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Latest Nonsense: Climate Change To Lead To Fruit & Veg Shortage

March 3, 2016

By Paul Homewood 


h/t Tom0Mason 




Dear little Emily is on form again today in the Telegraph:



Climate change could lead to more than 1,200 extra deaths a year in the UK by 2050 as global warming causes fruit and vegetable shortages, new research suggests.

The typical British diet will deteriorate as the effects of climate change hit crop production, resulting in supply shortages and pushing up prices, Oxford University researchers said.

This will increase the number of deaths for which poor diet is a risk factor – more than offsetting a reduction in deaths from obesity that may be seen as the effects of global warming push up food prices, they warn.


Deaths will increase due to poor diets  Photo: Getty


Dr Marco Springmann from the Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food, said: “You could expect in the UK the reduction in fruit and vegetable consumption would be the number one risk factor.

“The immediate cause of the reduction in fruit and vegetable consumption are the climatic shocks: basically, less can be grown, that leads to farmers probably using more land, and also the prices go up.

“As a combination of less production and higher prices there will be a reduction in the consumption.”

In a report, the researchers estimate that overall, more than 500,000 extra adult deaths could be caused globally in 2050 due to the impact of climate change on diets.

The reduction in fruit and vegetable consumption is expected to be the primary killer, accounting for 534,000 extra deaths. This will be only slightly offset by 29,000 fewer deaths from lower red meat consumption.

Rising food prices will result in about 266,000 more people dying due to being underweight – but this will almost be cancelled out by 260,000 fewer deaths from obesity, it finds.

The report forecasts that overall the UK will see extra 25 adult deaths per million people as a result of the “effect of climate change on food production”. This implies more than 1,200 deaths a year, based on the current UK adult population of more than 50 million people.

Dr Springmann said the study showed climate change would have a “substantial negative impact on future mortality, even under optimistic scenarios” and said governments should scale up public health programmes.


Perhaps someone needs to tell her global output of fruit and veg has been steadily rising since 1970. And the same with cereals and total agricultural production value:







Closer to home, the warmest year on record brought ideal weather for fruit growers in the UK:




Not to mention cereal harvests as well:





Now I realise that there are many reasons for all of this good news, but does anybody seriously believe that these rising trends won’

  1. R2Dtoo permalink
    March 3, 2016 2:15 pm

    To say the least, universities worldwide have gone bat-poop crazy with computer games. If anything, fruits and veggies will increase in importance as food costs increase and the folks go back to gardening. A warmer world, if it actually happens, will be a more productive world, as the graphs clearly show.

  2. March 3, 2016 2:25 pm

    They should read the history of the Medieval Warming when England “grew” better wine than France….reliably, France was peeved.

    Our little green friends, the plants, love increased CO2. Also, warmer temperatures make tomatoes, peppers, etc. (all originally from Mexico and Central America), clap their little leaves. Beans and squash from the same origins also chime in. This is totally teleological but I wanted to put it in terms with which the green meanies could identify.

  3. March 3, 2016 2:33 pm

    The only thing that’s going to create a shortage is government itself. Local, state and federal govs are making it more difficult to ranch and farm, and then people whine about eating local while we import more and more food. If you’re not regulated to death, the taxes will turn your beautiful land into a subdivision.

  4. March 3, 2016 3:25 pm

    The AGW far-left loonies look bat-crap crazy. They need to read history – the warmer it gets the better the growing season.

  5. David Richardson permalink
    March 3, 2016 3:34 pm

    ” resulting in supply shortages and pushing up prices, Oxford University researchers said. ”

    Didn’t this used to be one of the best Universities in the world? Obviously another early victim of Global Warming.

    10 minutes thought informs one that this stuff is utter drivel and as Paul demonstrates is the opposite of what is actually happening – together with satellite evidence of a greening planet.

    What kind of research leads to that sort of conclusion – oh a model into which the required answer has been fudged no doubt.

