House Of Commons Library Misleads MP’s
By Paul Homewood
Bishop Hill has an interesting post tonight, Library Manoeuvres.
The opposition have called a debate on the Cumbria floods tomorrow, and so the House of Commons Library has issued a briefing paper to MPs. There’s lot to amuse. For example, I read with interest that:
…there is a general understanding that climate change is likely to be linked to increased winter rain in the UK.
I think it’s fair to say that this is complete drivel. As Richard Betts has quite rightly noted, predictions of UK climate are incredibly difficult because of our geographical position. Most commentators also agree that GCMs are useless when it comes to rainfall. So predictions about UK rainfall are almost impossible to take seriously. The "increased winter rain" story is of course derived from the UKCP09 climate projections, which are so wrong they put even Lord Deben in the shade. The idea that there is a "general understanding" of anything based on this farce of a computer simulation is preposterous.
Two quick comments:
1) Contrary to popular belief, there has been little trend in winter rainfall in the UK, climate change or not, as the Met Office themselves admit.
2) The study, Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective, carried out by the AMS, in conjunction with Met Office scientists, investigated the record winter rainfall of 2013/14, and found that it was the result of atmospheric circulation patterns, with no anthropogenic influence discernible.
It also found:
Consistent with our findings, a larger ensemble of CMIP5 models shows no significant change in rainfall over the United Kingdom during cold seasons until the second half of the century, when wet winters are projected to increase in frequency (van Oldenborgh et al. 2013).
It is shocking that the House of Commons Library, which is supposed to offer factual and impartial advice, should supply MP’s with such misleading and inaccurate information.