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Mild Start To December

December 23, 2015
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood 

  

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 http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/12/16/mild-start-to-december/

 

 

It has certainly been an unseasonably warm December so far, and one that is forecast to continue. However, it is certainly not unprecedented.

As the Met Office indicate, 1979, 2000 and 2006 were similar. But the warmest December on record was actually back in 1934. (Now why would the Met Office only be looking at figures dating back to 1960?)

 

The Met Office Monthly Weather Report for December 1934 shows a very similar set of weather patterns:

 

 

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http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/12/16/mild-start-to-december/

 

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In other words, we find a similar pattern to this year, with most of the month being dominated by a series of depressions coming in from the Atlantic.

There is one slight difference, in that the worst of the rain seems to have hit the southern half of the country, whereas this time it is the North West that has received most rain. In fact, 1934 is still the wettest December on record in England SW & S Wales. (It is worth noting that it was also the south which was worst hit in December 1929, which remains the wettest December on record in the UK).

Note also the comment that the average Greenwich temperature was even higher in 1852. Also that birds were laying eggs!

 

 

 

Sources

Rainfall data from the Met Office

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/datasets

11 Comments leave one →
  1. rah permalink
    December 23, 2015 3:13 pm

    Warm here in the eastern US now also. Forecast to get up to 64 deg. F here in central Indiana today with heavy thunderstorms to hit this afternoon. Down the SW of us in western Kentucky and Tennessee on down to Alabama they are more than likely going to have some tornadoes today. Let us hope that nobody gets their Christmas ruined by the loss of property or life.

    But that is all going to flip soon according to the forecasts. While the western US is having a strong winter now come early January they should be warmer than normal while we in the east are colder than normal.

    Another El Nino winter not unlike 5 of the last 6 El Nino winters.

  2. December 23, 2015 3:27 pm

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News.

  3. Bloke down the pub permalink
    December 23, 2015 4:12 pm

    There is also this extract from Pepys’ diary for the 21st December that shows that everything that goes around, comes around. https://books.google.pt/books?id=lhMCAAAAYAAJ&pg=PA142&lpg=PA142&hl=pt-PT#v=onepage&q&f=false

    • john cooknell permalink
      December 23, 2015 9:30 pm

      Bloke down the Pub, the extract you show from Pepys diary was broadcast by Eddie Mair on the BBC Radio 4 PM programme, as a response to all the “unprecedented” unseasonable weather stories, and the undoubted plague and pestilence that is going to follow.

      in 1661 Parliament, the Church and the Monarch (Charles 2) also got concerned about plague and pestilence, and ordered the population to fast and pray for the return of “seasonable weather. Pepys himself seems to have been a bit “off message” and had a good lunch and enjoyed himself!

      As far as I can tell the sermon from the Bishop of St David’s appears to have worked and the weather turned!

      Samuel Pepys 21st jan 1661

      It is strange what weather we have had all this winter; no cold at all; but the ways are dusty, and the flyes fly up and down, and the rose-bushes are full of leaves, such a time of the year as was never known in this world before here.

      House Of Lords 11th jan 1662 (from the House of Lords records on line)

      The Fast to be observed in Westm. Abbey, and the Bp. of St. David’s to preach.
      ¶Whereas His Majesty hath been pleased, by Proclamation, upon the Unseasonableness of the Weather, to command a general and public Fast, to be religiously and solemnly kept, within the Cities of London and Westm. and Places adjacent: It is ORDERED, by the Lords Spiritual and Temporal, in Parliament assembled.

      Samuel Pepys 15 jan 1662

      fast day ordered by the Parliament, to pray for more seasonable weather; it having hitherto been summer weather, that it is, both as to warmth and every other thing, just as if it were the middle of May or June, which do threaten a plague (as all men think) to follow, for so it was almost the last winter; and the whole year after hath been a very sickly time to this day

  4. Dorian permalink
    December 23, 2015 4:23 pm

    I think the real killer here is that, as stated in the news clipping, that it was 46.9F in December 1841, equating to 8.3C. The MET Office, ludicrously does away with this temperature by focusing on a 7.1C back in 1979. How convenient it is, to wipe out the previous 139 years of record temperature history. Note, that this temperature in itself was only 0.2C below what was usually considered an April norm!

    Here we have a December, in 1841, that was akin to a normally expected April, and the MET Office missed that! Hardly. Furthermore, this occurred just as the world was exiting the Little Ice Age. Nearly 140 years after you would hope the things were getting warmer.