  6. graphicconception permalink
    March 3, 2016 3:53 pm

    Currently, we throw away about half our fruit and veg because its appearance does not match the standards of the big supermarkets.

    So we actually already grow much more than we need.

    • AZ1971 permalink
      March 3, 2016 6:31 pm

      Exactly. And much of that malformed fruit and veg could be composted into delicious, viable bacon. My father had a sow and piglets as a boy growing up in the 1930’s and he slopped them daily with whey and kitchen scraps. I’d say it makes much more sense to let pigs eat those food stuffs we’re throwing away than simply tossing into a compost or garbage pit.

      • johnmarshall permalink
        March 4, 2016 12:39 pm

        EU rules prevent feeding pigs on scraps. Another good reason to leave.

  7. Duke Silver permalink
    March 3, 2016 4:34 pm

    Well, if it really were warming…… my crop of veggies and fruits would stinking love it and ask for more. If my garden could speak in regards to more CO2, H2O or warmth it would say “please sir, may I have another”?

  8. March 3, 2016 6:00 pm

    Since when did unsatisfied demand lead to lower production?

  9. Joe Public permalink
    March 3, 2016 6:44 pm

    Not everyone is concerned about a little global warming.

    Coffee producers and citrus growers fear the effects of frost which rapidly reduces their yields:

    “Effects of Frost on South American Coffee Beans

    With new technological capabilities, news of Brazil coffee frosts echoes around the world within a matter of minutes. Correspondingly, coffee prices usually jump due to expectations of a worldwide coffee shortage. Brazil produces nearly twenty-five million 60 Kg sacks of coffee. This is approximately 25% of the world’s supply. A frost has far reaching effects since it can reduce or completely annihilate much of the world supply in a matter of one day.”

    [My bold]

    And / or:

    “Orange-juice futures jumped to a five-month high in New York after frigid weather damaged citrus crops in Florida, the world’s second-biggest grower.
    Temperatures in about 75 percent of the state’s citrus-growing region were cold enough for frost, with a hard freeze in about 25 percent of the area, forecaster MDA EarthSat Weather said today in a report.”

    • Dave Ward permalink
      March 3, 2016 7:17 pm

      They’ll have to do the same as some orchards do in cold weather – employ helicopters to fly at low level up and down the rows of trees, stirring up the air to prevent frost forming. And, as a side effect, adding some extra CO2 to their food supply!

  10. johnbuk permalink
    March 3, 2016 11:45 pm

    Good spot by a commenter named “Manfred” on Jo Nova’s blog –

    “Yes, I was looking through Oxford Martin School carefully. The dank Green finger print of UN globalisation is all over it. In keeping with the UN post-2015 Millennium Goals – the relevant UN goal (28) states:

    28. We commit to making fundamental changes in the way that our societies produce and consume goods and services. Governments, international organizations, the business sector and other non-State actors and individuals must contribute to changing unsustainable consumption and production patterns, including through the mobilization, from all sources, of financial and technical assistance to strengthen developing countries’ scientific, technological and innovative capacities to move towards more sustainable patterns of consumption and production.

    The Oxford collectiv have a central aim that states:

    Moderating demand involves starting a difficult public conversation about diets and the relative environmental footprint of different food types, in particular classes of meat…

    We must design the international governance of the food system so that globalisation benefits food security, the environment and the poor. We must realise that food security is central to achieving all the economic, environmental and development goals of humanity in the 21st century – we fail on food we fail on everything.

    There it is. In a nut shell. I couldn’t identify any other funding stream except intra-mural.”

  11. March 6, 2016 8:33 am

    …. and to bored dogs, to hens that will have troubles with their eggs, starving polar bears, less bees and the enumeration can continue. The answer is only one: adaptation. We will all have to adapt to whatever the future will bring. And, hopefully, we’ll do some proper research on human’s impact over climate…..

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