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Annual Variability In Central England Temperature

October 1, 2016

By Paul Homewood 


According to climate “experts”, we need to limit global warming to 1.5C, measured from pre industrial times. We are told that we are already up to about 1.0C.

But suppose we were to see another degree of warming, spread over the next century. Would we even notice it?


I have plotted annual CET temperatures below, showing the year on year variation:




As you can see, year on year changes of a degree or more are pretty common.

We may have noticed a bit of a change in the weather, maybe a nice summer or cold winter. But we have simply got on with life, without a problem.

Can we honestly say that a degree spread over a century or more would even be noticed?

  1. Broadlands permalink
    October 1, 2016 6:09 pm

    Paul…It doesn’t matter whether it’s Central England, the US or the globe. Year-over-year temperature trends will be almost imperceptibly small. A linear trend line through such data is almost level, “random”? As you point out what is noticed are large changes in weather, such as from 1917 through 1921 in the US when the mean annual temperature rose 3.8°F. in just four years. Of course?, NOAA has lowered those values so that 1917 is still the coldest but 1921 is no longer the “warmest year on record”. They moved it up 90 years to 2012… But, the sharp four year rise is still there. We haven’t noticed the weather nor, apparently, the change in their numbers?

  2. don penman permalink
    October 1, 2016 6:33 pm

    what if this happens again

  3. TinyCO2 permalink
    October 1, 2016 7:56 pm

    Will they burn you as a witch or a heretic?

    I have to admit to wondering what temperatures would be like once distributed over the nights, the high latitudes and the winters, and how much summers will warm in the hottest areas.

    • 1saveenergy permalink
      October 1, 2016 9:57 pm

      Witch one are you calling a ‘hairy tick’ ?? (:-))

      • TinyCO2 permalink
        October 2, 2016 11:13 am


        A ‘hairy tick’ is what warmists get when the planet doesn’t co-operate.

  4. Svend Ferdinandsen permalink
    October 1, 2016 11:09 pm

    It is popular to tell of highest temperatur anywhere. How about to tell about lowest temperature anywhere. There should be plenty of places where you observe the lowest ever temperature for the day, week, or month.
    Just to give some balance.

  5. Tony Price permalink
    October 1, 2016 11:14 pm

    Where on your linked page is any link to the data you used?

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