month before.  

The current El Nino has been running much stronger for the last six months than the 2010 version did at anytime. While atmospheric temperatures would be expected to lag by between three and six months, it is nevertheless remarkable that this year’s temperatures are still well below those in 2010. 






I would still expect temperatures to rise for the next few months, but it looks unlikely that the 12-month average will go above its peak in 2010, and certainly nowhere near 1998’s.


I’ll update once RSS figures are out, and ESRL update their ENSO summary.



  1. December 2, 2015 6:13 pm

    Paul: As I understand it the ENSO index illustrates warm water sloshing from the western Pacific to the eastern Pacific, causing weather effects that ripple around the globe. But for the life of me I do not understand why a positive index means a warmer world? Where did the excess energy come from?

    • December 2, 2015 6:33 pm

      The warm water normally gets pushed west due to the trade winds, this effectively builds it up below the surface in the western Pacific.

      During El Nino, the winds reverse and the warm water sloshes back east where it all returns to the surface. As you say, there is no extra energy in the system, it is simply redistributed from below the surface to the surface, where it then transfers to the atmosphere.

      Think of it as stirring a cup of tea to cool it down.

      • AndyG55 permalink
        December 3, 2015 3:14 am

        “stirring a cup of tea to cool it down.”

        Yep, El Nino is an ocean COOLING event. !

    • dave permalink
      December 3, 2015 10:10 am

      It is like a hot flush in a menopausal woman – more apparent than real.
      My wife didn’t see me write that.

  2. December 3, 2015 12:32 am

    Bob Tisdale has ben showing that ENSO is a sunlight-fueled processes.

    See “New Paper Calls into Question Reanalysis-Based and Climate Model-Based Explanations for the Slowdown in Global Surface Warming”, Bob Tisdale, Climate Observations, at

    See “The 2014_15 El Niño Was Not Focused on the Region Used By NOAA for their Oceanic NINO Index”, at

    And Kevin Trenberth agrees:
    See “ClimateProgress’s Joe Romm Is Promoting a Skeptical View of Global Warming: El Niño-Caused Steps”, at

    Also see “May 2015 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly & Model-Data Difference Update”, at

    “The warm water for El Niños is furnished by sunlight, not manmade greenhouse gases, during La Niña events.”

  3. AndyG55 permalink
    December 3, 2015 7:14 am

    UAH November Global is in. a slight drop to +0.33Cº anomaly.

    On a year to end November basis.. anomaly Cº in order from least cold.

    1998 — 0.505
    2010 — 0.366
    2015 — 0.253

    By my calculations that means that December needs an anomaly of +2.772Cº for 2015 to be the “hottest heifer”

    • AndyG55 permalink
      December 3, 2015 9:01 am

      Gees, doesn’t anyone check my calculations 😉

      ie .. I goofed a bit.

      I’ll leave someone else to correct it.

  4. December 3, 2015 7:31 am

    Once El Nino is over we could be in for the big cooldown. They love the word “could”.

  5. December 3, 2015 3:03 pm

    Paul: So when there is a la ninya, energy is stored below the surface and the world cools, opposite for el ninyo, net effect zero, why the big fuss?

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