    There is the entirely plausible scenario that this temperature recurrence has more to do with a world starting to cool and thus retracing temperature trends of the past than to a struggling warming world failing to surpass historical highs. When you retrace trends from the past, and not set new ones, it means we are heading back where we came from, and where we came from, was a very much colder planet.

    Think about this, the end of the LIA was to many experts around 1850. It is 160 years later, and we could be heading back into another LIA, which would be more normal than a warming trend. So between now and the cold of the next LIA, we are looking at most 160 years. Only problem is, LIA come faster than they go away. All cold periods have come faster than they have left. So it is entirely possible with another LIA arriving, that children born today, by the time they are old, could be very well find themselves into the next LIA. What does that mean? If you think it only means only cold weather, think again.

    For instance, piping. Today everyone is installing plastic of PVC/PEX pipes for passing water. Do you know what happens to PVC when it gets really cold, it gets brittle. Piping everywhere will brake. If you use copper, you are better off, it is easier to insulate and heat. But who does copper these days? Piping is going to be a real problem. Then there are sewers. During the last LIA, the ground in England froze down to over a meter deep. Everything will freeze and clog up. Then there is the snow, living in remote areas, that is, areas where there is only one major arterial route will not work. There will be so much snow, that it will be impossible to keep all the roads clean, and then, where do you put all the snow that are cleared from the roads? Furthermore, imagine, continuous snow from November to March, perhaps to April. Forget about a growing season, it will be cut short by at least 1 month, and more like 2 months. There will be no time to grow anything. Ah so you maybe think greenhouses. Do you see green houses in Norway that feed a nation? Not going to happen, and if you did, imagine the cost! You think food is expensive now, just wait and see.

    Just imagine, Manchester, or even London! During winter, they will be snowed in. The Thames will freeze over, and you will be able to cross it, by car!

    And all this can be within one life time from today. Just imagine what your children today will be saying about their stupid idiotic parents, when they too have children and grandchildren. They will say,”my idiotic parents and their generation all thought the world was warming, and here we are, with our infrastructure designed for a warming world, where plastic water pipes are shattered, solar panels that are under 20 feet of snow, roads that are under 1 meter of ice, the railways working for only 4 or 5 months out of the year, and not even enough electricity to boil a cup of tea, all because of their stupid ideological nonsense.”

    Look very carefully around you next time when you walk outside. Think about where you live, what you rely on to get to places, what infrastructure you have around you. Can your lifestyle, the place where you live, the necessities of life be sustained if things get really cold? And I do mean really cold! Winters where snows fall for 5 or 6 months. Temperatures that go below zero of -10C and stay there, for months (and even touching -20C or less). Do you live in a stone/block house? Think that is wise? Do you live far away from work or the stores and require not just a car, but good roads, 24 hours a day? That house you are so proud off, and thinking you will leave it for the kids, what kind of pipes does it have? Is it located on low or high ground? Snow piles up quite high if you are on low ground. And when summer comes, and it will eventually come, where is all that run off water going to go? Is your area ready for that.

    Global warmers, I have a question for you. How much are you prepared to risk for your selfishness? For your children and grandchildren, those that you’ve seen born, will one day, curse you for your stupidity, and what you have left them.

    BTW….the last time when there was a LIA, Iceland was literally iced in, that’s right, the entire island was iced in, no ships, nothing, for the entire winter. There was so much ice in the northern Atlantic, that the Inuit from Canada, found themselves coming to Iceland.

    Keep an eye on those now new growing glaciers in Scotland. When they start heading south, it wont be just the Scots that you will be worried about when they migrate south!

    If anybody needs more information about what it could be like when an ice age arrives, contact the Met Office, they have all the facts. Your problem will be though, just trying to get them to tell you the truth.

  5. xmetman permalink
    December 24, 2015 9:19 pm

    Paul

    I know that you like the daily CET series, and at the moment December 2015 is way out in front to be the mildest since the daily series started in 1772. One other thing that seems to have slipped everyone’s attention is that the Autumn of 2015 (calendar) was the second warmest on record as far as I can make out back to 1772 as well.

    https://xmetman.wordpress.com/2015/12/22/second-warmest-autumn/

    Bruce.

    • December 24, 2015 9:40 pm

      It’s weather, Bruce.

      • xmetman permalink
        December 24, 2015 11:12 pm

        Yes, it’s great isn’t it – have a good Christmas!

  6. catweazle666 permalink
    December 25, 2015 1:08 am

    ” (Now why would the Met Office only be looking at figures dating back to 1960?)”

    “Records began” the day after the last time there was a warmest/wettest/coldest/etc. day since “records began”.

  7. catweazle666 permalink
    December 25, 2015 1:09 am

    Oh, nearly forgot – Happy Christmas!

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